Who are you watching among Midatlantic trainers ?

Originally Posted by cash2

interesting...mr.speedfigures himself, jerry brown said on his own board on thorograph.com that there was nowhere where the trainer factor was more dominant than the midatlantic states. and the the track where this applied most of all was delaware park. i'm inclined to agree.

I'm just getting back into the game after taking a break in October 05 and I'm in the process of putting my Trainer Watch List together for the summer. Since I play the Midatlantic tracks exclusively (MTH PHA DEL CNL PIM -- in that order), I'm interested in what others look for with trainers on this 'circuit', where horses easily ship from track to track everyday. I say let's throw in PEN and CT for completeness. I am inclined to omit NYRA, because it's one of a handful of elite circuits, but several NYRA-based trainers run quite a few in NJ and DEL. I'll post some of my ideas in the next few days.

Who are the Midatlantic trainers you follow?

Most importantly, WHY ???

[Doc]

Alan Goldberg - based at Colts Neck Training Center in NJ, wins at a high percentage with horses coming off long layoffs. Ignore the workout times that are listed for his horses for Colts Neck, they don't mean anything and are probably not accurate. Has been using Eddie Castro as his go-to rider.

John Dunn - based at Philadelphia, small outfit, high percentage trainer, ships to win everywhere.

Steve Mick - based at Philadelphia, very high % trainer, can pop with a price horse or chalk, ships to win. Very good first off the claim.

Good luck!

Doc

Originally Posted by Doc

Steve Mick - based at Philadelphia, very high % trainer, can pop with a price horse or chalk, ships to win. Very good first off the claim.

Thanks for the heads up about Mick, Doc.

I like him A LOT first off the claim in sprints, but not as much in routes. But I've got him at 12 (6 2) second after the claim in sprints AWP $5.97 $2ROI $2.98. As for popping with a price horse, he shipped into MTH a couple of years ago and I caught him with GRATITUDE ATTACK at better than 10/1. Horse was coming out of a DEL Stakes he had no chance in (vs. PRIVATE LAP and MAX FOREVER, if the grey cells are right). I think he came back 3 weeks later with the same critter and won again! Also better than good with layoff sprinters and his winners repeat about 1/3 of the time.

Bookoo solid guy who goes right onto my Watch List.

BTW, does anyone have the skinny on another PA guy, Todd Beattie? On Saturday at MTH, my buddy pointed out a 40% win rate for this guy in 2006. Any details? I know he runs a bunch at PHA, but he's primarily a PEN trainer, n'est pas?

Also, wasn't MAX FOREVER a 1/2 or full bro to a real superstar? I'm thinking GHOSTZAPPER or SPEIGHTSTOWN. I guess I could look it up, but....

I've been following this guy forever. Back in 1994, the year of the BULL, Small kept a small string at MTH for the summer; among them was CONCERN. During the meeting, my buddy and I caught several $20+ winners from Small that followed a pattern: a maiden showing one or two mediocre-to-poor efforts in sprints, then stretched out onto the grass. The winners were all sired by DANCING COUNT (some might have also had BROAD BRUSH in their pedigree) and ridden by Tracey Brown. Don't remember her? Few do. Real good looker, too. We were almost giddy, because here was Dickie Small winning races, we were onto him, and the crowd was not. BTW, I never saw the man bet a nickel and he's easy to follow -- not many 6'3" guys around with a straw hat and a bow tie.

One afternoon, Small had a maiden filly named BEADED MOCASSINS entered in a grass race at MTH with the same pattern. I couldn't even sleep the night before. I see my buddy coming into the paddock and he's shaking his head and hands me a chart from the Form. Turns out, unknown to us, Small ran the filly the day before at PIM or LRL. She won and paid about $30. This was before the Internet, before online results charts, before online entries, and before anyone ever dreamed of watch lists.

