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04-20-2018, 10:00 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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The new Points system:Is it a good thing?
I think this is the 5th year it has been in affect, maybe 6. We have seen much more form full winners of the Derbys. This may or not be related to the points as the same size has been smaller.
With that being said there is no doubt though that the paces of the races, and some of the horses who should never be there are no longer qualified. Its much more likely the horses who run in the front part of the pack will not be as compromised by horses with speed and little chance as we saw in in the earlier part of the century. It also happens that speed orientated types dominate american races, so this is generally the better horses coming into the event, not always but the highest percentage.
What is has done though is lower the percentage of the complete chaos event from happening. It can happen but it is just a much much lower percentage chance. The general public loves a Derby like 2005 and 2009 (Giacomo and Mine That Bird). I would also say its been much quicker to force connections off the trail, a pile of money in February starts to mean little when you have no points, before you just kept on going and almost any decent effort in prep sent you on your way.
Does the new points system hurt or help racing when we get more form full winners?
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04-20-2018, 10:04 AM
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#2
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I think this is the 5th year it has been in affect, maybe 6. We have seen much more form full winners of the Derbys. This may or not be related to the points as the same size has been smaller.
With that being said there is no doubt though that the paces of the races, and some of the horses who should never be there are no longer qualified. Its much more likely the horses who run in the front part of the pack will not be as compromised by horses with speed and little chance as we saw in in the earlier part of the century. It also happens that speed orientated types dominate american races, so this is generally the better horses coming into the event, not always but the highest percentage.
What is has done though is lower the percentage of the complete chaos event from happening. It can happen but it is just a much much lower percentage chance. The general public loves a Derby like 2005 and 2009 (Giacomo and Mine That Bird). I would also say its been much quicker to force connections off the trail, a pile of money in February starts to mean little when you have no points, before you just kept on going and almost any decent effort in prep sent you on your way.
Does the new points system hurt or help racing when we get more form full winners?
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I think it is good in a race like the Derby. Formful winners that have a chance to become household names is better than horses that luck into wins and we all know aren't going to be much going forward.
That said, the last two years haven't exactly worked out in that regard.
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04-20-2018, 10:14 AM
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#3
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,090
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There's several things going on here. I don't think its been formful strictly because of the pace although it plays a role. There have been a couple "melt downs" its just that when it happened horses like Orb have been highly touted and played. The other thing is there has not been enough years yet to really tell. The sample is small.
The trends of racing have changed. Horses are being lightly raced. Some promising colts wait until they are 3 before they race. The reason these Derby winners don't become household names is that by August they have been passed by improving "late Season" horses like Arrogate or West Coast. Others don't even learn the game with this schedule and develop later in their careers. Gunrunner was twice the horse he was at 3 by the time he was done. The late start, slower development and early retirements does not help the "House Hold " name value. The new way sort hurts the star power. They really should race a healthy horse at least until they go through being 4 years old. Find out what you got.........before you retire. The incentive has to be changed.
Last edited by burnsy; 04-20-2018 at 10:17 AM.
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04-20-2018, 11:08 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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The Kentucky Derby was more of a puzzle & I enjoyed it more like trying to figure out the Rubik's Cube. With the cheap speed out of the race now that the point system has eliminated it, we haven't seen any 20-1 or 50-1 longshots get a chance to win the race.
Point Given would have won the derby in 2001 if there wasn't cheap speed, although I bet & won with Monarchos, I still think Point Given would have won & been a triple crown winner with the new point system.
I personally prefer the old system, if the derby allows UAE horses, European horses, etc......why not allow cheap speed & anybody else that can get in with warnings?
Anyway, the favorites have dominated 5 str years.......let's see what happens this year.
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04-20-2018, 11:19 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I think its that the best horses in dirt races have front of the pack styles, a style that was completely compromised for over a decade with the crazy derby feaver even with horses who should not have been there. With this out of the way prior form is more relevant. We will still see an occasional longshot of 30/1 but its going to be much rarer throughout the win but I would imagine place and shows as well.
I can think of a number of horses who speed balls compromised.
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04-20-2018, 11:21 AM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
There's several things going on here. I don't think its been formful strictly because of the pace although it plays a role. There have been a couple "melt downs" its just that when it happened horses like Orb have been highly touted and played. The other thing is there has not been enough years yet to really tell. The sample is small.
The trends of racing have changed. Horses are being lightly raced. Some promising colts wait until they are 3 before they race. The reason these Derby winners don't become household names is that by August they have been passed by improving "late Season" horses like Arrogate or West Coast. Others don't even learn the game with this schedule and develop later in their careers. Gunrunner was twice the horse he was at 3 by the time he was done. The late start, slower development and early retirements does not help the "House Hold " name value. The new way sort hurts the star power. They really should race a healthy horse at least until they go through being 4 years old. Find out what you got.........before you retire. The incentive has to be changed.
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While I like the new points system, pretty much for the same reasons that CJ already pointed out, I think you are right on the money as far as trends.
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04-20-2018, 11:25 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
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Yet we've still seen Golden Soul, Curve and Lee all run well enough to get 2nd.
I'd be more inclined to argue the new points system adds to the randomness since it rewards shorter prep campaigns and there are more unknowns.
I certainly wouldn't argue it's been more formful... you can't just look at the winner to draw your conclusions.
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04-20-2018, 11:25 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I would argue in the Orb race the rain and the blinkers which aided Palace Malice in running off was more luck than say tactical to set that kind of pace. Those things can and will happen but its different then Songandaprayer or Trinneburg in the race.
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04-20-2018, 11:48 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
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We'll never see a filly run again, so I say bad.
Plus, Churchill punishes other tracks not owned by Churchill with minor points.
I still follow the Derby Trail.
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04-20-2018, 11:56 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fred Mertz
We'll never see a filly run again, so I say bad.
Plus, Churchill punishes other tracks not owned by Churchill with minor points.
I still follow the Derby Trail.
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Your comment about Churchill is very fair, they now can use the Derby as a political tool, they cant overstep too much without devaluing the Derby itself but they certainly will brush up to that line.
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04-22-2018, 12:11 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 121
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The streak of favorites winning the Derby ends this year. Mark it down.
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04-22-2018, 09:50 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Point Given would have won the derby in 2001 if there wasn't cheap speed,
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Songandaprayer won the FOY and was second in the Blue Grass.
The points system wouldn't have kept him out.
If they went slower Congaree would have won.
Last edited by depalma113; 04-22-2018 at 09:53 PM.
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04-23-2018, 07:55 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 11
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Well, right this down as Justify will make it 6 in a row with Mendelssohn running second.
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