Wood Memorial

[Tread]

Originally Posted by RXB

Exactly.

The other real point is that a fast final fraction is not necessarily indicative of either the ability or conditioning for running a longer distance successfully, especially when it involves a horse that is positioned very forwardly early on an absolutely dawdling pace. Again, Uncle Mo in the Wood at 1/9, very similar scenario.

Neither is a fast final overall time, unless you are trying to argue Governor Charlie should be one of the top 3 favorites in the Derby.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tread

What is the record for the horse with the highest BSF in the last race prior, how many of them end up winning? This is the point I was making.

Actually, pretty sure it has a fabulous ROI and a good winning %. Wanna make a bet on that one, since you doubt it so much?

To nitpick the Barbaro race is being ridiculous. Giacomo, sure, but he said it was a stretch. There are many good examples of dominating performances on that list and you pick out two? Come on.

[Tread]

Originally Posted by cj

Actually, pretty sure it has a fabulous ROI and a good winning %. Wanna make a bet on that one, since you doubt it so much?

To nitpick the Barbaro race is being ridiculous. Giacomo, sure, but he said it was a stretch. There are many good examples of dominating performances on that list and you pick out two? Come on.

LOOOOL, so we can nitpick a narrow victory by Verrazano, but we can't nitpick a much more narrow victory by Barbaro? Why not?

Did IHA run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Did AK run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Did Super Saver run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Did MTB run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Big Brown Did.
I then have to go all the way back to War Emblem to find another one. Which including that I'm sure helps your ROI.

Now, if you want to argue that racing and Derby prepping is the same today as it was 15 or 20 years ago, that is a whole other discussion, and if you are taking the position that it is, I highly disagree. But I do know that only once in the last 10 years has the highest last race BSF won the race, and that was Big Brown.

[Striker]

Originally Posted by Tread

Why would this race have mattered one single bit? He was already qualified for the Derby and these connections are not idiots, they know the long recent history of overcranked horses running huge preps one from the Derby and bombing. Your assumption that this race mattered to him or his connections, other than the purpose of conditioning and learning, is as flawed as the rest of the logic you have brought to this thread.

You don't think it is important to win a Grade 1 race whenever you can to the owners of any horse?

[Tread]

Originally Posted by Striker

You don't think it is important to win a Grade 1 race whenever you can to the owners of any horse?

Compared to winning the Derby and leaving some horse left to attempt it with? Not anywhere near as important.

Did they still win? Yes, they did, they did just enough to win the race and nothing more.

When you have a 3yr old this talented, you care about getting to the Derby in one piece. The race before the Derby is not more important than any other races, unless you are a fringe contender who needs to prove he belongs. That was not the case here.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tread

LOOOOL, so we can nitpick a narrow victory by Verrazano, but we can't nitpick a much more narrow victory by Barbaro? Why not?

Did IHA run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Did AK run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Did Super Saver run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Did MTB run the fastest Beyer in the last round of Derby preps? Nope.
Big Brown Did.
I then have to go all the way back to War Emblem to find another one. Which including that I'm sure helps your ROI.

Now, if you want to argue that racing and Derby prepping is the same today as it was 15 or 20 years ago, that is a whole other discussion, and if you are taking the position that it is, I highly disagree. But I do know that only once in the last 10 years has the highest last race BSF won the race, and that was Big Brown.

In a field of 20 horses, I wouldn't expect the top Beyer to win very often, just like any other factor. The last 10 years is not a very good sample.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...9&postcount=28

Big Brown
Fu Peg
Silver Charm
Charismatic
War Emblem
Lil E Tee

Those are the winners.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Tread

Neither is a fast final overall time, unless you are trying to argue Governor Charlie should be one of the top 3 favorites in the Derby.

Did I say Governor Charlie should be one of the favourites? I've never written his name in a post before, but nice try.

You, on the other hand, I could quote arguing to improve the case for Verrazano based on a final fraction that is largely the function of a very soft pace.

