Rare Pick-Four Ripoff

[toetoe]

At BM today, the pick-three for races 5-6-7 paid $1,464, as opposed to a $2,300 parlay. Okay, nothing tragic, but the pick-four, with a $24 horse in the nightcap, paid not even three times that pick-three. As opposed to a $15,000-plus parlay, it paid $3,585(!) I figured it had paid on three of four, but Equibase says it's four of four. Don't chuck those tickets.

[hurrikane]

toe,

I have the $1 parlay coming out at 8561.

in the first race there were 3 scratches. They are winning tickets as the fav won. If you figure that there would be 3 more people betting the parlay on the last race (more than that but lets keep it simple) that would be a 3,000 bet. No way you get 11-1 on the last race.

The pay is a little low but it's likely because of the fav winning race 5

and- oh yeah..the big takeout

[toetoe]

'kane,

On pick-threes, my shortcut estimation method is the following:

multiply the $2 win payoffs and divide by eight. Okay; leg three paid almost $80, so $6.60 X 19.40 X roughly 80/8 (10) = roughly $1,250.

On pick-fours, divide payoffs by sixteen.
$6.60 X 19.40 X roughly 80/16 (5) X $24.40 = roughly $15,000.

[toetoe]

Sorry, hurrikane, I skimmed right over your scratch theory without reading it. I suppose the scratch-and-get-favorite angle accounts for some of it, especially as it seems the scratched horses were favored over the 2/1 before they scratched. Maybe this horse was at 8/1 before the plethora of scratches. As to the rake, it's not so big when you consider that the four win-rakes add up to 61%-plus. Also, the final pick-three is right in line with the pick-four; i.e., slightly more than 1/3 of the pick-four after the 2/1 first-leg winner. And that's with the scratch race out of the picture.

[Macdiarmadillo]

Very disappointing , yes; an "all-all-all-all" ticket would have cost 3920.

Most people are in the exotic pools, and not at all in the straight pools. I don't think straight vs. exotic odds relate to each other that much any more, particularly when you get down to fields of 7 (or less). My edyoocated guess is a fair number of BM bettors wheeled that turf leg -- you should see all the P6, P4, P3, double folks celebrating when a longshot comes in like that (and how quiet it gets when they lose the next leg, which they probably went light on to be able to play the wheel). Seems to happen in a fair number of turf races there.