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Old 11-16-2018, 09:51 PM   #31
Andrick
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Basically, a dry mvr surfce tends to fvor wide(ish) stalkers that bid aggressively on the turn.
Yes. This was especially true in late Jan to early Feb of last year's meet, Mark. They had to cancel about a week worth of racing dates due to the track freezing, and once they got back to running, horses getting that trip from an outside gate while sitting mid-pack or better early were winning at an incredible rate and at decent to very good prices. Many times the exacta was made up of these types during that period of time as well. If I'm remembering correctly, it played that way for a good two weeks after the track thawed out. The track then did a complete 180 after that (after some rain or wet snow over a couple of days I do believe) and played heavily to the inside path for an extended period of time after that.

It's something to keep an eye on if the same situation presents itself this winter.
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Old 11-16-2018, 10:17 PM   #32
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Yes. This was especially true in late Jan to early Feb of last year's meet, Mark. They had to cancel about a week worth of racing dates due to the track freezing, and once they got back to running, horses getting that trip from an outside gate while sitting mid-pack or better early were winning at an incredible rate and at decent to very good prices. Many times the exacta was made up of these types during that period of time as well. If I'm remembering correctly, it played that way for a good two weeks after the track thawed out. The track then did a complete 180 after that (after some rain or wet snow over a couple of days I do believe) and played heavily to the inside path for an extended period of time after that.

It's something to keep an eye on if the same situation presents itself this winter.
tx for the response, sir..just for kicks, i'll check my bias notes ( i keep them on my smart phone) from last year to see if we concurred on the transformation.......I do think that maintenance measures taken to combat extreme weather are usully more responsible than the extreme weather for temporary biases...you seem very sharp,,stay in touch..ok??

btw..mahoning has a different track-super this year, so that might alter things from last season........much like when mountaineer's super informally retired two years , or so, ago..and his underlings proved much better at maintaining a fair surface, even eradicating mnr's notorious dead-rail stigma
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Old 11-16-2018, 10:51 PM   #33
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tx for the response, sir..just for kicks, i'll check my bias notes ( i keep them on my smart phone) from last year to see if we concurred on the transformation.......I do think that maintenance measures taken to combat extreme weather are usully more responsible than the extreme weather for temporary biases...you seem very sharp,,stay in touch..ok??

btw..mahoning has a different track-super this year, so that might alter things from last season........much like when mountaineer's super informally retired two years , or so, ago..and his underlings proved much better at maintaining a fair surface, even eradicating mnr's notorious dead-rail stigma
Cheers Mark. If it's not too much trouble for you I would certainly appreciate you sharing any information you have saved from that time regarding any biases at the track. I played it as having that bias at the time and had a lot of success doing so. But it also could have simply been me landing on logical horses who went off at overlaid prices.

I do share your sentiments on the 1st page in regards to how great the track is to play, though. Next to Woodbine it's become my 2nd favourite track to play, and I've spent the last year trying to talk it up to any friend of mine who already is or has any interest in handicapping. Lots of great opportunities present themselves there. Perhaps moreso than any other track I've played with even a little bit of regularity.
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Old 11-19-2018, 08:36 AM   #34
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Steel Valley Sprint

14 3 Year Old's are entered today for Mahoning Valley's richest race. Nationally known Trainers Ness, Stall, Norm McKnight, McPeek, Victoria Oliver and others, along with local Trainers Gary Johnson and Mike Rone are among the many with a chance in this 250K 6 Furlong event. Channing Hill, Joe Bravo, Eurico Da Silva, Tyler Gaffalione, B J Hernandez, Jose Lezcano and Frankie Pennington are named to ride. Keep an eye on local jock Luis Colon. He's aboard # Machismo for Loooch Racing and Johnson. Both horse and jock have immense talent but have yet to shine in the national spotlight.
Other contenders IMO:
# Honorable Treasure: Much improved with blinks and B J in saddle.
# Wyatt's Town: Only true 6 furlong specialist on 4 race winning streak.
# Cowboy Creed: Deep closer will be flying late. Rail draw hurts chances.
# Trigger Warning: Last win came at Presque Isle. Overmatched vs Gr 1's.
# Bobby's Wicked One: Lone win came in debut MSW at Fairgrounds at 2.
# Still Having Fun: Won the Woody Stephens at 7F in June. A notch below


Good Luck to all!


