$128 Parx Winner

[pandy]

Yesterday in the 5th race at Parx, Passport, who came into the race as a maiden after 12 starts, won from post 10 and paid $128. This maiden had been beaten several times for as low as $10,000 maiden claiming tag, and had lost seven times in statebred races, was up in class to an open MSW and getting a trainer change from Tim Kelly, who was winning at 4% on the year, to Bobbi Anne Hawthorne, who is at 3% on the year and only had 1 win in 55 starts at Parx. Not only did the horse win, but he won by 7 lengths and was "geared down."

Passport had run the best (74) route figure of his career in his prior start, closing well in his first start over the Parx track. But that was in a $30k maiden claiming race.

Amazing what a trainer change can do. Since Hawthorne is a low percentage trainer, my only guess is that Passport liked the attention or treatment in his new barn. Something had to change that made him want to run.

[castaway01]

I have no idea why this horse suddenly ran well, but I did look at the chart to see if the Parx chart caller used his usual description in these situations, something like "Passport, showing unexpected speed and racing ability..."

He didn't, so I guess he thought it was legit.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by castaway01

I have no idea why this horse suddenly ran well, but I did look at the chart to see if the Parx chart caller used his usual description in these situations, something like "Passport, showing unexpected speed and racing ability..."

He didn't, so I guess he thought it was legit.

That's nice to know the chart caller thinks of himself someone who polices whether or not a horse winning at big odds is legit.

I feel so much more comfortable now that I know Officer Judy is out there and on the job!

[Afleet]

When you watch Preciado take a $20k maiden claimer then will the gallant bob the same year over Limousine Liberal one has a right to be skeptical

[Sea Hero]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

That's nice to know the chart caller thinks of himself someone who polices whether or not a horse winning at big odds is legit.

I feel so much more comfortable now that I know Officer Judy is out there and on the job!

It's nice that somebody is looking out for the public, eh?

[horseplayer]

Sometimes there is a clue if you just look at the stats for 1st time with trainer 33% win roi $1.87 , Mdn claimer to Mdspwt 1 - 100 % roi $11.00 but then its no surprise because as someone said " that is Parx ".

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by pandy

Yesterday in the 5th race at Parx, Passport, who came into the race as a maiden after 12 starts, won from post 10 and paid $128. This maiden had been beaten several times for as low as $10,000 maiden claiming tag, and had lost seven times in statebred races, was up in class to an open MSW and getting a trainer change from Tim Kelly, who was winning at 4% on the year, to Bobbi Anne Hawthorne, who is at 3% on the year and only had 1 win in 55 starts at Parx. Not only did the horse win, but he won by 7 lengths and was "geared down."

Passport had run the best (74) route figure of his career in his prior start, closing well in his first start over the Parx track. But that was in a $30k maiden claiming race.

Amazing what a trainer change can do. Since Hawthorne is a low percentage trainer, my only guess is that Passport liked the attention or treatment in his new barn. Something had to change that made him want to run.

There used to be incredible value on the change of hands angle before the form began flagging it. In fact, I went to mnr management YEARS ago (before drf began featuring this angle) and suggested we start pointing out trainer switches on our program. The response was "nobody cares." Even then it was a trainer's game, but few Mnr fans even realized when a form reversal occurred that a change of hands (not a claim, but instead, a change of trainers) had taken place, much less been the catalyst.

Nowadays, when a horse gets an obvious UPgrade in barns, the angle gets overbet. Consequently, I watch for private sales and transfers that offer subtler potential for improvement. Local knowledge-knowing, for instance, which low-percentage horsemen truly ARE incompetent, as opposed to which simply have lousy stock, or have suffered a run of bad luck- helps a lot.


Good thread. I love this stuff.

[vegasone]

According to data it was a differnt trainer(?) and the horse did come in third in last race. Possibly better drugs.

[Redboard]

Different Jockey as well. Horse had 5 weeks rest. Came in second three times this year. Only the second start at Parx, apparently didn't like Monmouth. Hindsight is…. but I've seen a lot worse.

[horseplayer]

today at Parx in the race same trainer same move MCL up to MDNSPWT number horse Eldora - horse finished 4th at 9.50 odds.

[therover]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Different Jockey as well.

I had Passport to win. Also had the $109 winner (One Way To Fame) at Mahoning yesterday. It went wire to wire (holding my breath during that stretch run). Sloppy track, chaos race, large field...long shots have a higher probability to do well in those scenarios.

Jock switches are a key to my long shot spot play method. Especially when the jock hasn't ever ridden the horse (at least not shown on the PP's).

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by mountainman

There used to be incredible value on the change of hands angle before the form began flagging it. In fact, I went to mnr management YEARS ago (before drf began featuring this angle) and suggested we start pointing out trainer switches on our program. The response was "nobody cares." Even then it was a trainer's game, but few Mnr fans even realized when a form reversal occurred that a change of hands (not a claim, but instead, a change of trainers) had taken place, much less been the catalyst.

Nowadays, when a horse gets an obvious UPgrade in barns, the angle gets overbet. Consequently, I watch for private sales and transfers that offer subtler potential for improvement. Local knowledge-knowing, for instance, which low-percentage horsemen truly ARE incompetent, as opposed to which simply have lousy stock, or have suffered a run of bad luck- helps a lot.


Good thread. I love this stuff.

What you say is 100% true. Trainer handicapping was my specialty, and for a few years I was actually turning a nice profit based mostly off of trainer moves (which I never thought would happen back when I was a college kid starting out gambling). At certain tracks with certain trainers (and not always the obvious ones) it was truly deadly. Unfortunately the supertrainer era and the additional info in the DRF led to everyone looking for these horses and the value has been sucked out of most situations.