Not The same Female Longshot Trainer Thread!

[cash2]

the old one got big and clunky and, well, old. just want to mention to doc, hurrikane, capper lou, and anybody else that Maria Pascual is back on the job at DelPark. she may be pushing a stroller, but she is hands on again and at the barn every day. no wins so far but the horses have run well. hoping we can grab a few winners at a nice price. btw, all horses trained by Juan Vasquez were basically horses in her barn. capable, but may not have the touch that maria has.

[Turfday]

In the last three years...that is, 1,095 calendar days back from today...and based on a good sample size of 300 or more starters (100 per year)...the most consistent female trainers in the country have been:

JAYNE VADERS (188 wins from 748 total starters / 25%)
STEPHANIE BEATTIE (112 wins from 437 total starters / 26%)

For value, based on above mentioned criteria, how about this female trainer?:

MICHELLE LOVELL (60 wins from 387 starters / 16%, average price win mutuel = $14.00)

During the last three-year period, Beattie and Lovell showed a nice flat-bet profit betting on all of their starters.

[Stevie Belmont]

Vaders took over for Mcaslin down in Philly. And it was a near 30% barn when he was the trainer as well.

[andicap]

Turfday,

Have you ever done any sort of a study to see what percentage of positive ROI trainer stats for a calendar year repeat themselves the next year OR the following two out of three years (everything's entitled to an off year).

It's funny --- all the years of keeping these stats and all the reams of figures generated. Is there any research anywhere on the actual predictive value of them???

I'm not trying to be a cynic -- I'm just asking.

[Turfday]

Andi........

I think you'll agree that it's tough to gauge any "predictive value" in this game. With trainers, their stock changes every year. Owners come and go, etc.

There are those that believe in short term stats...who is hot NOW...as there is certainly something to be said for that.

My stats, which also incorporate a formula I call "Betting Value Averages," take into consideration what's happening right now and give that stronger weight than what happened 10 or 11 months ago or 34, 35 or 36 months ago. Sample size incorporates all that.

Predictive value?

I have stats on trainers going back to Jan. 1, 1995. Can you turn predictive value into an impact value? Seriously, I'm not that skilled.

However, I have confidence that if I look back on certain trainers using search criteria "since Jan. 1, 1995," last 1,095 calendar days or last 365 days and that his recent stats (in a certain category, mind you) are as good as his long term stats, that's enough predictive value for me.

So I look at each of my three search criterias...long term, mid-term, short term.

Example: Northern California trainer Lloyd Mason.

Has started 3,521 horses since Jan. 1, 1995. 516 wins (15%). Average price win mutuel $14.

Has started 745 horses in last 1,095 days. 145 wins (19%). Average price win mutuel $14.

Has started 251 horses in last 365 days. 51 wins (20%). Average price win mutuel $14.

This past week, he's had winners of $27.60, $20.20 and $13.20.

And this is a guy competing in Northern California where the fields are small.

I wish that I knew the correct way to quantify the predictive value you mention. I'm using brain logic to do it now. Look at the long term stats and see if the mid-term and short term stats are about equal or better than the long term stats. So it's not a "fluke." Then "trust the trainer." And another helpful key sometimes is the jockey he is using.

As a strategic partner of Equibase, I have stats on every trainer. I keep my own personal watch list. That list can fluctuate as I update it three or four times a year. But there are certain trainers that have remained on it since I began keeping it a couple of years ago. So that's my loose way of "predictive value."

I wish there were a better way!

[cash2]

well i reactivated this thread because there were several people on this board who were big fans of maria pascual, myself included. my point is that last year, she was was pregnant and went home to argentina. thru the end of the delaware meet all her her horses ran in her name. at gulfstream they ran in the name in the name of juan vasquez. this is apparently the same guy who saddled her horses at delaware while she was out of the country. how do i know this ? i cheated! I looked! in person!

as i said , i just wanted to alert maria's fans that she is back and maybe you can make some money. as to trainer stats, Turfday, i think you have a great site, but i doubt you have a category TRAINERS WHO RESIDE ON A DIFFERENT CONTINENT.

[hurrikane]

Yo cash,

thanks for the heads up on Pascual. I was wondering what was going on with her just the other day.

Thanks for starting up the thread again too.

Agreed Turf, like you I have a watch list as well. Over time some go hot and some go cold. It does seem as though some are very good at certain tracks, distances, or surfaces and not very good at others. Not sure it is a matter of pointing for a meet, the barn accomodations the get, grooms, personal life, or data static but it does seem to repeat pretty consistantly over the years.

[Turfday]

'Kane....I just counted and I have 42 trainers on my personal watch list and 125 different trainer/jockey combinations. (There are various, particular trainers that are on the t/j list with three or four different jockeys).

For the most part, the trainers on my t/j watch list are many of the trainers on my trainer list. So, in essence, I have cross-checked when the trainer pops up on the watch list it's makes it simpler to see if he's using one of his "go to" jockeys. Of course, over time, this can change and fluctuate as well, so updating maybe three times a year in neceessary.

In the near future, I will have a new search engine that I think will come in very handy instead of trainer/jockey: jockey/trainer. Search by jockey's name and then find out how many mounts he has had, winners, itm finishes, etc. for any given trainer.

Right now, I only have the opposite available...search by trainer and find out which jockeys have ridden for him, number of mounts, winners, itm, etc.