RR
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Old 11-19-2018, 09:25 AM   #35
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14 3 Year Old's are entered today for Mahoning Valley's richest race. Nationally known Trainers Ness, Stall, Norm McKnight, McPeek, Victoria Oliver and others, along with local Trainers Gary Johnson and Mike Rone are among the many with a chance in this 250K 6 Furlong event. Channing Hill, Joe Bravo, Eurico Da Silva, Tyler Gaffalione, B J Hernandez, Jose Lezcano and Frankie Pennington are named to ride. Keep an eye on local jock Luis Colon. He's aboard # Machismo for Loooch Racing and Johnson. Both horse and jock have immense talent but have yet to shine in the national spotlight.
Other contenders IMO:
# Honorable Treasure: Much improved with blinks and B J in saddle.
# Wyatt's Town: Only true 6 furlong specialist on 4 race winning streak.
# Cowboy Creed: Deep closer will be flying late. Rail draw hurts chances.
# Trigger Warning: Last win came at Presque Isle. Overmatched vs Gr 1's.
# Bobby's Wicked One: Lone win came in debut MSW at Fairgrounds at 2.
# Still Having Fun: Won the Woody Stephens at 7F in June. A notch below


Good Luck to all!


RR
Nice commentary....Given the motherlode of zip in this race, I would be surprised if one or two of the speeds don't scratch............and just to piggyback your short profiles: The 12 horse took too many tries to clear the low alw condition, but the figs on two of his last three make him a player..and a player who can pass horses and gets first run on the deep closers..my questions about him involve the sharp regression tht follows every peak effort, and I wonder why a horse that ran so fast (on at least one occasion) as a two yr old hasn't done more as a three year old..tricky call................the 6 horse, a pace-oriented router, tries a different game and will have to close..i do suspect the ohio derby was his best effort, which could be relevant, since the horse lives and trains in ohio, a state still somewhat notorious for permissive med policies................also, i think the 10 horse. who has consistently posted this field's best numbers, is better than his recent form..a wide early move compromised him last time, and i don't think those full routes, even at one-turn, really played to his strength..in addition, the competition in some of his pivotal races was lethal...i like him best in late mode, and the setup rocks...............to summarize, unless late scratches alter the pace scenario, or the surface proves extremely speed, or rail, favoring, my main players are numbers 6 and 10...

Last edited by mountainman; 11-19-2018 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 11-19-2018, 09:28 AM   #36
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nice commentary....Given the motherlode of zip in this race, I would be surprised if one or two of the speeds don't scratch............and just to piggyback your short profiles: The 12 horse took tooo many tries to clear the low alw condition, but the figs on two of his last three make him a player..and a player who can pass horses and gets first run on the deep closers..my questions about him involve the sharp regression tht follows every peak effort, and I wonder why a horse that ran so fast (on at least one occasion) as a two yr old hasn't done more as a three year old..tricky call................the six horse, a pace-oriented router, tries a different game and will have to close..i do suspect the ohio derby was his best effort, which could be relevant, since the horse lives and trains in ohio, a state still somewhat notorious for permissive med policies................also, i think the 10 horse is better than his recent form..a wide early move compromised him last time, and i don't think a full route, even at one-turn, really plays to his strength..in addition, the competition in some of his pivotal races was lethal...i like him best in late mode, and the setup rocks...............to summarize, unless late scratches alter the pace scenario, or the surface proves extremely speed, or rail, favoring, my main players are numbers 6 and 10...
and scratched.
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Old 11-19-2018, 09:40 AM   #37
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Mark is a good guy

Maybe 5,6,7 years ago, before my heart-surgery, Mountainman sent me a handicapping piece he had written. It was nice. He sent it via snail mail to my residence (at that time in steel country Western Pa.).

