Best Strategy?

[EasyRider]

I am new to the forum and have read several handicapping books and I have found them to lack any guidance on strategy. Lacking any such guidance my strategy is to try and pick the winner of a race and then bet that horse to win.

Many folks have suggested other possible strategies that include largely encompassing trifectas and the pick 3 but is there a generally accepted strategy that most think is the best? I am sure this is hotly contested but is there a general rating of strategies that is widely accepted by those in the know?

EasyRider

[cj]

Bet horses with odds higher than the expected win percentage. It really is the only way to win.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Originally Posted by EasyRider

I am new to the forum and have read several handicapping books and I have found them to lack any guidance on strategy. Lacking any such guidance my strategy is to try and pick the winner of a race and then bet that horse to win.

Many folks have suggested other possible strategies that include largely encompassing trifectas and the pick 3 but is there a generally accepted strategy that most think is the best? I am sure this is hotly contested but is there a general rating of strategies that is widely accepted by those in the know?

EasyRider

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There are 2 strategies I belive 100% of members of this forum agree on- bet the overlays, but not too often!

[Sailwolf]

Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos

______________
There are 2 strategies I belive 100% of members of this forum agree on- bet the overlays, but not too often!

What do you mean, not too often?

[EasyRider]

So overlay means bet on horses that are going off on odds that are less then what they are worth? This makes sense and, of course, is the only way to bet but my question is,

Is there any advantage in strategy alone? I know with casino games that some bets are better then others. Does this also apply with horse racing in some fashion?

It seems like you folks are saying that it really dosn't.

EasyRider

[Overlay]

In one respect, the only way in which some types of racing wagers are "better" than others is a lower rate of takeout. However, the types of wagers with higher takeouts (such as exotics) are also the ones where the bettor generally stands to receive a greater return if successful.

Tying in with your reference to overlays, my own preference for differentiating between better bets and poorer bets (of whatever type) is noting the degree to which the horse or combination is going off at actual odds which are higher (overlays/better) or lower (underlays/poorer) than I judge its true probability of occurring to be. As cj said, the ability to accurately gauge true odds and confine bets to overlays is key. This is what differentiates horse racing from casino games such as craps or roulette, where, even if some bets are "better" than others, none of them offer an edge to the bettor, and anyone who plays long enough will end up losing money. By contrast, if you can reliably judge the true probability of success for a horse or combination (either intuitively or quantitatively); place your wagers when betting value is present; and size your wagers according to the degree of betting value, you'll be playing with a long-term edge over the game, despite the high rate of takeout as compared with the casino.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Means you have to maintain control of yout money management, handicapping, and betting. It is easy to slip into making bad bets and losing your edge.
Whether you use rebates or not, you have to know that the payoff in the long run on a specific bet is profitable, and only make bets that qualify as profitable, no matter how tempting a bet is that does not meet your +ROI criteria.

[kitts]

cj says it best.

Also, read Winning Thoroughbred Strategies by Dick Mitchell

[WJ47]

Originally Posted by kitts

cj says it best.

Also, read Winning Thoroughbred Strategies by Dick Mitchell

The most helpful books for me was Winning Thoroughbred Strategies and all the books by Andy Beyer! I also liked Betting Thoroughbreds. Sometimes I think that when you read too many books, you get information overload! I just got Handicapping for Better or Worse and so far, it looks pretty decent!

[offtrack]

Bet when you see value.

Study for the vacation meets at Saratoga and Del Mar.

Learn to stop loosing.

Enjoy life and generate good karma.

[EasyRider]

So I read some reviews about Winning Thoroughbred Strategies by Dick Mitchell and it seems like a money management book. I will read it, however, does it adress specific strategies directly? In other words does it give preference to pick 3 vs trifecta ect?


I guess the answer that seems to be comming from this forum is "only make good bets"; Meaning: "There is no best strategy". I suppose that trifectas and exactas usually have a larger take by that house so that would make them less desirable bets but other than that it would seem that all are equal.

EasyRider

[hurrikane]

the exotics will also introduce you to a relative you didn't know about. Uncle Sam.

[melman]

I think a very good investment would be the book by Steve Fierro "Four Quarters of Horse Investing".