Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

lol

That's the problem. Whose figures?

Beyer figures?

Timeform figures?

Thorograph?

Ragozin?

homemade?

They all use various combinations of pace, weight, and ground loss on top of having different views on when and if to split out races. Figures reflect the beliefs and subjective analysis of the figure maker. They include different things and are often FAR apart.

Then of course, what if you thought the rail was good/bad, the track was speed favoring or tiring, etc..

Does that get included?

All of this is fine when you are gambling because you gravitate to the figures and use the trip insights that reflect you own way of thinking about things. But it gets a little dicey when you are talking about year end awards.

Fortunately, most of the time, you aren't going to need figures to figure out who was best because the best horses prove it on the track by accomplishing the most too.

I could see a limited use of figures in the following scenario.


Let's say there are two stars of the handicap division, one in New York who is winning all the Grade I's there, and one who has an Accelerate-style year out in California.


They meet in the BC Classic, but the track is off or some impossible longshot wins or for whatever reason there's a completely inconclusive result, with both of them finishing back in the pack.


In that situation, I could see voters looking at speed figures to say who had the better year, and if one had consistently better figures than the other one, that horse might get the nod.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I could see a limited use of figures in the following scenario.

Let's say there are two stars of the handicap division, one in New York who is winning all the Grade I's there, and one who has an Accelerate-style year out in California.

They meet in the BC Classic, but the track is off or some impossible longshot wins or for whatever reason there's a completely inconclusive result, with both of them finishing back in the pack.

In that situation, I could see voters looking at speed figures to say who had the better year, and if one had consistently better figures than the other one, that horse might get the nod.

That's sort the way I handicap anyway. I don't get too literal about figures because of the subjectivity involved in making them and the impact of race development and how the track is playing on final times. I'm looking more at who is beating who with what trip and just insisting the horse look like a contender on figures when the quality is less clear.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

Within divisions, I've never really found it necessary. For horse of the year, I don't really find the comparisons fair. I'd certainly give them a look in close calls.

For me it's not about looking at the figs to see who got the better ones. It's a judgement that's made along the way when you watch these horses run, see that they're putting up good times and figures, and you assess their quality. I think we've all seen superior horses lose and inferior horses win, and we can call them superior and inferior because of the quality we've determined them to be.

I was never impressed by Justify. I just wasn't. The figures he earned backed up my impression. That's usually the case. Some think he should win HOY because he won the TC, but I see a horse who a ton of non-TC-winning 3yos in years past would've beaten. Really think he'd have won had if he'd run against the crop of 2007 (Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun)? Or, forgetting the year here, but against Silver Charm, Bodgit, and Free House? Or beating Smarty Jones? American Pharoah? Etc. So I'm sorry if it's sacrilege, but I have to say the horse just wasn't that special, Triple Crown be damned.

So I look at HOY and the most superior horse this year was Accelerate. It's really just that elementary to me.

[GMB@BP]

Its hard to believe we need another 35 year drought to prove how hard wining those three races is. Lot easier to win watered down versions of the SA Derby and Pacific Classic and then a BC Classic where Catholic Boy and McKinzie where major contenders (other 3yo's) than it is to win 3 races where you cant pick and choose if your ready to run.

Accelerate had a really great year but historically it doesnt match the achievement of winning the TC.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Its hard to believe we need another 35 year drought to prove how hard wining those three races is. Lot easier to win watered down versions of the SA Derby and Pacific Classic and then a BC Classic where Catholic Boy and McKinzie where major contenders (other 3yo's) than it is to win 3 races where you cant pick and choose if your ready to run.

Accelerate had a really great year but historically it doesnt match the achievement of winning the TC.

If what Accelerate did was so much easier, how come it is so rare? Since the creation of the Pacific Classic, no other horse has done it (or anything analogous involving east coast stakes, such as going Suburban-Woodward-JCGC-BC Classic). Other than Cigar, there really hasn't been a horse who rattled off this many wins in the biggest Grade I routes for older horses, topped off by the BC Classic, in quite a long time.

[Tom]

Not much out there these days trying?

This debate is lasting longer than Justify did!

In 10 years, who will be remembered, Justify or Accelerate?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

For me it's not about looking at the figs to see who got the better ones. It's a judgement that's made along the way when you watch these horses run, see that they're putting up good times and figures, and you assess their quality. I think we've all seen superior horses lose and inferior horses win, and we can call them superior and inferior because of the quality we've determined them to be.

I was never impressed by Justify. I just wasn't. The figures he earned backed up my impression. That's usually the case. Some think he should win HOY because he won the TC, but I see a horse who a ton of non-TC-winning 3yos in years past would've beaten. Really think he'd have won had if he'd run against the crop of 2007 (Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun)? Or, forgetting the year here, but against Silver Charm, Bodgit, and Free House? Or beating Smarty Jones? American Pharoah? Etc. So I'm sorry if it's sacrilege, but I have to say the horse just wasn't that special, Triple Crown be damned.

So I look at HOY and the most superior horse this year was Accelerate. It's really just that elementary to me.

