Del Mar Contest

[how cliche]

Everyday I can I hope to head up a DMR Contest thread. Everybody sign up and start picking winners here...

http://www.delmarracing.com/mydelmar/reg.php

[how cliche]

Wednesday's past performances...
http://www.dmtc.com/frame.php?c=raci...ris/050720.pdf

[Milleruszk]

What makes this contest the most like "real" handicapping is that you can make multiple wagers up to 1 minute before post. You are not forced to make wagers the day or morning before the first race goes off. You can watch the board and look for value.

[tonto1944]

You should just play who you picked instead of looking for value. When I was younger I learned a lesson the hard way and it took some time to finally get into my brain. There were times I would go to the track or OTB and like a horse he or she was either 5/1 or higher then I would look and he was 9/5 and so I would go with my second or third choice and boom my first choic wins. And besides when I play exactas I always pick 1 or 2 long shots for 2nd . So I changed my mind and play my second choice at4/1 he looses and my 1st pick wins with a 10/1 second and I am out a $35 exacta ,because I am looking for $100 exacya or more. Then one day Uncle Vito says to me while we are at the track who I like I tell him and play something else and again I am out a $30 exacta. He says nice score I tell him what happened he laughs and says well I won. He said if you like something play don't let anyone or thing change your mind unless you know the horse is lame.
What I am saying it is better to win $25 or $30 dollars then lose $6-$10.

[kingfin66]

Originally Posted by tonto1944

You should just play who you picked instead of looking for value.

This tells me a lot about you as a horseplayer. Unfortunately, it is not good. I can tell from your posts that you enjoy horse racing a great deal. I hope that you don't lose too much money playing the horses and that you bet within your means. Why would I say such a thing? It's all about value. People will say there aren't rules in handicapping and horse racing. Well, there is one rule that winning players all agree on and that is that you must only bet when there is value.

[how cliche]

Sorry men. I'm not willing to let this thread degenerate into either a seminar on money management or something personal about how good or bad anyone is at anything.

Lets concentrate on the race, the 2nd leg of the always overnominated Oceanside Stakes. My pick is El Roblar. When R. Mandella won 4 Breeders' Cup races in one day in 2003, you'd better believe I added all four runners' clippings to my page on him. El Roblar matches up well. By War Chant, a BC Mile winner, this trip should be right up his alley in his turf, route & stakes debut. Alex Solis is up and has ridden more stakes winners than anyone for this barn. July 5th's drill of 1:24&1 served notice. They're training him like he's a good one. Every six or seven days since June 10. If he doesn't win it isn't for a lack of trying.

El Roblar to win.

[tonto1944]

I like 3 horses

1-This Wizard Rocks he's been over the track and ran very well.
2-In Excelsis stays close and can come at the end.Also I like when a trainer works horses a little long instead of 3 and 4 and 5 furlongs.
3-El Robar another who will be close and come at the end.The 2 months off don't bother me

[depalma13]

I like County here if he takes to the turf.

El Roblar has a very bad post position, justr read no horse in 5 years has won from the 10 hole in a mile turf.

I'll go with Juliessugardaddy and Mighty Empire to fill out the exotics.

[tonto1944]

Originally Posted by kingfin66

This tells me a lot about you as a horseplayer. Unfortunately, it is not good. I can tell from your posts that you enjoy horse racing a great deal. I hope that you don't lose too much money playing the horses and that you bet within your means. Why would I say such a thing? It's all about value. People will say there aren't rules in handicapping and horse racing. Well, there is one rule that winning players all agree on and that is that you must only bet when there is value.

I have done very well thank you ,I stay maily with NY tracks and will make a bet on other ,but 90% at NY. And if you look at my post you would know I do well.

[Turfday]

Here are the stats on post position 10 at a mile turf at Del Mar. This is for the last TEN race meets there:

The horse breaking from the 10 post at a mile on turf at Del Mar has won five out of 84 races at that field size in the last 10 race meets at Del Mar (since July, 1995). The expected win is 10% for each post or 8.4 wins per post. So post 10 has won about three less races than norm.

The expected in-the-money finishes in those 84 races with 10-horse fields at a mile on turf at DMR is 30% or 25.2 times for each post. Horses breaking from the 10 post have finished on the board 20% of the time, 10% below the norm, or 17 times.

Even though the public somewhat compensates for this, as horses breaking from that post go off at an average of 22/1 or six points higher than norm (the norm is 16/1, remember this includes ALL starters), the 10 post is still a tough post to win out of, or even hit the board.

[how cliche]

Big ups to me for selecting the 5-2 favorite. 2 scratches leaves him breaking from the 8 post. Have fun everyone. I can't help it. I made my choice before the line ever came up. Is it really that obvious?

[kingfin66]

Originally Posted by tonto1944

I have done very well thank you ,I stay maily with NY tracks and will make a bet on other ,but 90% at NY. And if you look at my post you would know I do well.

I'm glad to hear that. I really do want you to win. I'm not sure what you mean by looking at your posts to know that you do well. I see that you have posted a lot of selections, but there aren't any stats associated with them. I'll take your word for it though as it isn't a big deal to me either way.

Cliche: I'll try to post a pick for the contest later. I appreciate you posting the pick and definitely wasn't trying to degenerate the thread although I am definitely a degenerate.

[chrisg]

Khyber Pass will be my top play in the contest, but I'll have a little on Juliesugardaddy.

[cnollfan]

I like Mighty Empire at 8-1 ML. Rank in a four-horse race last time, rallied from last place to win despite absence of killer speed duel previously. Great workout pattern. Post position 1 did poorly last year at Del Mar, but new grass, new meet, I'm willing to overlook that unless and until the pattern reasserts itself. Theoretically the rail should be good on a 7 furlong course with tight turns.

[Niko]

I'm going with Standing Brave if the odds hold up