The Travers Stakes ( Grade I ) 8/26/2023

[bisket]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Never know, could be, I don't think I'd want a penny on him if that's the plan. Surrounded again. Looking forward to Frank's call, I'm rooting for the 'Champ'.

He would be much better off upfront. He doesn’t really have tactical speed for Irad to get position. That’s why he’s outside all the time. His best attribute is he’s very competitive and likes to be in front. I think there’s two or three in here that are faster than him. They’ll be a few lengths in front while he’s competing to fill out the tri or super. That’s my view right now, but I’ll see if something changes for me when I study the race.

[$w1fT]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

They drew the Travers field but not the rest of the card ?

That would make too much sense. Why try to parlay excitement for the day by unveiling the rest of the card?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by bisket

He would be much better off upfront. He doesn’t really have tactical speed for Irad to get position. That’s why he’s outside all the time. His best attribute is he’s very competitive and likes to be in front. I think there’s two or three in here that are faster than him. They’ll be a few lengths in front while he’s competing to fill out the tri or super. That’s my view right now, but I’ll see if something changes for me when I study the race.

Failing to see why Forte would even look to press the pace or even be involved in the pace.

In his 9 career races, he has never been on or pressing the lead in any of them. Why would he change tactics now when his true calling is a relentless closer that fights to the wire?

He is going to be the post time favorite, so why would they want to change tactics and tangle with a front-running Baffert and take away his greatest asset? Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense to me.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Failing to see why Forte would even look to press the pace or even be involved in the pace.

In his 9 career races, he has never been on or pressing the lead in any of them. Why would he change tactics now when his true calling is a relentless closer that fights to the wire?

He is going to be the post time favorite, so why would they want to change tactics and tangle with a front-running Baffert and take away his greatest asset? Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense to me.

I’m not saying they will or should, but his biggest problem is he has no quickness. Life would a lot easier for him on the lead.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by bisket

There’s no way they overcome that slow pace and sitshow in stretch, to run a career best. On top of that they’re running Saudi Crown in shorter distances going forward. None of that says to me that figure is reliable. Derby and Belmont days you have good races to base a figure on. I’m betting those figures.

Yeah . Kind of thought the same thing . The Jim Dandy had no pace and was a shit show from about three different angles besides the bumping . Plus, I think I heard Baffert is removing the blinkers from his horse . My logics tells me to play Forte and Arcangelo, to me , they are probably the most likely winners . But this Scotland was impressive. Some people have him as the second fastest on their numbers . No blinkers on Bafferts horse and Scotland proved he can clip some quick fractions . The question with him becomes the extra distance . But that’s where you’ll get paid if he holds on for a piece of this . The track announcer calls his race a “Tour de Force “ at the end of the Curlin . The way he ran away from Blazing Sevens at the top of the stretch was something. Was that horse a bounce ? Or did Scotland just beat the crap out of him ? But I totally agree that the Jim Dandy was the shit show prep out of those two races here .

[bisket]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Yeah . Kind of thought the same thing . The Jim Dandy had no pace and was a shit show from about three different angles besides the bumping . Plus, I think I heard Baffert is removing the blinkers from his horse . My logics tells me to play Forte and Arcangelo, to me , they are probably the most likely winners . But this Scotland was impressive. Some people have him as the second fastest on their numbers . No blinkers on Bafferts horse and Scotland proved he can clip some quick fractions . The question with him becomes the extra distance . But that’s where you’ll get paid if he holds on for a piece of this . The track announcer calls his race a “Tour de Force “ at the end of the Curlin . The way he ran away from Blazing Sevens at the top of the stretch was something. Was that horse a bounce ? Or did Scotland just beat the crap out of him ? But I totally agree that the Jim Dandy was the shit show prep out of those two races here .

I haven’t really looked at Scotland lol because pp’s aren’t out yet, but I did look at his Curlin and compared it to the other races that day. An allowance 18k other than finished a 1/2 length faster than Scotland at the same distance a few races afterward. A 1 mile claimer finished faster the race before. I’m throwing that race out because there just isn’t enough data at that new 1/2 turn race. I do think Scotland will like the added distance because he was opening up late in the stretch and then the jock shut it down a few strides before the finish. Mott was quoted as saying that Scotland has picked up in his training lately so there’s likely improvement. If Arcangelo is the horse I think he might be they’re all running for place….

[GMB@BP]

Its funny how much odds factor into an opinion, if Tapit Trice is 12/1 or greater he feels betable if he can improve a bit off his better races.

[BobBaffertsSyringe]

now with Luis Saez injured who gets the mount on Mage?

