Who buys The Sheets or Thoro-Graph?

[Macdiarmadillo]

For Sheets pointing to big scores, I've found plenty of potential ones that Sheets have pointed me to but very few outright winners as is typical of longshots in the 30-1 and up range. That works out just fine if you have them backed up or keyed in tris or supers. Then again over the years I've hit as many or more winners in this longshot range using other methods (angles, physicality, dumb racing luck, standing on a chair and dropping a pen on the Form, etc).

I just think it's very much tougher to get like a 30-1 winner with the average field size going down and down as time goes by. And that's no matter what you use, except maybe darts.

BTW kev, do you remember if the big ones came off sheets patterns?

[kev]

When you say big ones, I guess your talking about the scores I just talked about me hitting? If so yes. The one that I though payed $125, I was wrong now that I'm at home I looked it up it payed $112.40-37.00-21.80, horse was called SUPREME EVENING, two races back she had just broke threw an old top by about 2 1/2pts and bounce off that and had 6 weeks from that new top, so it was a good pattern. This year I started to keep every race I buy and put them in a folder for my learning pleasure.

[cj]

OK, to the pace issue.

If a frontrunning horse is in against a faster horse, he will chase and not make the lead. Once he doesn't, he will quit and back up, and the jock usually packs it in, certainly not persevering to the wire. So yes, eight lengths is very possible.

Azeri last year is a good case. She ran 4 two turn races leading into the Breeder's Cup Classic.

Her best speed figure was earned in her very first race, the Apple Blossom, a 116. She did it because she loafed on the lead with a 103 pace number.

Her next two turn race was the Go For Wand at Saratoga. She earned a 109 speed figure, earned with very similar pace figure of 107.

Next came her worse figure of the year in the Personal Ensign, a 96. Why? Well, my guess is the 113 pace figure while dueling might have had something to do with it. Her next race was the Spinster in what was basically a public workout, so her 98 - 100 figures while 3 and 4 wide don't really mean much.

I don't know what the ratings were for The Sheets, I'd be curious. Do they post archives? I already know that TG changes variants to make the races "square" with previous numbers, so looking there won't do much good.

[kev]

You bring some horse up I don't have sheets for, let's try this. I was just wacthing the replays on TVG for ARL. Prime ex. was race one, you had this horse loose on the lead 49 and 1:14, and then you had a horse coming from downtown to blow right by him, next race speed duel horse held on, race seven two horses all the way around battled dead heat both. My point is if a horse is going to run he/she will run it, unless you have some crazy early fast times. Why is it then you see horse throwing down and run 1-2 all the way around and the closers is no where to be found, cause I think they ( the closers) were not ready that day. Also the sheets give number's called quit numbers...."There are numbers that we give out of horses that we call quit numbers---numbers of what they did in an earlier part of the race than the finish line. And I would say that one of the reasons that horses get quit numbers is that they ran unrealistically fast early. But it doesn't happen all that often."

[kev]

Hey CJ I have the sheets for Sar. race 8 and race 9 today, if there somthing in there.

[cj]

4 Spanish Mission

I get his last three races as very similar, with final time being affected greatly by pace, especially the last and the one three back. For me, he ran an 89 after making the lead at the pace call of an 84. He ran slightly slower two back, and 84, after making a big move into a soft pace that didn't do him any favors. Three back is the big one, the horse set the pace setting a very fast 98 pace, was passed at the top of the lane, and backed up to a 70 speed figure. I rate all three races basically the same overall, there were no bounces or regressions.

5 Bucharest

Last two races, I rate exactly the same. The horse last out earned a 91 speed figure, but he did it running a slowish 82 pace. Two back, he earned an 84 speed figure, but did it pressing a 95 pace while wide and beaten 9 lengths.

How do The Sheets look for these two horses?

The 2, 3 and 4 in the 9th race show similar patterns as well if you are interested.

[kev]

Ok SPANISH M. ( first off a little v is wide 3-3.9, and big V is wide 4 or more, also there's small t's and big T's for trouble, which they don't add into the figs, but I think they play a part) last race got a 11- v two back 12+ V and three back 14" t, also he bored out in that race, might be the reason why he went to the sidelines. Beyer has it 89-82-69, or in sheets numbers 14-17-22.

BUC. last race 10+ rail trip, next race 13 they didnt have no mark for being wide. beyer 14-18


Now on F.ALLEY in the derby they gave him a ( ran too fast early ) last race is about 2 1/2pts faster than the ARK.Derby fig.
ANDROMEDA's HERO which I loved in the bel. is about 1pt faster in his last than 3 back. ( my little girl picks out the little faces after I get done typing ) so I'm not lying,lol.