I've been trying to catch Small with the same pattern ever since, with little success. Make that no success. Either the race came off the grass or the critter lost, sometimes both.

Today, there are no more DANCING COUNTs (he died -- I think Small owned him with his family) and Dickie's MO is quite a bit different. He doesn't ship around as much. But he's still the Maestro. And he's adjusted. So must we.

He wins at a solid 20+% clip overall, even better with MSW maidens, but not so hot with maiden claimers. He never claims any, but he's dynamite with his layoff routers. 1st/2nd/3rd off layoff shows 27/25/35% respectively. That's solid, folks.

His winners repeat about 36% of the time, he wins 22% on stretchouts and a remarkable 45% second-time-long. He hasn't been winning when he puts them on the grass anymore -- probably due the stock he's running and the loss of DANCING COUNT -- but clicks at better than a 26% rate going turf to dirt. Overall, he's significantly better with 2-turn horses, but his ROI is not positive in many areas. Be careful and pick your spots.

Joz Santana is his go-to rider, but Luis Garcia was more profitable. Problem is I don't see Garcia on many lately for Small. Also, don't be afraid when you see Victor Molina aboard for the trainer.

Small is not winning at his usual rate right now, but his critters are hitting the board. So the not winning will end -- it's inevitabe.

[cash2]

good thread. agree with all three of doc's picks. learned the hard way about mick . backed off after playing him first off the claim and watched them romp. i pay attention to the claiming trainers,ritchey lake pino vaders wolfendale etc. most important to me is who they claim from. not an original approach but it can still pay dividends. a few years ago when brent sumja was at del, tim ritchey took four off him and three came right back to win while the fourth ran second. might have won but it was a closer on a real speed track. the best guy to claim from was ronnie houghton. he had good stock but i think he just went out to the pasture and threw a bridle on. Banjopicker, a nice horse for steve krebs was a houghton claim. i can remember a trifecta at the pha where all three horses were either first or second off the claim from houghton. bernard houghton who i believe to be the son is doing the training now. still worth following.

you asked for trainers. here are some obscure ones. edward english w a fts usually a mcl. got this from bain. phenomenal record. usually a homebred. the sire he stands may be getting older so don't know about this.

ken furlong. good with the babies. just won a 2f race at 9-1 at del on monday. has a nice turf mare, walkin in da sun, that throws runners.

paul conrad. sometimes takes over a jayeffbee horse from alan goldberg and runs at the pha. good angle at the pha for years. first time out for conrad on this move.

carlos soto. really obscure. good horseman who can move a horse up. had a first time soto horse pay $70 late last year.

a little angle i'm working on is teams. looking for guys who collude. never claim off each other, may share a barn or owner, enter horses out of conditions or in odd spots so that the race will fill,then one may scratch or better yet, keep the horse in a dull try. don't think i should name names here as this is a public forum. PA might think i'm accusing somebody of dishonesty . not my intention. just how the game is played. not so sure on this anyway.

Originally Posted by cash2

most important to me is who they claim from

Yup. I don't bet many even money shots, but when Mike Pino took one from Tom Pavlick about 2 years ago, I knew the critter would move up 8 lengths easy. Total serenity. Started me on my own 'who did he claim from' campaign.

I know about Conrad and Jayeff B, but I don't have much on either Soto or English.

But Furlong -- 39/1, 17/1, 17/1 again. YIKES !!! Thanks, Cash. Will investigate.

One guy I'm working up is Scott Volk. Rehabs banged up old veterans, then --
KABOOM !!!

Some results of horses running 1st after a claim from the following trainers.
Numbers are claims, wins, places and some Avg. Win Payouts.

