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Old 02-28-2021, 03:10 AM   #16
cj
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Weather?
Don't think so in those cases, just track was crazy slow and seems like something was done to make it more reasonable.
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Old 02-28-2021, 12:57 PM   #17
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all part a the game

Yesterday was an excellent chance for Racing to show me that there is indeed some karmic force (other than hard work, consistency, entertainment)...

In the 8th race, we had a couple horses who were useable a week ago (Against the Bias!) vs. similar fields, and had solid wide bias compromised performances, and were back yesterday at Long Shot $$ Prices in a relatively wide-open field.


Chalky Trifecta.


Tale of Mist did manage to get 4th to round out a decent ($40-50? dime Su).


I think that's what you hope (over time? ) sort of 'evens out' with the biases.

You're looking for value that the bias may produce/hide for your benefit in future play.

If you're sharp enough to follow the track bias notes and commentary/prattle, and to pick up on it in the first several races, then that's probably even better. You 'project' some paces and trips, and adapt to include a few mediocre horses that will be big prices with a chance at bias-aided trips.

Bias can enhance your experience. There's limits to how much you want to deal with, but it's part of the game in weather, maintenance, post position, track configuration, PACE, etc...
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Old 02-28-2021, 03:51 PM   #18
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Like any other handicapping factor, track bias can best help the bottom line when setting you on a contrarian path.

In fact, assuming that a bias-hungry public will spot and be ALL OVER obvious trends, on the show, I focus more on subtler trends, or on potentially strong biases revealed early by subtle signs. Anybody can watch two 25-1 shots win gate to wire and (correctly) proclaim a bias. But it takes expertise to look back in the pack (or lower on the board) and spot a buried or overlooked performance that signals an edge (or disadvantage) for some path or running style.

By the time a bias shows up on the tote board, the real value sometimes comes from betting against it on the possibity that an apparent pattern might just be random. Or that the track has changed, which happens frequently at cold-weather meets.

This all hinges, of course, on superior handicapping and race-watching skills.

I do think that the odds board has a short memory concerning bias-aided (or hindered) performances, and that next-out value can be had. That doesn't mean bias-hindered horses have to win, just that they tend to be underbet.

I also find bias notes, which I inject via formulator, helpful in clarifying form-cycles and in identifying which past efforts I should ignore, and which to focus on.
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Old 02-28-2021, 03:58 PM   #19
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David and I talked about the figure making part on this episode of the Pacecast:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmqoE5fPSaA
I don't envy figure makers these days.

Everyone knows my often repeated views on the problems making figures.

1. There are technical complexities related to run ups, rail settings, and timer problems.

2. There are problems related to wind, track maintenance during the day changing the track speed, variations between sprints/routes from day to day.

3. The are problems related to the pace, race dynamics/flow, and how the track was playing impacting the times.

4. And to put a cherry on top there are subjective differences in how to interpret the results that lead to wide differences between figure makers for many horses that then feed into future analysis.

These issues have always existed. That's why I've tended to use figures but also remain "old school" and be more qualitative than most people are these days. But the problems seem to be getting worse instead of better.

My typical speech on the subject aside, there are a lot of podcasts out there, but the ones I always make time for are those by CJ and David. It's really the best place to get some insights into where the issues are the most significant currently so you can stay on top of the game - unless you want to spend a LOT of time and energy timing races yourself and making the figures. CJ and his partner are doing as much as they can to correct for all these issues and David and CJ always do a terrific job on the analysis of races both pre and post race.
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Old 03-07-2021, 09:49 AM   #20
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Race 5 today

HAMMERIN AAMER 7/2 is back from that Valentines Day Massacre.

(Benefited from an inside bias-aided trip vs. toiling rivals that day.) The tradeoff here today in tossing him, is that he figures to get a good setup.


Pretty cool race. ITS ALL RELEVANT is 6/5 ml for Rudy Rodriguez. Form looks pretty, but he's had distance issues in slow paces and faces some potential pace in here.

This is a race I want to catch "Talking Horses" and hear what Andy and Anthony Stabile have to say.

