Bris Numbers Basically The Same As Software Numbers - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Nickle · 02-20-2005, 11:11 AM

Very little difference with bris power numbers and any software you might use that gives a power rating/number

HTR (K Ratings) very similar to Bris top 3

I will stick with Bris , better bang for your buck

Tom · 02-20-2005, 12:08 PM

Got any actual data to suggest PP is anything close to K?

JimG · 02-20-2005, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nickle

Very little difference with bris power numbers and any software you might use that gives a power rating/number

HTR (K Ratings) very similar to Bris top 3

I will stick with Bris , better bang for your buck

Nickle,

Interesting theory so I thought I would check it out with some software I have laying around and today's Aqueduct card. Let's check out JCapper (J Rating), Work Horse Pro and Equisim (Profiler) along with Prime Power to see if they are real similar.

Race1:
Prime Power 2-4-3
JRating 6-4-2
Equisim 7-2-6
WHPro 2-7-3

Race 2:
PrimePower 6-5-2
JRating 5-6-2
Equisim 5-6-2
WHPro 2-5-6 a number of 1st time starters in this race.

Race 3:
PrimePower 4-3-1
JRating 4-3-1
Equisim 4-3-2
WHPro 3-4-1 a 4 horse field here

Race 4:
PrimePower 4-3-1
JRating 4-7-1
Equisim 4-5-6
WHPro 4-1-7

Race 5:
PrimePower 2-7-1
JRating 2-8-4
Equisim 2-1-7
WHPro 2-1-4

Race 6:
PrimePower 1A-2-1
JRating 1-2-3
Equisim 1-2-4
WHPro 1-4-1A

Race 7:
PrimePower 5-7-2
JRating 5-1-8
Equisim 7-5-8
WHPro 7-8-3

Race 8:
PrimrPower 2-7-5
JRating 6-5-2
Equisim 2-7-1
WHPro 1-5-2

Race 9:
PrimePower 5-10-9
JRating 10-5-9
Equisim 10-5-1
WHPro 5-10-9

Equisim, JCapper, and WorkHorse Pro are all full featured software that has many ratings and ways to attack the races. This is just one rating from each one for comparison to Prime Power purposes. Looks to me like some races are very similar and some not. Just what I would expect.

Nickle · 02-20-2005, 01:01 PM

real similar guy

all using basically same data to get power ratings

I just stick to Bris since all really the same

Tom · 02-20-2005, 01:30 PM

But you stll have no data. Ok.

acorn54 · 02-20-2005, 05:33 PM

let me add to the issue
i got these stats from globalwinningpicks

the top 3 prime power numbers win 68% and produce a 10% loss
based on 13181 races. don't know the stats on the k rating, perhaps someone with a large htr database can chime in.
acorn

GR1@HTR · 02-20-2005, 07:02 PM

acorn...no way that can be correct...
Almost impossible to get only -10% roi on top 3 picks, betting on all races.
That would mean
top choice 33% -3% ROI
2nd Choice 20% -3% ROI
3rd Choice 15% -4% ROI

Now global winning picks might be able to do that in spot play situations but highly unlikely.

Maxspa · 02-20-2005, 07:16 PM

Jim,
Workhorse Pro that's a blast from the past! I've got it somewhere in my collection and the book that went with it.
Maxspa

Doug · 02-20-2005, 08:13 PM

.How about this $15 per month report

race 1 $15 per month
Prime Power 2-4-3 2-1-3 out
JRating 6-4-2
Equisim 7-2-6
WHPro 2-7-3

Race 2:
PrimePower 6-5-2 6-5-8 #5 $30.20 #5 was top pace, speed and class
JRating 5-6-2
Equisim 5-6-2
WHPro 2-5-6
Race 3:
PrimePower 4-3-1 5-4-3 #4 $3.40
JRating 4-3-1
Equisim 4-3-2
WHPro 3-4-1

Race 4:
PrimePower 4-3-1 4-5-3 #4 $2.80
JRating 4-7-1
Equisim 4-5-6
WHPro 4-1-7

Race 5:
PrimePower 2-7-1 2-7-9 #2 $3.80
JRating 2-8-4
Equisim 2-1-7
WHPro 2-1-4

Race 6:
PrimePower 1A-2-1 1a-1-2 #2 $7.70
JRating 1-2-3
Equisim 1-2-4
WHPro 1-4-1A

