Least well understood type of race

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by podonne

Average final odds is easier for my dataset but I could get others. Which do you think is a better measure of "difficult"?

I can think of a few:

• Average final odds of the winner
• The percent of races won by the favorite
• The impact value of being the favorite

I guess that, when I asked the question,I was thinking more of "the impact value of being the favorite", but "average final odds of the winner" might also be useful information.

[podonne]

Perhaps not suprisingly, earlyfieldsize > 9 was the biggest predictor of a high odds horse. Average odds of 6.3 vs 5.2 overall.


I think the impact value of being a winner might be a better way to go, since it controls for field size? Doing it seperately for every field size would be the only other way to control for it...

[Overlay]

For me, using the impact value would adequately take field size into consideration.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by podonne

I'm guessing that 6F dirt races are a pretty well explored\understood. Mid priced claiming races at major tracks. Curious if there are type of races that are particuarily difficult to figure out and\or haven't been explored by all the handicapping books out there.

I've heard turf sprints are tough. I would assume that maiden races are pretty difficult since there are so few past performances to go on.

Any that come to mind?
Podonne

I agree with the 6F dirt races being well understood (I find it hard to believe than even the perfect handicapper/bettor can make a serious living from those).

On the other hand, anything at 10F or further (any surface) seems to perplex a lot of bettors. Which is ironic imo, sectional times are widely available in the US and they are the single best tool for such races.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Overlay

I intended to focus with my question more on class, running surface, and distance, while assuming races with equal field sizes. It would intuitively seem that, given any group of races that have the same combination of surface, class, track configuration, and distance conditions, the percentage of winning favorites would progressively increase as field size got smaller.

I know what you meant, Overlay...my reply was in jest.

From what I have seen, the betting public's collective wisdom knows no conditional bounds.

The crowd appears equally proficient in all the different types of races and distances.

Jusy one more perplexing and unexplainable fact of this game...

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I know what you meant, Overlay...my reply was in jest.

From what I have seen, the betting public's collective wisdom knows no conditional bounds.

The crowd appears equally proficient in all the different types of races and distances.

Jusy one more perplexing and unexplainable fact of this game...

You'll have to make your tongue-in-cheek a little more obvious (at least for me).

[letswastemoney]

Turf Sprints!!!! I hate them!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gm10]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Turf Sprints!!!! I hate them!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

These are often deceptively simple imo! Most horses won't have the required gate speed and agility, while others don't have the luck of the draw.

[Uncle Salty]

I have a tough time with the conditioned claiming races, like N2L and N1Y...

[podonne]

OK, I rewrote the script so it measures the "impact value of being the favorite" for all different types of races. Gonna take a while.

Just as a sanity check, can anyone confirm the IV of being a final odds favorite in all races as 2.848611?

I wish I could use a decision tree to figure out what the most important factors in a race are to make it "tough", but using IVs won't work for that, and if I just use winner\not winner I run into the same field size issue.

[cj]

I'll add another thing...rather than type of race, how about type of horse? It seems to me the crowd is often confused when speed figures for the participants are of little use:

• New Surface
• Stretch Outs
• Trainer Changes
• Lightly Raced Horses
• Layoff Returnees
• 1st Time Starters
• Foreign Shippers
• etc...

Feel free to add to the above. Many try to find a way to use the figures available, if any, but I prefer to use other methods for those types of horses.

[horses4courses]

Type of race, and type of horse, are definitely obstacles to overcome in finding winners. Another one that has always fascinated me, though, is the least understood of track conditions. It might be mud on the main track for some, but rain softened turf courses have always interested me the most.

For many years, focusing on soft turf conditions (mainly in routes) has been a profitable exercise for me.
As the years have passed, though, my knowledge of pedigrees best suited to winning in such conditions has deteriorated some.
Not to the point where I avoid such situations, but it's not as strong as it was.

Horses with proven performance on soft turf are, obviously, at an advantage.
Their odds of winning are, usually, reduced because of this.
Those that have never experienced it are in a "proceed with caution" mode, but that lessens somewhat if their pedigree says they should cope with it.

Favorites in races over a soft turf track that have never been there before are great "bet againsts" if you can find suitable candidates to beat them.

Anyway, that's my two cents worth.
Don't wish to dilute your thread but, for me, a lack of understanding by the betting public can extend beyond their lack of understanding race conditions, and/or horses' adaptability to new situations.

Good luck!

[JackS]

Not an original idea and a little more esoteric, doe's anyone here attempt adjustments for the trouble line?
I may experiment with this a little in the upcoming days.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by JackS

Not an original idea and a little more esoteric, doe's anyone here attempt adjustments for the trouble line?
I may experiment with this a little in the upcoming days.

Watching race replays is always time well spent for handicappers.
Finding troubled trips, though, is often in the eye of the beholder.
The obvious ones are, largely, big underlays next out.
Observing subtle hindrances is difficult, and no easy road to profits.

When a horse finds trouble in a race, facing a stronger field in it's next race
will pose even bigger problems, imo.

[menifee]

Any nonwinner of 2L lower level claiming race.