TimeformUS Pace/Speed Figures from Derby day

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Tread

There have been accusations of a speed bias all over the internet, and you people are not reading the charts.

8 of the top 10 in the Derby were in the bottom 10 at both the 1/2 and 3/4, not even remotely an example of "closers never close". If you look at the races directly before and after the Derby, the horses who were 1-2-3 at the half mile did not finish in the exacta, several horses moved up their placings from the back at the mid point of the race.

People are so conditioned to say "sloppy tracks favor speed" that they get lazy and don't actually look at the chart data and race replays. Abosolutely impossible to argue a speed bias at the time of the Derby when you take these surrounding facts into play. Justify was able to stay out in front over a track that was incredibly tiring, and if anything, was playing favorably to closers.

You are SO right. I guess the decades of me watching sloppy track races all over the country gave me the wrong impression. I'm glad you straightened me out.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Augenj

You are SO right. I guess the decades of me watching sloppy track races all over the country gave me the wrong impression. I'm glad you straightened me out.

Long term there is little doubt wet tracks help speed horses. Derby day, closers did just fine once the track was wet in other races besides the Derby. The 10th and 13th were won from well off the pace, the dirt races on either side of the Derby.

Obviously the track probably got a lot of work all day so it is possible the tracks was quite a bit different not only for the Derby, but for every dirt race.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Long term there is little doubt wet tracks help speed horses. Derby day, closers did just fine once the track was wet in other races besides the Derby. The 10th and 13th were won from well off the pace, the dirt races on either side of the Derby.

Obviously the track probably got a lot of work all day so it is possible the tracks was quite a bit different not only for the Derby, but for every dirt race.

I am not using any figures or trips from the derby

the best horse going in won, and the second best and third best (debatable) ran that way.

There is nothing to be learned from that race that using figures from the preps dont already tell me.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by cj

Long term there is little doubt wet tracks help speed horses. Derby day, closers did just fine once the track was wet in other races besides the Derby. The 10th and 13th were won from well off the pace, the dirt races on either side of the Derby.

Obviously the track probably got a lot of work all day so it is possible the tracks was quite a bit different not only for the Derby, but for every dirt race.

Great observations as usual, CJ.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I am not using any figures or trips from the derby

the best horse going in won, and the second best and third best (debatable) ran that way.

There is nothing to be learned from that race that using figures from the preps dont already tell me.

I agree. The Derby is usually a throw out race for most horses anyway, but never more so than this year.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by lured

I hope so. It just seems odd that all but a couple of them(Audible and Instilled Regard) couldn't hardly close the gap on a 53 second final half mile. The whole point of tactfully staying off the pace is to save some gas to make to later moves. When the leader gives 1 minute and 18 seconds to do that in the final 3/4 mile, I would think it shouldn't be that difficult to do so. Not saying they would've or should've over taken him, but they should've forced him to run a lot faster.

I would venture the distance was too much for the most of the whole field, they all staggered home whether they exerted themselves early or not. The Belmont should be interesting.

[Tread]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Great observations as usual, CJ.

Awesome.

I tell you the track wasn't speed favoring at all and get a sarcastic remark.

CJ tells you the track wasn't speed favoring at all and he gets

:T hmbUp::Thm bUp::ThmbU p:

But I will thank CJ for confirming my point, people who think all sloppy tracks favor front-running speed are being lazy. The truth is in the charts. A sloppy track based on 3 inches of constant rain the entire day is going to be different than most other sloppy tracks. As the charts show.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Tread

Awesome.
people who think all sloppy tracks favor front-running speed are being lazy

Maybe I should have said that sloppy tracks "generally" favor speed and of course that would still be way out of line in your world, eh? Maybe after years and years of watching races on sloppy tracks and betting on speed and winning overall, I should pack it in and not bet anymore?

[Tom]

Tread......or RE-Tread?