Don't remember the exact content per se. Maybe it was about condition-claimers? But I remember reading it, and re-reading it, and it being a useful tool. I was doing some small bridge-jumping back then, and it was a source of pride when my ADW sent me a letter to cease and desist.
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Old 11-19-2018, 10:16 AM   #38
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Maybe 5,6,7 years ago, before my heart-surgery, Mountainman sent me a handicapping piece he had written. It was nice. He sent it via snail mail to my residence (at that time in steel country Western Pa.).

Don't remember the exact content per se. Maybe it was about condition-claimers? But I remember reading it, and re-reading it, and it being a useful tool. I was doing some small bridge-jumping back then, and it was a source of pride when my ADW sent me a letter to cease and desist.
It was a piece for horse player magazne about sizing up small-track shippers. While one or two of my assigned articles ( profiling the BC juvenile fillies turf, for instance) strayed from my street cred, the one you mention was right in my wheelhouse and probably the most insightful.

btw...you do realize I am also a western pa. boy by origin and upbringing??? LOL..

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Old 11-19-2018, 10:29 AM   #39
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It was a piece for horse player magazne about sizing up small-track shippers. While one or two of my assigned articles ( profiling the BC juvenile fillies turf, for instance) strayed from my street cred, the one you mention was right in my wheelhouse and probably the most insightful.

btw...you do realize I am also a western pa. boy by origin and upbringing??? LOL..
That rings a bell.

Thought you were from the area. Father's side from Donora. Grandfather worked in the steel mill.
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Old 11-19-2018, 10:33 AM   #40
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I cannot resist handicapping threads. Looks like rain in the area so likely slop and I have no idea how that plays out the track bias. There is an abundance of speed in this race, and unlike a NYRA ( just a touch of trolling in guess) I expect the speed crew to all go hard early.

That leaves me with the 1,6,7 as the classiest or up and coming closers. Boxing 167 in the tri and exactas

Thanks Mountainman and RR for the insight. Mountainman, is the Mountain done for the year?
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Old 11-19-2018, 11:10 AM   #41
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Thanks Mountainman and RR for the insight. Mountainman, is the Mountain done for the year?
Resume racing this sunday. 14 makeup days at 8 races per card entailing 5 day per week in dec.
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Old 11-19-2018, 12:10 PM   #42
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Resume racing this sunday. 14 makeup days at 8 races per card entailing 5 day per week in dec.
Thanks M....BTW agree, I need to add your 10 to race 7 horizontals. Eill use 1-6-7-10 as there are singles leading up to race 7. Just getting to races 8-10
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Old 11-19-2018, 01:19 PM   #43
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also, i think the 10 horse. who has consistently posted this field's best numbers, is better than his recent form..a wide early move compromised him last time, and i don't think those full routes, even at one-turn, really played to his strength..in addition, the competition in some of his pivotal races was lethal...i like him best in late mode, and the setup rocks...............to summarize, unless late scratches alter the pace scenario, or the surface proves extremely speed, or rail, favoring, my main players are numbers 6 and 10...
I played Still Having Fun in the Cherokee Run and was surprised at how much speed J.Ortiz asked this horse for out of the gate, it completely took away the horse's late kick. With plenty of speed signed on today surely they will go back to a more true stalking trip. Would love to get 9-2!

Welles Crowther is a horse who could round out a tri or super at a big number, his form is dirtied up a bit from some troubled trips and fighting some bias.
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Old 11-19-2018, 01:37 PM   #44
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How fearless is Luis Quioines. Cheap claimer and he darts through a small rail opening in race 3.
I am sure he makes a nice living on the Mountaineer/Mahoning circuit but can certainly fit in the major leagues.
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Old 11-19-2018, 02:00 PM   #45
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This should be a no brainer DQ on the 9 race 4...What is taking them so long?
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