When you’re a winner, go to dinner

[GR1@HTR]

Originally Posted by karlskorner

You got the story just a little backwards. GR1@HTRW 5 years ago questioned why I was home early from GP, I replied that I had met my goal for the day, that started it all.

Awhile later someone requested a meet at CRC and I explained that I had lost a portion of my hearing on Okinawa during WWII (the last war we won), lived with it for 55 years and during July of 2000 some more hearing left. Even with VA hearing aids it is difficult to carry on a conversation with all the background noise usual at the track, so I am really not that interested in questions from those seeking answers ( all of the people who knew the answers have died off).

PS: I wonder what ever happened to GR1@HTRW, his friend SMF and hundreds of others of the "wonders" that have disappeared from the board ?

PPS: Don't forget the CHINESE DOULBE, that was another blockbuster.

Hello KKorn and long lost friends...I'm still ticking...Just a lurker...You all behave now and be nice...

[Tom]

Hey Glen, glad to hear you're still kicking!

[thelyingthief]

recently, i purchased "Trading Rules That Work", a book delving into the me-side of the trading equation.

the author, a long time trader himself, and confidant of nearly every major name in the commodities and futures markets, states that traders who are the most successful have a trading PLAN, what to do in every conceivable situation one might encounter. such plans are individual and specific to one's own psychology, and what may work for one man will not necessarily work for another. i have found this to be true in my own wagering, in sports, horses, and the markets; i have found it necessary to recognize my own specificities, and create rules to which i adhere without question. any one of you would regard many of these guidelines with a degree of scepticism, if not amusement, and you would be right. however, as with this other man's leave-nothing-on-the-table rule, each of my rules responds immediately to traits i possess, and traits that i must web a strategy around, lest they jeopardize my bankroll. bmeadow says that every trading day is just another trading day; the man in question responds to this facile observation by taking his money home while he has it; tomorrow is another day, and he realizes his profits as he can, when he can.

as a bias player, i am very sensitive to my selections, their relationships to the current bias, and the celerity with which these biases may change. if i find the results of a day's handicapping gainsaid by the actual winners (i hit 70% of my plays, and 90% either place or win, so i am usually quite correct in my assessments), none of whom exhibit the energy and velocity profiles i use to determine my selections, i would be an idiot to persist in the front of this evidence. my rules demand i handicap the first several races, although i may not wager on them, just to alert me to the possibilities of bias change. if i think it's there, i quit, and wait to see: i don't lose a cent in such cautions, although i don't win any either. this game, all speculative games, generally, is about a few winners, and a LOT of losers, and the first caveat to entertain, if one wishes to enroll in the former's small fraternity, or lest one enter the ranks of the latter's fine democracy, is preservation of capital.

i am not going to allow my greed, or my fear, to confuse me--AND IT CAN. rules are there to prevent my emotions from running away with me. and i can pretty much tell you who is winning on this thread and who isn't by the responses to this man's rules. losers haven't any rules, nor do they perceive a need for them.

never, i repeat, never underestimate your opponents' desire to lose. one such opponent being one's self.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nice post thief....lots of nice posts in this thread....

[DanG]

Originally Posted by DanG

For example; I have FAR more time for myself when I’m playing full time than I did in the resperaunt business. It’s not even close in that regard.

This is the by-product of a New Jersey public education!

[DeanT]

I enjoyed reading this thread as well. Great stuff.

Imo, it all comes down to the age old "maximizing utility". If the psychological benefit (and associated time benefits) of being up for the day outweighs the day to day profit grinding of getting the bankroll up long term, you prescribe to one side of the debate. If you are like bmeadow et al, then you don't. As with most things, different strokes for different folks.

I used to try and be up for the day, and treat each day as a session. Sometimes in the last race of a day when I was down just a wee bit I would bet to place, or bet something safe just to show a profit. It made me feel better. Now I don't care a bit; as I find I treat the betting bankroll as something I do nothing more than to use as a score keeping tool. Maybe there will come a day when I go back based on my personal circumstance, who knows.

[keilan]

Couple different things are going on this thread at the same time. We have Karl who only plays his home track and Jeff who plays every track each day.

Is it reasonable to think that each of these players would have the same starting and stopping points? I don’t know Karl’s method of play but I suspect he doesn’t play each and every race.

Let’s say he plays on average 5 of every 10 races. Let’s further assume that he only plays races where he has decided that he has an edge. Now after 3 races he is short of his goal amount by $20 dollars, does he quit when he still has two bullets remaining? Does he opt out of eating at the track and eats at home thus saving $20 dollars or does he stay and play the last 2 races risking the day’s profit.

I think what the naysayers are saying, is that proven players/winners don’t walk away from races when they feel that they have an edge unless it’s for psychological reasons.

Jeff on the other hand has positioned himself so that he can virtually play from morning to night. For him to have a start and ending point makes good sense otherwise he wouldn’t have a life outside of racing. That my friends is far different than playing on average 5 races per day at one’s home track.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by keilan

Couple different things are going on this thread at the same time. We have Karl who only plays his home track and Jeff who plays every track each day.

Is it reasonable to think that each of these players would have the same starting and stopping points? I don’t know Karl’s method of play but I suspect he doesn’t play each and every race.

Let’s say he plays on average 5 of every 10 races. Let’s further assume that he only plays races where he has decided that he has an edge. Now after 3 races he is short of his goal amount by $20 dollars, does he quit when he still has two bullets remaining? Does he opt out of eating at the track and eats at home thus saving $20 dollars or does he stay and play the last 2 races risking the day’s profit.