[cj]

I have Flower Alley running the same race in the Derby as he did in the Dwyer.

In the Dwyer, he ran 100 pace, 104 speed, while in the Derby, he ran 123 pace 92 speed.

I have Andromeda's Hero running the same race three times in a row, with the speed figure being affected by pace in each one.

[GR1@HTR]

Tbrown...
Actually, if I understand correctly, the great Dr. Larry (who passed away last year) was the idea behind Fig/PRATT. I think he had a custom job that KM created for him and then was later released with the normal edition of HTR. Dr. Larry was an excellent capper and long time sheets user. A good man who is much missed...

[kev]

See if A.Hero had that line ( same number's in a row, which Thorograph does alot ) I wouldn't have bet him in the Bel. that day. For the sheets A.Hero the derby race is about 4 1/2pts slower than his last race. FA is about 9 1/2pts slower. How do you put all of this into picking winners?? For form reading we have pattern's or lines that have held up over years. Big ex. is at ELP race 3 today. horse called SHAMETHEMOON when he ran that may18th race ran 2nd at 5-1, before than he had been beaten by 10L 28L, but there was a pattern on the sheets that pointed to him running his best that day, it's when a 3yo just breaks threw his/her old 2yo best(top) look for them to run big in either the next or race after that, in his case SH had ran a 32+(at 2) and first race of the year ran a 30, next race where he ran 2nd he ran a new top, here's where it get's good, so after that he bounces beaten by 6 1/2L's off that new top and was given about 9 weeks from the top race and came back to win at 12-1 in his last. This is type of pattern's I have folder's full of.

[DrugSalvastore]

Originally Posted by midnight

andicap: the "sheets" (specifically Ragozin) have been responsible for a lot of the money bet in New York (and to a lesser degree at other major tracks) for over 25 years. At one point in the late 80's and early 90's, it was guesstimated that about 40% of all the money bet at NYRA was from the "Rags" users.

WOW does that number seem inflated!!

I don't think the sheets have as much control of the odds board as people think.

Let me give you an example.

July 29th at Saratoga (3rd day of the meet) race #7.

The 1-to-5 favorite is #8 Quick One. He ran an 8.5 in his debut last time out. The #7 is a 9-to-1 shot named Royal Fudge. RF ran an 8.5 as his two year old top (meaning best race at age 2.) He "paired-up" his 8.5 top (he ran back-to-back 8.5's) and than bounced off the "paired top" in his most recent race.

So basically you have two horses who are identically as fast as each other, one is a 2nd time starter, and the other has a popular pattern in his last race and is 36 times a bigger price!!!

This race is a total no-brainer on Thoro-Graph sheets---and if the sheet money did control a strong fraction of the pools...there is no way Royal Fudge would have been 9-to-1.

Royal Fudge won that race---there are a lot of times when obvious sheet plays like her don't take a lot of money and don't win. My point is that I don't think the sheet money in the pools is near as strong as people say it is.

I rarely buy sheets myself---but I make it a point to befriend sheet users who let me look at what they buy. I happened to catch Royal Fudge over Quick One that day...I couldn't play QO at 1-to-5...and I asked a friend who looked better on the sheets between Miss Lakefield and Royal Fudge. He told me Royal Fudge looked better than both ML and QO--so it gave me a reason to bet the race. They aren't worth paying $25 a day for, but in occasional spots the sheets are worth having.

[nobeyerspls]

Two guys at my local simulcast facility walked around with graphs on rolled up sheets of paper. I'm guessing it was thorograph. I found myself walking behind them on the way out one day and noticed they drove a car that Rent-A Wreck might turn down. Whatever those graphs were they didn't seem to be working for those guys.
Later only one of them showed up and he semed to be using the Form.

[kev]

People will always find ways of talking sh*t about the sheets. Your funny.

[AQUEBUCKS]

Thougt I'd jump in here as I use the Rags from time to time. I'm a small fish in a big pond when it comes to my contemporaries here in NY. I can name 6 to 8 guys off the top of my head that bet $1k+ (base) exactas on the NY races (they all use the Ragz)

Aquebucks

[PaceAdvantage]

I can believe that the sheet guys bet all that money....40% probably seems like it might be close to reality, given that the majority of any pari-mutuel pool at any track is comprised of a MINORITY of bettors. ie. 10% of the the betting population makes up 80% of the pool (or something like that)....big bettors rule. And big bettors (especially years ago) bought the sheets....