I guess it depends on the figures you use. I though Justify was a very good 3yo, certainly above par in the first two races, don't remember if he was in the Belmont though I doubt it. I voted for Accelerate, but it could have gone either way for me. I have no problem with a vote for either horse.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Its hard to believe we need another 35 year drought to prove how hard wining those three races is. Lot easier to win watered down versions of the SA Derby and Pacific Classic and then a BC Classic where Catholic Boy and McKinzie where major contenders (other 3yo's) than it is to win 3 races where you cant pick and choose if your ready to run.

Accelerate had a really great year but historically it doesnt match the achievement of winning the TC.

Excellent point. We had a nationally recognized figure state on a popular show that winning the TC wasn't as hard to do as it used to be. Because we had 2 in a 4 year period after going 37 years without one. If it gets to be 8 to 10 years before we have another, the old arguments for spreading the races out and shortening them up will rise back to the top again.

I think this is a great display of why handicappers have it so tough. Most of them are their own worst enemy.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I guess it depends on the figures you use. I though Justify was a very good 3yo, certainly above par in the first two races, don't remember if he was in the Belmont though I doubt it. I voted for Accelerate, but it could have gone either way for me. I have no problem with a vote for either horse.

His figures for the 4 grade 1 races he ran

133
125
125
125

but here is the kicker, the 6F pace figures were
129
133
137
125

and the half mile splits were even higher.

That is a heck of a lot of talent and consistency for a young horse.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Other than Cigar, there really hasn't been a horse who rattled off this many wins in the biggest Grade I routes for older horses, topped off by the BC Classic, in quite a long time.

Accelerate 2018: 7 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Gun Runner 2017: 6 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Blame 2010: 5 starts, 3 Grade 1s
Invasor 2006: 5 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Saint Liam 2005: 6 starts, 3 Grade 1s

Does Accelerate stick out in that list?

In addition, Skip Away, Arrogate, Pleasantly Perfect, and Curlin had similar streaks between seasons each of which included a victory in the BC Classic.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Accelerate 2018: 7 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Gun Runner 2017: 6 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Blame 2010: 5 starts, 3 Grade 1s
Invasor 2006: 5 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Saint Liam 2005: 6 starts, 3 Grade 1s

Does Accelerate stick out in that list?

In addition, Skip Away, Arrogate, Pleasantly Perfect, and Curlin had similar streaks between seasons each of which included a victory in the BC Classic.

Not really. A few of those grade ones had dreadful fields. That's not Sadler's fault or anything. It's just not some legendary achievement.

[ultracapper]

My historical knowledge is lame compared to the majority of others here, so I have to ask, how did the Zenyatta/Rachel Alexandra argument turn out that year?

Obviously no TC winner involved, but there is a winner of a bunch of Gr1 there.

Edit: Maybe this doesn't even apply to this argument.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Accelerate 2018: 7 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Gun Runner 2017: 6 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Blame 2010: 5 starts, 3 Grade 1s
Invasor 2006: 5 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Saint Liam 2005: 6 starts, 3 Grade 1s

Does Accelerate stick out in that list?

In addition, Skip Away, Arrogate, Pleasantly Perfect, and Curlin had similar streaks between seasons each of which included a victory in the BC Classic.

Spalding, next time read the post before popping off.

I didn't say "Grade I's". I said the biggest Grade I routes for older horses. I DELIBERATELY said that because there's a particular table Accelerate ran that those others did not.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Accelerate 2018: 7 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Gun Runner 2017: 6 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Blame 2010: 5 starts, 3 Grade 1s
Invasor 2006: 5 starts, 4 Grade 1s
Saint Liam 2005: 6 starts, 3 Grade 1s

Does Accelerate stick out in that list?

In addition, Skip Away, Arrogate, Pleasantly Perfect, and Curlin had similar streaks between seasons each of which included a victory in the BC Classic.

Didn't Accelerate win 5 G1s, the 4 SoCal races and the BC?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Spalding, next time read the post before popping off.

I didn't say "Grade I's". I said the biggest Grade I routes for older horses. I DELIBERATELY said that because there's a particular table Accelerate ran that those others did not.

Talk about splitting hairs... We're supposed to be mind readers on what you think are the "biggest" Grade 1 routes are for older horses? There's absolutely nothing "deliberate" about your vague terminology.

The Whitney? The Stephen Foster? The Woodward? The Jockey Club Gold Cup? don't qualify? Who knew?

But I suppose it suits your purpose of being able to change the goal posts at will such that Accelerate can be mentioned in the same breath with Cigar over the likes of Skip Away, Curlin, Mineshaft, Ghostzapper, etc.

And the whole premise of your post was silly to begin with. Yeah that ancient 28-year saga of the Pac Classic and all those horses that came from far and wide to run in some conveniently made up (after the fact) handicap superfecta in California over the course of 9-months really stacks up well to a 100+ year historical triple of classic races run in a 5-week span that has been the pinnacle of the sport since the interwar period of the 20th century.