Arrogate has to regress... right

[Mc990]

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more talk of this. Understandably not everyone buys into "sheet theory" and "bounces" but if you do, this race has bounce written all over it.

The figures he earned in his last 2 are monstrous... All time great. Horses just don't maintain that level without eventually tailing off. Especially since the Travers race was such a jump up.

Now he could certainly bounce and win but he doesn't have any any appreciable advantage over a handful of others at that point. I'll personally be looking to beat him and I'll also be looking to best Chrome if he draws wide.

Every time I re-watch the Classic, I can't help but think the race may have "gutted" both of them....

[cj]

How long does it take for a bounce to be out of the question? The last race was nearly three months ago. That is where I have trouble with the bounce theory personally. I've played sports all my life and if I overdo it one day, sure, I might feel it the next one and ever for a few days later. But it doesn't last forever.

There are many reasons horses regress off of big efforts. "Bouncing" just seems like a catch all to me. I do think there are certain times horses are not physically ready off a best effort, but not racing for three months rules that out for me.

[SuperPickle]

I'm less concerned about a bounce and more concerned that is 8 works enough.

Considering Baffert did nothing with the horse till around Thanksgiving I doubt bounce is in the cards. But being 90% could be.

[Tom]

I would say 6-8 weeks and the bounce threat is gone.
The horse has had plenty of time to recover.
In the old days, when horses ran more than they do today, it was something more than it is now.

[SuperPickle]

Originally Posted by Tom

I would say 6-8 weeks and the bounce threat is gone.
The horse has had plenty of time to recover.
In the old days, when horses ran more than they do today, it was something more than it is now.

Exactly. The horse has raced one since August. The bounce is based on the idea a horse regresses from a huge effort when wheeled back in a short to moderate time frame.

To sum it up there's nothing to bounce from.

[JustRalph]

He sure looks great on tv this morning

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by SuperPickle

I'm less concerned about a bounce and more concerned that is 8 works enough.

Considering Baffert did nothing with the horse till around Thanksgiving I doubt bounce is in the cards. But being 90% could be.

I agree. If Arrogate doesn't run well it will most likely be due to missed works, bad weather in So. CA, Plan B, shipping late, etc. all the while Chrome has been chillin' in South Beach not having missed a beat. Everything has to fall perfectly to beat Chrome. Not sure everything is falling into place perfectly for Arrogate.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by cj

How long does it take for a bounce to be out of the question? The last race was nearly three months ago. That is where I have trouble with the bounce theory personally. I've played sports all my life and if I overdo it one day, sure, I might feel it the next one and ever for a few days later. But it doesn't last forever.

There are many reasons horses regress off of big efforts. "Bouncing" just seems like a catch all to me. I do think there are certain times horses are not physically ready off a best effort, but not racing for three months rules that out for me.

Yes, I agree that generally more time tends to mitigate the likelihood of a bounce. I view his last 2 races as "knockout numbers" though. On some figures, I imagine they were the fastest back to back races ever.

We could be looking at the fastest horse of all time who will defy probability but at around even money, it makes sense to me to play for the regression

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Yes, I agree that generally more time tends to mitigate the likelihood of a bounce. I view his last 2 races as "knockout numbers" though. On some figures, I imagine they were the fastest back to back races ever.

We could be looking at the fastest horse of all time who will defy probability but at around even money, it makes sense to me to play for the regression

CC will be around even money too. Don't tear your hair out trying to handicap these two, just flip a coin.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Redboard

CC will be around even money too. Don't tear your hair out trying to handicap these two, just flip a coin.

That is the thing with this race. Tough to come up with anything clever.

[UnionRags]

Shared Belief or Arrogate?

[classhandicapper]

My feeling is that even if you totally reject the "physical" bounce theory, how many horses in history have put up 3 consecutive 120s when they got really sharp? That doesn't mean he can't run a 117/118 and still win. It's just a little too soon for me to think 120s are going to be the norm for this or any other horse.

[burnsy]

I don't think he has to regress to lose. He may lose because this is CC's most likely best lick, 9 furlongs on a speed strip. if that track comes up fast, this is Chromes best chance.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

My feeling is that even if you totally reject the "physical" bounce theory, how many horses in history have put up 3 consecutive 120s when they got really sharp? That doesn't mean he can't run a 117/118 and still win. It's just a little too soon for me to think 120s are going to be the norm for this or any other horse.

Agree. If he does it again, it's absolutely the best 3 race stretch of all time. As horseplayers, I feel we need to be skeptical though... I want to see it first and I need more than even money to see it. Even if he does pair his last two, I'm not sure he's the most likely winner... We should know a lot more by this evening.

I may be in the minority but I think this race absolutely presents some potential value. Setting aside the Arrogate debate for a minute, I believe 3-4 horses will be severely hindered by a wide draw.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Agree. If he does it again, it's absolutely the best 3 race stretch of all time .

Any chance you're forgetting a 5 week span in the spring of 1973?