AP-WILL HE RETIRE TO HAVE AN EXCUSE?

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The fractions were slow.

Not true. The first half was moderate to slow for Saratoga; but the second half was extremely fast.
Here is a comparison of the first half mile and the second half mile for the last seven Travers Stakes.

2009 First Half: 46.88 Second Half: 49.73
2010 First Half: 47.25 Second Half: 49.40
2011 First Half: 47.63 Second Half: 49.11
2012 First Half: 48.06 Second Half: 49.19
2013 First Half: 48.88 Second Half: 48.59
2014 First Half: 47.31 Second Half: 49.29
2015 First Half: 48.30 Second Half: 46.78

2013 was the only time in the past seven years that the first half was run slower than yesterday's race. But in that race, they ran the second half 1.81 seconds slower than AP did yesterday. Of the other five runnings, AP was between 2.33 seconds and 2.94 seconds faster for the second half mile.

It was a brilliant race by American Pharoah even in defeated. Of course anyone who thinks Secretariat's Kentucky Derby was overrated would not be able to see that.
ETA: Were you even born when Secretarial won the Kentucky Derby.

[alf1380]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Not true. The first half was moderate to slow for Saratoga; but the second half was extremely fast.
Here is a comparison of the first half mile and the second half mile for the last seven Travers Stakes.

2009 First Half: 46.88 Second Half: 49.73
2010 First Half: 47.25 Second Half: 49.40
2011 First Half: 47.63 Second Half: 49.11
2012 First Half: 48.06 Second Half: 49.19
2013 First Half: 48.88 Second Half: 48.59
2014 First Half: 47.31 Second Half: 49.29
2015 First Half: 48.30 Second Half: 46.78

2013 was the only time in the past seven years that the first half was run slower than yesterday's race. But in that race, they ran the second half 1.81 seconds slower than AP did yesterday. Of the other five runnings, AP was between 2.33 seconds and 2.94 seconds faster for the second half mile.

It was a brilliant race by American Pharoah even in defeated. Of course anyone who thinks Secretariat's Kentucky Derby was overrated would not be able to see that.
ETA: Were you even born when Secretarial won the Kentucky Derby.

Great Post.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Not true. The first half was moderate to slow for Saratoga; but the second half was extremely fast.
Here is a comparison of the first half mile and the second half mile for the last seven Travers Stakes.

2009 First Half: 46.88 Second Half: 49.73
2010 First Half: 47.25 Second Half: 49.40
2011 First Half: 47.63 Second Half: 49.11
2012 First Half: 48.06 Second Half: 49.19
2013 First Half: 48.88 Second Half: 48.59
2014 First Half: 47.31 Second Half: 49.29
2015 First Half: 48.30 Second Half: 46.78

2013 was the only time in the past seven years that the first half was run slower than yesterday's race. But in that race, they ran the second half 1.81 seconds slower than AP did yesterday. Of the other five runnings, AP was between 2.33 seconds and 2.94 seconds faster for the second half mile.

It was a brilliant race by American Pharoah even in defeated. Of course anyone who thinks Secretariat's Kentucky Derby was overrated would not be able to see that.
ETA: Were you even born when Secretarial won the Kentucky Derby.

I think the realistic players can see that what happened is Frosted hung in the second half of the race where AP had put him away before, also Keen Ice really finished strong to put AP away. Really they all 3 ran pretty good the final furlongs of the race.

[Track Phantom]

I'd have to go back and watch but I believe American Pharoah had the run of the race in every single win he's notched. The Derby was probably the most adversity that he faced and it was also the closest anyone got to knocking him off.

Yesterday, he was tested, pressed and bugged at CRITICAL points in the race and, similar to Smarty Jones in the Belmont, when the real running began, he had been softened up. I think his late burst and gameness showed to me the class and talent he has. Many (and I mean many) good horses would have been swarmed late after the taxing early efforts.

I think American Pharoah is an exceptional horse but would not crack my top 50, at least at this point. .

For those disappointed with his loss, all the greats lost. Secretariat lost 5 times. His standing shouldn't have changed based on the fact that Keen Ice outfinished him.

Finally, I think if he runs in the Classic, there is a good chance he doesn't hit the board. Reminds me a bit of Fusiachi Pegasus.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by cj

Different game now. You think the Babe would hit 60 HRs today?

No, prolly 90 given the dilution of the pitching talent.

Allan

[Tall One]

nm

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Not true. The first half was moderate to slow for Saratoga; but the second half was extremely fast.
Here is a comparison of the first half mile and the second half mile for the last seven Travers Stakes.

2009 First Half: 46.88 Second Half: 49.73
2010 First Half: 47.25 Second Half: 49.40
2011 First Half: 47.63 Second Half: 49.11
2012 First Half: 48.06 Second Half: 49.19
2013 First Half: 48.88 Second Half: 48.59
2014 First Half: 47.31 Second Half: 49.29
2015 First Half: 48.30 Second Half: 46.78

2013 was the only time in the past seven years that the first half was run slower than yesterday's race. But in that race, they ran the second half 1.81 seconds slower than AP did yesterday. Of the other five runnings, AP was between 2.33 seconds and 2.94 seconds faster for the second half mile.

It was a brilliant race by American Pharoah even in defeated. Of course anyone who thinks Secretariat's Kentucky Derby was overrated would not be able to see that.
ETA: Were you even born when Secretarial won the Kentucky Derby.

1. That just proves you have a lot of slow horses in New York. A 48 half in a 10 furlong dirt race is still slow

2. Secretariat's Derby was brilliant. It was also no better than the 1964 and 1941 Derbies on slower tracks. That makes it overrated.

