 |
|
04-24-2007, 01:34 PM
|
#1
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,184
|
When you’re a winner, go to dinner
Wonder if Karl knows this guy? 
J.S. “Ponti” Campagna – One of Lone Star Park’s most popular and influential regular customers since 1996, Campagna has earned tremendous respect and garnered a reputation as one of the shrewdest and most-disciplined handicappers from his fellow horseplayers. The instant “Ponti” hits his profit goal for the day, he returns to his home in Flower Mound, Texas to prepare for the next day’s races – even if his “best bets” of the day have yet to run.
[snip]
http://www.lonestarpark.com/NewsEven...me04062007.htm
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 10:05 AM
|
#2
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: south florida
Posts: 2,547
|
Takeout
Simple answer. His "goal method" is his guarantee that he has a home to return to.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 10:59 AM
|
#3
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,184
|
I hear that. There sure have been many days I wished I hadn’t given it all back.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 11:10 AM
|
#4
|
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
|
If he is as good as people say, he has most likely left a lot of money on the table. I used to be one to scale back when ahead to assure a winning day. The problem with that is wins tend to come in bunches. Strike while hot. Go home early when you are struggling.
What happens when, heaven forbid, he has a losing day. I know this is probably not possible in Karland, but what about the other guy?
Last edited by cj; 04-25-2007 at 01:35 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 11:31 AM
|
#5
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 6,128
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by cj
What happens when, heaven forbid, he has a losing day.
|
He stays late?
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 11:34 AM
|
#6
|
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by GameTheory
He stays late?
|
We can only guess, as we never hear about those.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 11:42 AM
|
#7
|
|
Easy Goer
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Tampa,Florida
Posts: 3,440
|
I know this has been discussed many times, but it is one of the worst approaches to investing there is IMO.
Many have talked about the reasons for this, myself included…but…. If you become so psychologically wrecked by each individual losing day then the approach may have merit for you. How a long term player draws daily or in this case race by race conclusions would drive me insane, but to each his own.
As I’ve said before, and I feel the analogy rings true. In my family’s restaurants we had goals for turning tables and avg. ticket size. To think we would shut the doors 2 hours prior to closing because a preconceived “goal” was met is nonsense.
The time any good player I’ve known cuts off their daily action is when they become out of touch with what’s currently winning. If you have a profile in mind and it suits your strengths…then the track suddenly changes drastically and you lack confidence adjusting, step back and evaluate.
As CJ said…money in this game often comes in bunches and to impose limits on your “bunches” will only adversely effect your net long term.
__________________
Dan G
=======================
“We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” ~ George Bernard Shaw
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 11:57 AM
|
#8
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: south florida
Posts: 2,547
|
The answer is simple again. He has been doing this since 1996, thats 11 years. I am going to "assume" there is no Company or Government check deposited in his checking account to cover his daily expenses, therefore give the man his credit due. He met his "goal", paid his bills and awaits tomorrow.
Last edited by karlskorner; 04-25-2007 at 12:03 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 12:09 PM
|
#9
|
|
Easy Goer
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Tampa,Florida
Posts: 3,440
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by karlskorner
The answer is simple again. He has been doing this since 1996, thats 11 years. I am going to "assume" there is no Company or Government check deposited in his checking account to cover his daily expenses, therefore give the man his credit due. He met his "goal", paid his bills and awaits tomorrow.
|
Karl my friend, I for one would never deny a winning player credit, but this portion of his approach is open for discussion.
If I type when a topic is discussed I can only give my perspective. It’s certainly not for everyone and in this mans case he has found what works for him. As you say he certainly deserves all the credit for that.
BTW Karl…Do you ever frequent the roof top section of the clubhouse at Calder? If so is a character named “Marvin” still there chasing the “stupers” away? He always wore the same style, almost medical shirt (dark brown) Just curious, I haven’t been to Calder in a while.
__________________
Dan G
=======================
“We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” ~ George Bernard Shaw
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 01:29 PM
|
#10
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 2,184
|
This is an issue that I’ve waffled on many times and still wrestle with.
Right now I’m leaning more towards the Karl camp but have definitely seen the door swing both ways. Both sides of the discussion have very good points. Personally a hit seems to loosen me up a little too much and I tend to get aggressive and sometimes give it all back very quickly if I think I know what’s going on. As it turns out, I seldom do.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 03:17 PM
|
#11
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DanG
In my family’s restaurants we had goals for turning tables and avg. ticket size. To think we would shut the doors 2 hours prior to closing because a preconceived “goal” was met is nonsense.
|
Dan,
Your analogy illustrates the point beautifully. This guy's method seems to assume that the probability of winning declines after a win/wins. Absolutely not true. Perhaps he finds that he bets less carefully when ahead, and if that's the case, there may be merit in what he's doing. Otherwise, the laws of probabilities do not support this method.
He could very well be successful for a number of other reasons, but if so, it would be in spite and not because of this methodolgy.
If a winning horseplayer says he has a "lucky hat", I'd look for other aspects of his handicapping before trying to copy his headwear.
Bob
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 03:31 PM
|
#12
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 2,636
|
If you are going to quit when you meet your goal what is the pt. of going to the track the next day? You met your goal, you quit. What is the pt. of going back there?
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 04:33 PM
|
#13
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 580
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by JPinMaryland
If you are going to quit when you meet your goal what is the pt. of going to the track the next day? You met your goal, you quit. What is the pt. of going back there?
|
So you have the chance to quit again. 
Maybe he should go to rehab, since rehab is for quitters.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 05:32 PM
|
#14
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 532
|
Each race is an indepentant event. The results of one race has absolutely nothing to do with the next.
|
|
|
|
|
04-25-2007, 05:40 PM
|
#15
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: PA
Posts: 593
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by DanG
I know this has been discussed many times, but it is one of the worst approaches to investing there is IMO.
The time any good player I’ve known cuts off their daily action is when they become out of touch with what’s currently winning. If you have a profile in mind and it suits your strengths…then the track suddenly changes drastically and you lack confidence adjusting, step back and evaluate.
As CJ said…money in this game often comes in bunches and to impose limits on your “bunches” will only adversely effect your net long term.
|
Excellent advice from 2 very sharp guys 
speedking
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