I think what the naysayers are saying, is that proven players/winners don’t walk away from races when they feel that they have an edge unless it’s for psychological reasons.

Jeff on the other hand has positioned himself so that he can virtually play from morning to night. For him to have a start and ending point makes good sense otherwise he wouldn’t have a life outside of racing. That my friends is far different than playing on average 5 races per day at one’s home track.

The last time this topic came up, Karl said he was passing very few races.

[karlskorner]

I have spoke about this more than once over the past 7 years, but we will try once again. It's a HORSE RACE, nothing more, nothing less. The next race you are looking at has NEVER been run before, be it at my home track or Jeff's (or others) multiple tracks.

With that said, I play every race (except where there are 2 or more FTS, and then I have made exceptions). Have I left the track $20.00 short of my daily goal, more than once. For the simple reason no decision is made on my part until I have viewed the horse I like in the paddock and his/hers "warm up". Would I have added to my bankroll IF I had stayed longer, there is no way on Gods earth that I can answer this. BUT, if and when I reach my daily goal, I got what I came for and like "Ponci" I go home and look forward to tomorrow's races.

[keilan]

I have no bone to pick with you, you play the way you play and that’s good enough. Quite honestly I generally could care less what anyone does.

All I have written is that your and Jeff’s situation are world’s apart imo. And trying to put a square peg into a round hole because it fits one’s agenda is a reach.

I have no doubt that you are successful at the track, all I and others have said is that your prescribed method of play leaves money on the table for those that are winning players.

[karlskorner]

I keep reading about "leaving money on the table", who's money ? Is there a "gurantee" I left money on the table. was it ever mine ? If I ignored the last 4 races because I reached my goal for the day, like Jeff says in his post on his forum, doesn't bother him or me a bit. Jeff playing multiple tracks or I only one is one and the same thing. We reached our goal. I am interested in which Trainers are watching which horses come into paddock, that they may or maynot be interested in claiming, If they are one of the four I have chosen to consider for that particluar race, I am intrested also, it's just a process of elimination. Sometimes I am wrong, sometimes I am right.

[keilan]

Okay -- Karl I’ll try and say this so that there’s no misunderstanding on anyone’s part reading this.

Winning players have an edge and expressed in percentages it may range from 1% to 20% plus rebates. This is no different than Las Vegas who has their edge built into their games. There are two reasons Vegas doesn’t sleep 1) so their guests are not inconvenienced and 2) they want to churn their edge over as many times as they possibly can during each 24 period.

This works the same for winning horseplayers, let’s say there were three Jeff’s and racing was based on a twelve hour day. Each Jeff took a shift of 4 hours per day playing while maintaining a balance to their lives. Under this scenario Jeff always has an opportunity to hit all the largest paying races of the day and net an income greater than 3 times the one he is generating today.

On the flip-side - Someone wagers 150 days per year and wins 60% - 70% or 90% of the time betting $40 per race and stops playing after they have reached their goal ($400 + -)

Winning days --150 * 60% * $400 = $36,000
Losing days -- 150 * 40% * $400 = - $24,000
Net - less cost of doing business = $12,000


Winning days --150 * 70% * $400 = $42,000
Losing days -- 150 * 30% * $400 = - $18,000
Net - less cost of doing business = $24,000


Winning days --150 * 90% * $400 = $54,000
Losing days -- 150 * 10% * $400 = - $6,000
Net - less cost of doing business = $48,000

Now I don’t know anyone who wins 90% of their wagers nor do I think someone could support a family on $48,000 before expenses and income tax.

If someone is a proven winning player than I suggest that anytime he/she restricts themselves to a certain number of plays at the only track they play then they are leaving money on the table. Real Estate works the same way – I would rather sell a house at 105% its market value and buy back in at 85-90 cents on the dollar in an escalating market than wait until I have an offer of 110% of MV on the original home. It’s called “churning”.

I understand that all your losing days don’t mean that you left $400 in tickets on the floor. Remember this is just an example.

[Tom]

Not to be a wise-ass, but if a winning player doesn't handciap every track, every day, is he leaving money on the table too?
Or is that only when you handicap a race and then don't play it?

I just see what both sides are saying, but I think you have to somehow define your scope of play. K-Man might say his plan is 5 tracks today, but what about the other 20? Karl might say his plan is until he hits +$200.
I have a hard time seeing the difference. What is the short run? In Keilan's example, Jeff chose a 12 hour shift to maintain balance in his life...but isn't that what Karl is doing, too? Both players knowingly do not capitalize on every opportunity out there, for whatever reason.

I have this same problem with chicks in a bar....ya can't take 'em all home!
You have to leave some on the dance floor.

[keilan]

Originally Posted by Tom

Not to be a wise-ass, but if a winning player doesn't handciap every track, every day, is he leaving money on the table too?
Or is that only when you handicap a race and then don't play it?

I just see what both sides are saying, but I think you have to somehow define your scope of play. K-Man might say his plan is 5 tracks today, but what about the other 20? Karl might say his plan is until he hits +$200.
I have a hard time seeing the difference. What is the short run?

Tom all I have said is that any winning player playing at only their home track and walks out after they have reached a predetermined amount is leaving money on the table. That’s it.

I understand clearly both what Karl and Jeff do and don’t confuse the two as being the same because I sincerely believe they are quite different. One is rational the other is not imo.

And yes you are a “wise-ass”

[keilan]

Tom -- I didn't say Jeff chose a 12 hour shift, I wrote three Jeff's are playing a 12 shift.

Tom as far as the chicks go you might consider getting a bigger bed