Robbie Bailes 16 5/2
Ryan Beattie 4 3/1
Hubert Cave 3 2/0
Ed Coletti 9 3/1
Joe Delozier 7 3/1
Doc Fisher 7 4/0
Mitch Friedman 8 3/1
Paul McClelland 17 5/2
Mike Matz 6 3/2
Keith LeBarron 13 5/1
King L. 16 5/2
Tim Hooper 25 7/5 (mostly Michael Gill horses?)
Pete Klesaris 13 5/8
Bob Klesaris 51 10/10 $15.74
Steve Klesaris 31 7/7 $11.01
Leslie Glazier 6 3/0 $25.60
Dom Galluscio 37 9/1
Don Reeder 16 4/3 $21.25
Peggy Pruitt 8 5/1
Mike Pino 101 20/17 $14.94 (Surprising)
Graham Motion 16 5/3 $13.52
Jerry Thurston 16 5/0 $11.96

Note: this data is somewhat incomplete. Knowing who made the claims is also a big part of the puzzle. But there it is....

If you're like me, you thought the way to play the game was to wait until Pino claimed one, then bet it. Better to wait until he has one taken away. Much more profitable.

[betchatoo]

Bathless:

I'm amazed at your generosity, sharing this info that you took the time to put together. Thank you

[cash2]

great list! thanks. i still see tracy brown at delpark once in a while. last year i think she was working over at the fair hill training center. still looks good!

Originally Posted by betchatoo

I'm amazed at your generosity, sharing this info that you took the time to put together. Thank you

Don't thank me yet. The game changes from day to day. Besides, the exercise is causing me to refresh my memory about a lot of this stuff and I've just gotten several great ideas from others.

But a light bulb just went on.

Thinking about Small's stretchout/switch to the grass pattern reminded me of something I just read at: horsestats.blogspot.com

A fellow who calls himself statsman writes about an even sprint running line to look for in a stretch-out horse. I'm wondering if that wasn't what I was seeing with Small's maidens 12 years ago. Unfortunately, I don't have any 12 year old Forms lying around. Or fortunately, 'cause they'd stink to high hell by now. Anyway, read it, but do so carefully. Statsman is not claiming that horses with this running line win 20% (or whatever) of races. What he is saying is that in races won by a horse paying over 15/1, a large % were won by a horse stretching out for the first time and showing an evenly run sprint in the prior race. At least that's my interpretation. In any event, big difference.

I'm just starting to look for these. I thought I had one at MTH on Saturday, but I passed when the trainer didn't show any strength with the move. A Pletcher stretchout won at a short price and they're still trying to find my critter. Probably want to look for a stamina-oriented pedigree, too.

The numbers for Pete Klesaris are wrong.

Should be 13 5/3, not 13 5/8. 13 5/8 is scary.

[Stevie Belmont]

Goldberg is great when running a horse on the grass for the first time after it has run on dirt only. Almost 30%.

Originally Posted by cash2

i still see tracy brown at delpark once in a while. last year i think she was working over at the fair hill training center. still looks good!

Hey, cash, give her a big wet one for me. Tell her Bathless says hello. She'll remember.

Stevie, I noticed the URL. Do you know Bobby H? I went to HS with his pop. Didn't know him; he was 3 years behind me, I'm sad to say.

[Stevie Belmont]

Some Monmouth Trainers who do well

Ned Allard-Smart trainer, has horses ready when shipped.
Kelly Breen- Last years meet leader.
Danny Lopez- Horses always well meant.
Tim Hills- Always among the leaders, good horseman.
Vicki Oliver- Always has some nice turfers
Greg Sacco- Continues to get better stock
Jason Servis- Had a big year last, should do well again
Pete Walder- Smart, always dangerous off the claim
Alan Seewald- Gets his share
Jamie Woodington- Good trainer, gets horses ready
Willard Thompson- Oldie with plenty of J Breds always
Norman Pointer- Solid on turf
Kevin Sleeter- Great with young J Bred Stock
Ben Perkins Jr- Always comes up with good horses
Joe Pierce- Usually has a good meet
Ed Broome- Horses get ready in Florida and do well here
Jimmy Ryerson- Has some ready to go, good horseman