Breeders cup- Most likely winner, best value and tosses

[Fred Mertz]

I'll bet Blue Prize with my life savings...$40 bucks.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Fuss

I'm not crazy when I say .. Le Pelosa , 2nd race in US is likely a candidate for racing to a new TOP, and NOR is a candidate for a bounce?

I won't disagree on Le Pelosa. The horse has a solid J/T combo for turf invaders. I don't think NOR is a bouncer. Chad Brown is notorious for having his horses cranked on the third out. He has also nailed three of the last four of these. I'll also point out the last two outings for this horse were on yielding courses so I'd personally use a little caution comparing fractions and pace figures to a firm track.

[classhandicapper]

Horses like La Pelosa are why I have a tough time taking short prices on US horses on turf against a few foreigners.

La Pelosa didn't look like an especially high quality horse coming in and she wasn't fast either, but she improved her Thorograph figure by MORE than 4 points that day. That kind of thing happens all the time. For some it may be the addition of lasix and for others their Euro speed figures may be underrated relative to US counterparts because of race development and other issues. Either way or both, I know not to be too literal about time based figures out of Europe. I'd way rather watch the replays and try to get a line on the horses qualitatively. That of course is a lot tougher in this case because there aren't many 2yo shippers into the US and the historical record tells you nothing about "this crop".

PS: Pivottina also improved her figure by over 4 TG points. That's a big jump.

[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

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[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...11644471500800

That's a bit of an ambiguous trip to me.

He got bumped hard twice out of the gate. That caused him to drop way out of it relative to his previous running style. But I have that race marked as loaded with early speed. The race then kind of collapsed. So he may have actually benefited to some degree by being taken off the pace, albeit unintentionally. Still, that was quite a run.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's a bit of an ambiguous trip to me.

He got bumped hard twice out of the gate. That caused him to drop way out of it relative to his previous running style. But I have that race marked as loaded with early speed. The race then kind of collapsed. So he may have actually benefited to some degree by being taken off the pace, albeit unintentionally. Still, that was quite a run.

Right, it did collapse but given the amount of trouble and the probability that he'll get a stalking and ground saving trip here makes him tough IMO.

[azeri98]

I think Enable is the most likely winner unless she doesn't care for the soft turf, if not her than I think it's Imperial Hint in the Sprint. I love Code of Honor in the Juvenille

Value plays are
Firenze Fire
Eziyra
Oscar Performance, Expert Eye
Yoshida
Blue Prize
Restless Rider
Line of Duty
Standard Deviation

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Right, it did collapse but given the amount of trouble and the probability that he'll get a stalking and ground saving trip here makes him tough IMO.

I have no problem at all with using that horse. Good luck.

Personally, I'm having a tough time coming up with any really solid plays at good prices, but I haven't finished. I'm just getting started.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I have no problem at all with using that horse. Good luck.

Personally, I'm having a tough time coming up with any really solid plays at good prices, but I haven't finished. I'm just getting started.

Another problem could be with the condition of the turf course and how the inside is playing. I guess I'll have to make up my mind on Friday. GL to you as well.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by azeri98

I love Code of Honor in the Juvenille

I'm interested in Code of Honor also, but it looks like a tough group.

[Andy Asaro]

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[trifecta]

Originally Posted by cj

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

Newspaperofrecord is the likely winner of the Juvenile Filly Turf because of her ability, especially on yielding turf, but I believe Concrete Rose, one of three fillies that are 2 for 2 lifetime (Newspaperofrecord and East are the other two) has a shot at the upset.

She closed well in both of her starts, including winning her last drawing away. The time wasn't special but she made it look fairly easy, sitting just off the pace and sweeping by after they turned for home.

[Robert Fischer]

Newspaperofrecord looks tough.

She may end up dictating some of my race selection for Friday, once I've seen the bigger picture.

She should be on or right near early, and it's hard to find anyone who is really going to collapse the pace. Concrete Rose should be prominent, having drawn the rail and sporting solid pace figures. Summering isn't typically ridden like a sprinter in spite of the 'Cali reputation for speed.

Either Newspaperofrecord has an off night, or she trounces this field up front, or East is also some freak, and we have some very rare special edition of the JFT...

East could be good, and you've got 17 seconds to find a decent spot, but even 3-wide and off the pace is a disadvantage if Newspaperofrecord is out front dictating a moderate pace.

With prices to come up for the board; I find The Mackem Bullet arousing. She seems relatively game, and I have a thing for foreign shippers who have to stretch out. The scenario suits particularly well here. Lily's Candle is solid at a shorter price.

[jay68802]

Saturday Race #3 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Grade I


Finley'sluckycharm 10-1

Won 3 of last 4 races coming off a break, toss the turf try and she is 3 for 3. Shows quite a few races that can win here. Is 6 for 7 at Churchill Downs, with the lone loss coming on a off track.