And your posts make me think very much of a former poster on this board. Very, very much. In fact, I still might be using "very" too few times. Smart guy, almost as smart as he thought he was, who frequently tossed insults at other posters in both direct and vaguely couched fashion. I almost feel like posting a link to his most infamous moment on this board, although for some strange reason I feel I might be less inclined to do so if your own decorum were to improve.

[cj]

Isn't Tread the guy that was touting El Padrino last year? I ask, because I think he just finished.

[Tread]

Originally Posted by cj

In a field of 20 horses, I wouldn't expect the top Beyer to win very often, just like any other factor. The last 10 years is not a very good sample.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...9&postcount=28

Big Brown
Fu Peg
Silver Charm
Charismatic
War Emblem
Lil E Tee

Those are the winners.

And going back 15,20,30 years is a ridiculous way to run analysis because the game is constantly evolving, not to mention a ridiculous way to structure a wager/measure ROI when you can only make one bet a year. If you read a little more closely, I already addressed this point before you posted it. In order to use an analysis like this, you are arguing that racing and Derby preps are the same as they were 20 years ago. I disagree.

If I went back 20 or 30 or 50 years, I could use data to make an argument that a horse needs more than 2 starts to win the Derby. When I only use the last 8-10 years, the current reality is completely different.

If I went back 20 or 30 or 50 years, I could use data to make an argument that a horse needs to have raced within 4 weeks of the Derby to win. When I only use the last 8-10 years, the current reality is completely different.

If I used post position analysis from the past 50 years, I could argue that the 1 hole is really good based on the winning %. Trainers wouldn't touch the 1 hole in the Derby with a 10 foot pole.

Funny you mentioned the 20 starter thing too, because the further back in history you go, the smaller the starting fields become, and we've only had a full 20 in the gate less than 10 times I think.

This statistical analysis is pointless. None of it changes the fact that most outfits are aware of the need to try to save some horse left for the Derby, unless they are still desperately trying to qualify. This doesn't mean they are going to wrap things up so much they will finish last, but if you are using one of those mind-numbingly dumb computer programs that only looks at one raceline and you use that race as the horse's best, you are making a mistake in this specific case.

[Tread]

Originally Posted by cj

Isn't Tread the guy that was touting El Padrino last year? I ask, because I think he just finished.

Considering he came out of the race injured, it's safe to say he was not able to run his race that day. If you can predict races that horses are going to be injured in, you are quite a handicapper.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tread

This statistical analysis is pointless. None of it changes the fact that most outfits are aware of the need to try to save some horse left for the Derby, unless they are still desperately trying to qualify. This doesn't mean they are going to wrap things up so much they will finish last, but if you are using one of those mind-numbingly dumb computer programs that only looks at one raceline and you use that race as the horse's best, you are making a mistake in this specific case.

Well, looking at Valuist's list, there wasn't a lot of saving going on for most of the winners.

I really don't need handicapping tips from you, but thanks anyway. And no, I don't use a computer program that picks a paceline.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tread

Considering he came out of the race injured, it's safe to say he was not able to run his race that day. If you can predict races that horses are going to be injured in, you are quite a handicapper.

It was the last opinion I could actually find that you gave.

[Tread]

Originally Posted by cj

It was the last opinion I could actually find that you gave.

Yes, because that would invalidate the sensible points I've made in this thread.

[Tread]

Originally Posted by cj

Well, looking at Valuist's list, there wasn't a lot of saving going on for most of the winners.

I really don't need handicapping tips from you, but thanks anyway. And no, I don't use a computer program that picks a paceline.

Never directly accused you of that, but there are many people in this thread that have implied that because they feel his last race wasn't great, that he has no chance. This type of logic is doing exactly what I said, ripping out that last raceline and throwing it into a computer, without considering the other races and overall picture.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tread

Yes, because that would invalidate the sensible points I've made in this thread.

No, I was just wondering if you had any history of being right. You know, some credibility.