I'm really anxious to do it in reverse, because I know it's going to uncover some real nuggets of information.

Do you have that search available or know if it's available elsewhere? (I don't use DRF's Formulator).

[hurrikane]

Turf,

Interesting line of thougth. I can set up some queries tonight and let them run and see what pops up. I'll email them to you or post up here.

[CapperLou]

Thanks for the heads up Cash! I had noticed that Maria had gone to Argentina sometime ago, but just returned. I have taken a breather from playing to refine my money management techniques since last October. I am just beginning to play again now that my "good to me" venues have opened--APX, DEL, WOX in particular.

I will certainly take note of the lady(Vaders) at Philly--although I normally do not play there and the guy(Mason) at No Cal. He seems very interesting. Hope you all are doing well!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[cash2]

turf... i was sincere when i said you had a great site. i was a little over the top in my comments. i'm strictly a mid atlantic man and keep my own stats but anybody who plays multiple circuits could profit from your stuff.

maria won today at del. convincing win but short price (i thought). as to vaders, stevie b is right upthread. she and former pha power trainer john mcaslin are hooked up. just look at the winners circle after a vaders win. mccaslin is always there. mccaslin is just as much a magician or (insert noun here) as lake, dutrow etc. in the tenth today at the pha the vaders first off a claim opened up as the big fav in a 12 horse field. no way on paper this horse who's lifetime best is ten beyer points below several others should be favored. went off as the fav, crushed field.

interesting...mr.speedfigures himself, jerry brown said on his own board
on thorograph.com that there was nowhere where the trainer factor was more dominant than the midatlantic states. and the the track where this applied most of all was delaware park. i'm inclined to agree.

[speedking]

Thanks for the update, Cash. I thought McCaslin was barred from the track due to legal problems or even locked up. Well aware of Vayders "skills" however.

This has been just about my primary MO for about 17 years. Over that time, I have noticed a steady erosion of profits as information has become more widely available. Now, pick up a form and you know things I needed to uncover in dBase III back in 1990. How do you stay ahead? You've got to go deeper than the information that's out there.

Many trainers have great skills with sprinters, but can't get a horse to go 2 turns in a taxi cab. Some have a great eye for finding talented horseflesh (i.e., claiming), but are mediocre trainers. They'll win first out (off the previous trainer's work), but after that, the new claim loses form. Some can get a horse fit and keep him that way, i.e., repeat, and the more obscure the trainer, the better. I know one guy who is dynamite winning with routers when he hurries them back in 6-8 days (would you believe 60% wins and that's after he has cooled down a bit), but can't win at all applying the same move to a sprinter.

Statistics on stretch outs are widely available, but do you know who the trainers are that win a lot going long the second time?

I play MTH and PHA pretty much exclusively, while also tracking 'feeder circuits' like DEL, MD and NYRA (I need to add PEN). One thing I learned a long time ago is that in NJ, e.g., about 30-35 trainers win about half of all races at MTH/MED. So every year, I take about 8-10 trainers and follow their every move, win or lose. Pretty soon, I get a good handle on when their horses are ready and well meant. I watch everything -- works, equipment, bit changes (if I can find that out). And I still remember a lot about the group of trainers I watched last year and the year before that.

Like everything, hard work usually gets better results. From my database, I actually keep track of trainers to claim from and not claim from. Planning on taking one from Mike Hushion? Don't expect to win first out. At least not often.

My experience has been that knowing that a guy wins with 12% of his maiden claimers (or whatever) just isn't that valuable anymore.

[cash2]

good post and good points bathless. i remember about a year you made a similar post that impressed me. it reminded me of a monmouth player who made a few very similar and savvy posts on the now defunct (afaik) ed bain board. possibly you!

Ed Bain's site is still there, isn't it? I posted there a few times. I had a few criticisms on Susan Sweeney's book and *poof* -- the board was gone. Wasn't even strong criticism. I took issue with her belief that trainers rarely double on a given day. I ran the numbers at DEL, PHA, MTH, NYRA and MD and found that, on any given day at any track, some trainer will double about 1/2 the time. This is probably due to the dominance of power trainers, e.g., Lake, Dutrow, Pletcher, but also includes less well known trainers like Patricia Farro. On the day immediately after a recent Belmont Stakes (last 3 or 4 years), Pletcher won the first 4 races in succession at BEL!

Nevertheless, Susan did have a valid statistical point and I could see where that board was more trouble than it was worth to them.

Even Ed's stuff isn't enough anymore. My buddies and I are constantly 'training' horses. We'll watch a race, maybe see something interesting, then try to figure where the trainer might spot the critter next out. It probably started with HOLY BULL after the Derby. After about 15 minutes, we decided that, if we trained him, we'd pass the Preakness and Belmont and run him in the Met Mile. We were right about that and playing at it ever since.

Another thing I like to track is key races. From the DRF and such, you can easily know how the top 3 in a race did next out, but I keep track of the whole field. You have to tread lightly with key races, because, for every race, someone has to win, so 2 winning on a big class drop is no great shakes. But sometimes a real gem will arise.

Same thing for pedigree: rather than use general pedigree stats, I watch by track, by surface, and by track/course condition, e.g., winning sires on the inner course at SAR when the footing is less than firm.

Fact is that it's an information game. Everyone has speed figures and now everyone has trainer stats, at least superficial stats. The art of this is finding something valuable while not getting overwhelmed by all the data, something I often struggle with.