Indeed, Secretariat himself was both brilliant and overrated. Running in New York often has that effect.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

1. That just proves you have a lot of slow horses in New York. A 48 half in a 10 furlong dirt race is still slow

2. Secretariat's Derby was brilliant. It was also no better than the 1964 and 1941 Derbies on slower tracks. That makes it overrated.

Indeed, Secretariat himself was both brilliant and overrated. Running in New York often has that effect.

So, your arguments have now turned to a "New York" thing?

Saratoga is unlike most other tracks, it has little to do with the quality of horses running there (there are lots of quality horses running there every year). That pace in the Travers Saturday may have been a bit better than it appears, simply because it was run at Saratoga, but likely it was slowish due to AP being in the field, only one entry decided to run with him, so AP was not pressured into a fast pace. That being said, because AP was able to run well within himself early, one should have enough intelligence and common sense to surmise that he probably should have had more left late, and also should have been able to put Frosted behind him earlier than at the top of the stretch. He didn't in either case, which supports the belief of several here that he didn't have his A game that day, for whatever reason.

As to Secretariat being "overrated", you are welcome to your opinion, but you are among sparse company, for sure. So, keep believing what you want and the rest of us will keep believing what we want. You will never convince us otherwise.

But, the New York thing, IMO, is out of line, and I'm surely not a New York kind of guy, in any way, shape, or form. Saratoga is Saratoga, and should be judged in that context, not compared to other tracks or meets.

Why you continually post things, as fact, that are so far off of what the vast majority think, is beyond me. Yes, you are entitled to your opinions, but when most of the better and more experienced players here have diametrically opposing views from you, maybe we're not the ones that are wrong, maybe you are. An honest appraisal of one's actual knowledge on a subject, from time to time, is important to one's development, and success.

[cj]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Not true. The first half was moderate to slow for Saratoga; but the second half was extremely fast.
Here is a comparison of the first half mile and the second half mile for the last seven Travers Stakes.

2009 First Half: 46.88 Second Half: 49.73
2010 First Half: 47.25 Second Half: 49.40
2011 First Half: 47.63 Second Half: 49.11
2012 First Half: 48.06 Second Half: 49.19
2013 First Half: 48.88 Second Half: 48.59
2014 First Half: 47.31 Second Half: 49.29
2015 First Half: 48.30 Second Half: 46.78

2013 was the only time in the past seven years that the first half was run slower than yesterday's race. But in that race, they ran the second half 1.81 seconds slower than AP did yesterday. Of the other five runnings, AP was between 2.33 seconds and 2.94 seconds faster for the second half mile.

It was a brilliant race by American Pharoah even in defeated. Of course anyone who thinks Secretariat's Kentucky Derby was overrated would not be able to see that.
ETA: Were you even born when Secretarial won the Kentucky Derby.

I would also say Saratoga is a different track today than it was as recently as 2011. It clearly is much more tiring now than it used to be and less speed friendly. The track superintendent has changed and so have a lot of the speed biases that used to occur on the NYRA circuit.

[Tom]

Here is a comparison of the first half mile and the second half mile for the last seven Travers Stakes.

Now, mark down next to each of those first half mile times where the leader finished the race.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

Now, mark down next to each of those first half mile times where the leader finished the race.

Good point. Same thing happens in the Derby most of the time. The fastest fractions show the horse setting them way back at the finish.

[Ruffian1]

Originally Posted by cj

I would also say Saratoga is a different track today than it was as recently as 2011. It clearly is much more tiring now than it used to be and less speed friendly. The track superintendent has changed and so have a lot of the speed biases that used to occur on the NYRA circuit.

Great call CJ. The track super is a HUGE determination as to track bias and their daily and weekly schedules and tendencies. I learned this at Bowie in the 70's.

Customers should really focus on this.

If you get a handle on what the super is thinking and when and why they grade when they do, it becomes very obvious. The float, roll, heavy water stuff is also important but very predictable. Not grading and winterizing. Learn your super, and look at the track under the inner rail as well as the chute daily and you don't need to be there every morning at 10:30 or evening an hour after the last. Of course, if you can be, you become that much smarter still.

I was not going to elude to this because I know the former very well and would never want my words misconstrued or misunderstood.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by raybo

That being said, because AP was able to run well within himself early, one should have enough intelligence and common sense to surmise that he probably should have had more left late, and also should have been able to put Frosted behind him earlier than at the top of the stretch. He didn't in either case, which supports the belief of several here that he didn't have his A game that day, for whatever reason.

Why should he have been able to put Frosted away earlier? Had he done so in the past? Answer: No.

Frosted was closing in the Derby and took a measured shot at AP in the stretch in the Belmont when the former walked on the lead.

You seriously underestimate Frosted's quality. Didn't he run one of the faster final preps leading up to the Kentucky Derby? Getting away from Frosted is not the same as dispensing with sprinter Competitive Edge or Maryland-bred Bridget's Big Luvy.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Why should he have been able to put Frosted away earlier? Had he done so in the past? Answer: No.

Frosted was closing in the Derby and took a measured shot at AP in the stretch in the Belmont when the former walked on the lead.

You seriously underestimate Frosted's quality. Didn't he run one of the faster final preps leading up to the Kentucky Derby? Getting away from Frosted is not the same as dispensing with sprinter Competitive Edge or Maryland-bred Bridget's Big Luvy.

I think it is also pretty clear Frosted was fully cranked for the Travers, not so much for the Jim Dandy. Of course that should be expected but I've barely seen it mentioned.

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by cj

I think it is also pretty clear Frosted was fully cranked for the Travers, not so much for the Jim Dandy. Of course that should be expected but I've barely seen it mentioned.

Do you think Rosario would have used the same exact riding tactics as Lezcano?