Flavien as he is without a ride or maybe Tyler as he has ridden
a few times for Mr. Delgado although its only 1/14 according to
DRF Formulator.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bisket

I haven’t really looked at Scotland lol because pp’s aren’t out yet, but I did look at his Curlin and compared it to the other races that day. An allowance 18k other than finished a 1/2 length faster than Scotland at the same distance a few races afterward. A 1 mile claimer finished faster the race before. I’m throwing that race out because there just isn’t enough data at that new 1/2 turn race. I do think Scotland will like the added distance because he was opening up late in the stretch and then the jock shut it down a few strides before the finish. Mott was quoted as saying that Scotland has picked up in his training lately so there’s likely improvement. If Arcangelo is the horse I think he might be they’re all running for place….

On one level Scotland opened up early in a race without much speed on a day where if anything the race flows were tilted towards horses near the front.

On another level, Blazing Sevens who had just missed in the Preakness was over 6 lengths behind Scotland in 3rd (lost some ground) and the 2nd place finisher who Scotland easily repulsed in the Curlin just came back to win at PARX and improve his Beyer figure off that race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bisket

That figure in the Jim Dandy is a toss. It's based on an off the turf 18K other than allowance and gives much of the field a career best.

Beyer has the day fast 15 points for the first 3 dirt races in the card and then fast 10 for the rest of the card with just the 9th race being a bit tough to figure because of the 1M distance. I'm not sure how he's handling that distance, but I can figure it out if necessary.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Interesting article with some interesting quotes from Bill Mott about Scotland.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...Stakes_win_123

He hopes Scotland, short on seasoning but long on potential, can finally end his drought Saturday at Saratoga. “I’ve had a few horses that ran in there and were placed but never quite good enough to get the job done,” Mott noted. “Every time you come, you think, ‘This might be my best shot.’ I can say that again.”

“He did everything right,” Mott said of Scotland’s performance in the Curlin. “Obviously, he’s going against a different group of horses, so he’s got to move forward.”

Although Scotland is rated as the longest shot on the board along with Tapit Trice at 12-1 in the seven-horse field, Alvarado is optimistic about his prospects when they break from farthest outside. “My horse is fresh coming into this race. He hasn’t run tough races back to back, plus I don’t see much speed in the race,” he said. “National Treasure has speed. I want to say I’m going to be one-two the first part of the race.

“I have a horse that is just developing and getting good at the right time. It might be an advantage for me. I wouldn’t trade horses with anyone.”

[PhantomOnTour]

The more I look the more I think this is Forte & Arcangelo, and the rest will be well beaten, except for maybe Disarm, who could surprise.

Mage seems like he's pace dependent and likely will not get the set up he needs. I'll let him beat me.

w

Will take a longer look at Disarm who has progressed steadily without a setback. Could be dangerous if the rains persist the next few days with that Candy Ride in his blood. He has yet to defeat anyone of note so I'll need a big price to use him on top (over 10-1).

Going to be a very nice race

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

On one level Scotland opened up early in a race without much speed on a day where if anything the race flows were tilted towards horses near the front.

On another level, Blazing Sevens who had just missed in the Preakness was over 6 lengths behind Scotland in 3rd (lost some ground) and the 2nd place finisher who Scotland easily repulsed in the Curlin just came back to win at PARX and improve his Beyer figure off that race.

I just finished taking a good look at Scotland. I'd love to have a good excuse to put on my kilt, throw down some Guiness, and cheer Scotland home. (Scotch Irish) I'm just not sold yet. Along with Il Miracolo, Cagliostro shows up in Scotland's past races. It looks like they're competitive in these restricted 3 year old stakes that I equate to overblown allowance races. Verifying beat Cagliostro in the Indy derby, and that's about where I put Scotland right now, alongside Verifying. The Smarty Jones is 1 1/16 mile so I'm not sure Miracolo was backing up as much as Scotland moved forward... The last 1/16 was 7 2/5 in the Curlin, we'll give him a 7 for easing up. Arcangelo gallops 2 to 3 lengths faster than that. A move forward puts him in the place or show for me. I see the hierarchy as Arcangelo, Mage, and the "field" with Forte beating the field consistently. That's what we've seen consistently so far. A horse with speed that doesn't back up beats Forte.... that could be National Treasure as well as Scotland. He's not in this race, but class wise, Geaux Rocket Ride is right there with Arcangelo and Mage.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The more I look the more I think this is Forte & Arcangelo, and the rest will be well beaten, except for maybe Disarm, who could surprise.

Mage seems like he's pace dependent and likely will not get the set up he needs. I'll let him beat me.

w

Will take a longer look at Disarm who has progressed steadily without a setback. Could be dangerous if the rains persist the next few days with that Candy Ride in his blood. He has yet to defeat anyone of note so I'll need a big price to use him on top (over 10-1).

Going to be a very nice race

Arcangelo and Disarm have the best Tomlinson's in the field, and it's not even close.

[bisket]

In the Haskell Tapit Trice was making headway at the end of the backstretch when 60 to 1 Awesome Strong racing with the leaders folded in front of him. He went from just behind the leaders to last in a matter of strides. Jock had to shift him to the right to get out of the way and regroup. A good excuse being overlooked by the public.... that might be the overlay I'm looking for.