.
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Old 03-07-2021, 03:18 PM   #21
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also a cool race in today's 3rd.

Looks like the public is basically 'dutching' the

The is also a cool horse and coming off a short break after his debut.


The has a couple wide drawn posts at Gulfstream against the track configuration. Two back, he actually made GREATEST HONOUR work to beat him.
Last time drawn wide again, ran poorly.

You have to respect Chad Brown, and the is obviously a nice animal.

Leaning on the Dynamic One. I think there's a fair chance that his races can be upgraded, and that he's a decent colt.
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Old 01-13-2022, 02:54 PM   #22
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What a challenge it's been following this meet.
If you make Pace & Speed figs I don't have to tell you how wild it's been.

Some days the fractions, on a FAST track, resemble a 12f race over a yielding turf course.
I've had days where the variant is SLOW 20 or more.

The last week or so of January featured a very bad rail, with winners rallying 4-5 wide around the turn and through the lane.
Lately the rail has been pure gold...credit Trevor McCarthy for winning the last two races yesterday (2/21) at 7-2 and 8-1 odds by getting inside and staying there. Obviously he had to have some horse under him, but he rode them both very nicely.

What I do love is that it pays to pay attention (which is true at any track, and life in general ) but especially at Aqu this meet.
A good review of charts and replays should yield numerous runners to bet on and bet against when they run again....which is what this game is all about IMO.
I love NY racing!
huge rail bias at AQU today
we'll see if it stays that way all through the day.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:28 PM   #23
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There is a bias....no there is no bias

Place is total bullcrap in the winter....Look at the winners thet last couple of days and tell me how they make any sense. If you do you are redboarding like someone else I know....I thing the bais is an old Yonkers follow the leader routine.

Race 3 today
2-5 shot off the board and tri is only 200 and change. Super short as well.

Last edited by Boomer; 01-14-2022 at 02:42 PM.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:40 PM   #24
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Place is total bullcrap in the winter....Look at the winners thet last couple of days and tell me how they make any sense. If you do you are redboarding like someone else I know....I thing the bais is an old Yonkers follow the leader routine.


2-5 shot off the board and tri is only 200 and change. Super short as well.
Track is insanely slow today, partly due to wind I would guess but even on a calm day they would be plow horse times. It makes it tough for me, but I do like when the horses run back on a more normal track. Good and bad form is often disguised.

The bad thing for the track itself that i see is that the bigger winter races are going to lose relevance. Look at the Wood last year as example 101. I know I wouldn't ship in a good horse to run on that track.
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Old 01-14-2022, 02:53 PM   #25
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Now in race 4 Count how many times Jose Lozcano checked the 3-5 horse out of the race......Sorry, but the ought to close for the winter
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:03 PM   #26
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Now in race 4 Count how many times Jose Lozcano checked the 3-5 horse out of the race......Sorry, but the ought to close for the winter
I'm not sure a jetpack would have helped that horse, she was terrible.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:27 PM   #27
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big favorites have not hit the board yet, first 5 races


yesterday rail bias lasted a few races, but towards end of day seemed gone...
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Old 01-15-2022, 01:14 PM   #28
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Nothing I said here was nasty. You accused riders of cheating. You then insulted me. I don't think I'm the nasty one here.

You are correct....I have nothing but admiration for jocks and my remarks were not appropriate. If an admin can take them off it would be appreciated.


Apologies to you as well Andy. No excuses but I have Covid at the moment and I suggest to anyone not to engage with any dialogue in the midst of brain fog.
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Old 01-15-2022, 01:42 PM   #29
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You are correct....I have nothing but admiration for jocks and my remarks were not appropriate. If an admin can take them off it would be appreciated.


Apologies to you as well Andy. No excuses but I have Covid at the moment and I suggest to anyone not to engage with any dialogue in the midst of brain fog.
Sorry to hear. Hope you feel better soon.

Never any hard feelings.
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Old 01-15-2022, 01:51 PM   #30
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Sorry to hear. Hope you feel better soon.

Never any hard feelings.

On the mend except for the brain fog


"Never any hard feelings"....Spoken like a true New Yorker and mensch.


Thanks
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