Longshots for Friday Jan 20

[Ray2000]

Betting W/P/S

Cal Expo R2......#4 Chief Saratoga-8/1..............Arsenault, Andrew
Cal Expo R7......#5 Paydaze A Rockin-6/1..........Wiseman, Steve
Cal Expo R10.....#8 Allmyx'Sliventexas-6/1........Svendsen, Lemoyne

Freehold R2......#2 Sophisticatedkelly-9/1..........Vandervort, Chase
Freehold R8......#5 Simple Saver N-4/1.............Smith, Steve

Fraser R6........#4 Go To The Windows-10/1.......Johnston, Dennis

Western Fair R5..#5 Apintofdelicious-9/1...........Mcclure, Bob
Western Fair R10.#9 Ginger-7/1......................Steward, Nicholas

Miami Valley R13.#6 Checkout Terror-6/1..........Widger, Sam

The BigM R1......#10 Windsun Fireball-20/1........Merton, Thomas
The BigM R3......#6 Seafood Missy-15/1............Carlson, Eric
...........I went with #6 Sportsmuffler in contest, going against the Robot again.
The BigM R9......#9 Sweet Justice-5/1..............Callahan, Corey
The BigM R11.....#5 Fanticipation-12/1.............Monti, Drew

Woodbine R1......#8 Acefourtyfour Alex-12/1.....Waples, Randall W
Woodbine R2......#8 Burnin Money-5/1.............Mcnair, Douglas R
Woodbine R6......#5 Severus Hanover-12/1.......Jamieson, Jody C
Woodbine R10.....#8 Dazzling Rockette-5/1.......Hensley, Ed F
Woodbine R11.....#7 Drivingthedragon N-8/1.....Roy, Louis Philippe

Yonkers R1.......#4 That'S Some Plan-7/1.........Zeron, Scott
Yonkers R9.......#1 Mighty Peruvian N-9/2........Stratton, Jordan

GLA

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

I have to give you my official HELL NO on Windsun Fireball and Seafood Missy. (nothing personal, just havin' fun)

I can see Sportsmuffler, but as of now I'm leaning to favorite, Candy Styx N instead. If you must go long, possible upsets are Heretic Franco N (15-1) and Whiskersonkittens(7-1).

Sweet Justice and Fanticipation are both eligible to win -- as opposed to Windsun Fireball and Seafood Missy.

[Ray2000]

Windsun Fireball is a silly computer pick that I just 'put up with' now and then.

The algorithm the Robot uses puts a lot of weight on ability to be close at the half.

It does this by comparing the call at the half vs starting post,
adjusts by ±¼ length for an exceptionally good or poor driver that raceday,
and averages ground gained / lost over as many 'usable' pplines available.

In race 1 today this calculated out to be

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
-0.93	0.28	-2.85	0.63	-0.08	0.35	-1.00	-0.05	-0.50	2.53
Stalker	Stalker	Closer	Stalker	Stalker	Stalker	Closer	Stalker	Stalker	Leaver

That 2.53 number defines him as the only Leaver in the race and a single leaver gets a big bonus.

Of course what frequently happens is the drivers can read and see that also, so they all shoot out of there.


A couple of sub 1:55 miles (1 at Saratoga) for Seafood Missy threw the bot off kilter in the 3rd.
Has her top rated speed average.

Good Luck Jess et al

[Ray2000]

Windsun Fireball did get the lead but couldn't last with these, nice show price.

			
Track	Race	Finish	Return (W/P/S)
CALX	2		
CALX	7	Win	$13.40
CALX	10	Place	$13.20
FHLD	2	Show	$3.40
FHLD	8		
FRD	6	Cancelled	
LON	5	Show	$4.10
LON	10	Place	$10.00
MVR	13	Place	$10.20
M	1	Show	$13.00
M	3		
M	9		
M	11		
WDB	1	Place	$21.20
WDB	2	Win	$13.90
WDB	6		
WDB	10		
WDB	11	Place	$8.70
YR	1		
YR	9		

Bet	$114.00	Return	$111.10

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Actually Windsun Fireball came from off the pace and benefitted from half the field breaking. But here's something funny, because he was so long, I used him for second. I needed one more breaker.

My longshot, Whiskersonkittens won at 9-1, but alas, Candy Styx N missed second -- as did my exacta.