Now it's time for some real handicapping - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

LemonSoupKid · 05-07-2006, 11:29 PM

First off, congratulations to those who had Barbaro. That said, I really think the true handicapping starts with the next jewel. Entering a situation with a smaller field, and with the likes of SNS, BD, and LR all coming back to get a shot at Matz superstar, this race looks to be a really GREAT Preakness. This next one is the true test for handicapping, in my opinion. Good luck, guys

LSK

kenwoodallpromos · 05-07-2006, 11:32 PM

Right now someone could beat Barbaro in the Preakness, but I hope not.
I just notice on ths chart that 10 Derby horses had negative comments as to the start?

JPinMaryland · 05-08-2006, 12:26 AM

Funny, I thought the announcer said it was a clean start for all. Only later did I learn that SNS found trouble and much later found out Barb. had stumbled.

BTW: What is Barbaro's nickname going to be? Dont all great horses eventually get a nick name? And once a nickname is born, that's it, that's the one you get forever. How about: The Beast...

Bob and John predictably found trouble right off the bat. Breaking next to Barbaro I figured as much. Still had him in the bottom of exotics.

Barbaro seems to have many of the tools needed for Preakness. Good early speed, can accelerate in a short time, seems to dominate in close quarters...

One thing that may be a weakness is he is big and I guess bigger horses sometimes have trouble w/ turns. I know Pimlico's turns arent really sharper but there is a perception that they are...hmm

toetoe · 05-08-2006, 01:26 AM

The Barbaro Seville?

hurrikane · 05-08-2006, 06:09 AM

With a 20 horse field I would expect 10 to be in trouble. but from everything I saw there was nothing that any could use as an excuse.

I believe the question of Pimilco is the was the turns are banked and usually the run to the first turn. That will not be as much a factor in the Preakness.
Post Position will play a major role however. Barbaro pulls an outside post and he has his work cut out for him. However, if he is really good enough for the triple crown then that should not be an excuse for him.

Tom · 05-08-2006, 10:07 AM

"Babo"

"Babs"

cj · 05-08-2006, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hurrikane

With a 20 horse field I would expect 10 to be in trouble. but from everything I saw there was nothing that any could use as an excuse...

I would think Brother Derek losing a football field worth of ground on the turns would be an excuse. Well, except that his connections preordained a bad trip by selecting the 18 hole over the 1 and 3 holes. Put BD in the 1 or 3 holes, he might have traffic problems, or he might get a perfect stalking trip like Barbaro did. Put him in the 18 hole, and anyone could guess what was going to happen.

I say the same thing every year, but the idiocy continues year after year. Too many mint juleps on the morning of the draw?

JPinMaryland · 05-08-2006, 06:09 PM

Gee I didnt even realize that (about PP draw). Yeah that looks bad now. Even at the time,you just look at the stats for PP and see that even the 1 pp still produces winners from time to time.

Joe L. · 05-08-2006, 07:07 PM

How bout "Vinnie"as in Vinnie BARBARinO of Welcome Back Kotter fame.
On second thought...... nevermind

nativenova · 05-08-2006, 07:38 PM

as Vinnie would say "what", "where", maybe we could get a note from Epstein's mother?signed by who else? Epsteins mother..that was a classic

Murph · 05-08-2006, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJ

I would think Brother Derek losing a football field worth of ground on the turns would be an excuse. Well, except that his connections preordained a bad trip by selecting the 18 hole over the 1 and 3 holes. Put BD in the 1 or 3 holes, he might have traffic problems, or he might get a perfect stalking trip like Barbaro did. Put him in the 18 hole, and anyone could guess what was going to happen.

This point is what I took from the trips, I thought it looked liked Brother Derek only lost the race by as much ground as he had lost on the turns = about 100 yds. The way Barbaro took over the race at the 1/4 pole was the most impressive derby move I have ever seen. Brother Derek likely had the worst of it in the derby and may not have much left for the Preakness.
Murph

RXB · 05-09-2006, 12:28 PM

I will reiterate my considerable doubt regarding Barbaro's ability to run three big races in five weeks. I believe that something isn't quite right with this horse and that's why he's been given so much time between his previous starts.

We shall see.

cj · 05-09-2006, 12:36 PM

I tend to believe the connection's explanation...he was prepared for a Triple Crown, not just the Kentucky Derby.

RXB · 05-09-2006, 12:46 PM

I don't.

TommyCh · 05-09-2006, 12:58 PM

cj--Will he have enough bottom for the Preakness and then the Belmont? Nobody know if he can recharge his batteries the way he is going to have to for these two races. Have to bet against him anyway, and this is an angle I can live with, even if it burned me Saturday. But it's a long way until the Preakness, so let's see if he and which others will even run.