Pace Projection

[papillon]

Originally Posted by cj

TimeformUS shows two horses with a pretty bid edge on the rest of the probables...Justify and Promises Fulfilled.

I know this is based on figures, but do you take into account works at all?

I only ask, because Baffert is clearly prepping Justify to come from off the pace.

[cj]

Originally Posted by papillon

I know this is based on figures, but do you take into account works at all?

I only ask, because Baffert is clearly prepping Justify to come from off the pace.

No, I don't even think that is possible personally.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by cj

No, I don't even think that is possible personally.

CJ don't be so obtuse, Baffert is clearly doing this. What is your problem buddy?!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

After 5 years of favorites with somewhat pedestrian paces, the points system has had a definite effect.

It will change. At some point. Will it be this year?

I'll put it this way. I will certainly be wagering against the past 5 years.

The 9F preps rolling into the KD this year haven't shown any hot-footed heat, but all the favorites are pretty much front-enders of some sort.

Give me 1:10 and change and I'll be a happy clam.

[Tom]

Here' my pace projections - first number if 6F time, last if Final Time. 1 point = 1 length - this is only based on times from the last race. Last # is the power rating.

Nobel............100-80----80
Lone Sailor......96-80----76
Flamaway.......96-85----81
Good Magic.....95-86----81
Free Drop.......93-82----75
Entice...........92-85----77
Vino..............91-88----78
Justify...........90-100---90
Jack..............90-86----76
Bolt...............89-97----86