Race 7:
PrimePower 5-7-2 7-5-1 #6 $14.00
JRating 5-1-8
Equisim 7-5-8
WHPro 7-8-3

Race 8:
PrimrPower 2-7-5 2-7-1 #2 $4.00
JRating 6-5-2
Equisim 2-7-1
WHPro 1-5-2

Race 9:
PrimePower 5-10-9 5-10-7 #7 $10.20
JRating 10-5-9
Equisim 10-5-1
WHPro 5-10-9

Jeff P · 02-20-2005, 08:40 PM

There can be huge difference in what you'll get out of software generated unique numbers vs just eyeballing Bris past performances or using Bris Prime Power all by itself. The value of unique software generated numbers comes about in races where the software picks something different than what the public does.

One of the things I recently did was compile Starter Database files for 2004 covering what I perceive to be the major circuits running. This makes it possible for JCapper users to test out strengths and weaknesses of various ratings for themselves. I made every attempt to include every race date during calendar year 2004 for the following tracks:

New York: AQU BEL SAR
Florida: CRC GP
Kentucky: CD KEE
Southern California: SA HOL DMR

Here's what I have for the tracks listed above (every race in the Starter Database - all distances, surfaces, and classes) based on a flat $2.00 win bet with no further handicapping whatsoever and no attempt to break ties:

Code:

ALL Odds Ranges

     By: JRating Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   1    -377.30  16558.00    0.9772   2025   8279     .2446  
                   2   -2754.10  16564.00    0.8337   1422   8282     .1717  
                   3   -3700.10  16526.00    0.7761   1197   8263     .1449  



     By: Prime Power Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   1   -2703.40  16912.00    0.8401   2518   8456     .2978  
                   2   -2271.10  17008.00    0.8665   1698   8504     .1997  
                   3   -2490.70  17122.00    0.8545   1270   8561     .1483

Code:

6-1 and up

     By: JRating Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   1     705.60   4690.00    1.1504    218   2345     .0930  
                   2    -872.70   6774.00    0.8712    248   3387     .0732  
                   3   -2486.60   8260.00    0.6990    232   4130     .0562  


     By: Prime Power Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   1    -150.70   1288.00    0.8830     58    644     .0901  
                   2    -647.00   4100.00    0.8422    171   2050     .0834  
                   3   -1007.80   7568.00    0.8668    304   3784     .0803

Code:

9-1 and up

     By: JRating Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   1     806.00   2918.00    1.2762    114   1459     .0781  
                   2    -827.50   4560.00    0.8185    117   2280     .0513  
                   3   -1895.80   5852.00    0.6760    122   2926     .0417  


     By: Prime Power Rank

                Rank       Gain       Bet       Roi   Wins  Plays      Pct
                   1     -72.40    554.00    0.8693     18    277     .0650  
                   2    -280.40   1894.00    0.8520     58    947     .0612  
                   3    -441.40   4238.00    0.8958    135   2119     .0637

.

Tom · 02-20-2005, 08:56 PM

Jeff,
Impressive performance by J1.

speedking · 02-20-2005, 09:31 PM

Jeff,

Dynamite ROI on 6/1 and above. Especially for top out of the box and a sizable sample. Congratulations!

speedking

JimG · 02-20-2005, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maxspa

Jim,
Workhorse Pro that's a blast from the past! I've got it somewhere in my collection and the book that went with it.
Maxspa

Maxspa,

I sent you an email regarding the above. Thanks for looking.

Jim

Nickle · 02-21-2005, 11:21 AM

If your just looking at Data the software programs are excellent but if your looking to get picks from all these different programs just use Bris as it is all the same basically.

speedking · 02-21-2005, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nickle

If your just looking at Data the software programs are excellent but if your looking to get picks from all these different programs just use Bris as it is all the same basically.

Nickle,

Reread Post #10 by Jeff. This is a one year study of top rated "picks" compared head to head. This is the best "out of the box" performance I've ever seen documented over a significant period of time and his ratings buried the BRIS Prime Numbers. If you don't see the difference or realize the value here, I welcome your money in the mutuel pools.

speedking