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02-20-2018, 09:11 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 151
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Exacta strategies
Most profitable way to bet an exacta? How do you bet exactas?
Weighted Exactas?
Exacta Boxes?
2x3
2x4
only when you have a single?
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02-20-2018, 09:51 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Even payouts 6-1 or better. Make a payoff grid and go from there. Sometimes you will have to make decisions on if the favorite beats you play to break even. Or etcetera. Thinking about x return is key.
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02-22-2018, 10:58 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,218
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I use exactas to dutch against my main plays
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02-23-2018, 07:57 AM
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#4
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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I was just checking if a certain exacta strategy had any value.
the first thing I did was to calculate the exacta's fair value and compare it to the actual pay out.
fair value
two horses A and B
(1/(odds +1) of A)/booking % = say ,aodds
(1/(odds+1) of B)/say booking % = say, bodds
then aodds x (bodds/(1-aodds)) = exacta probability
1/exacta probability = fair $1 exacta payout.
note, booking % = the sum of 1/(odds +1) for all horse in the race.
__________________
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GOD BLESS AMERICA
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Last edited by formula_2002; 02-23-2018 at 08:01 AM.
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02-25-2018, 05:24 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Most profitable way to bet an exacta? How do you bet exactas?
Weighted Exactas?
Exacta Boxes?
2x3
2x4
only when you have a single?
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For me, there are two points to betting exactas. One, you are trying to turn a solid low odds horse (a horse too low in odds to bet outright to win) into the 5-1 or higher horse you'd usually look for, by making an exacta bet. Second you have 2 or 3 inseparable horses, all around the same odds, and instead of making straight bets you look at potential exacta combinations.
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02-25-2018, 08:37 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
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The late movie producer Martin Rhitt was described as a very successful horse player and he made 1X3 exacta keys for $40 and never turned them around.
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02-26-2018, 01:52 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09
The late movie producer Martin Rhitt was described as a very successful horse player and he made 1X3 exacta keys for $40 and never turned them around.
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I guess his horses never ran second
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02-26-2018, 08:21 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I guess his horses never ran second
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He obviously did not care if his horses ran second he played lean and mean LOL
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02-26-2018, 08:57 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09
The late movie producer Martin Rhitt was described as a very successful horse player and he made 1X3 exacta keys for $40 and never turned them around.
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Steve Davidowitz recommends the same exacta strategy in his book BETTING THOROUGHBREDS: 21st Century edition.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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02-26-2018, 09:03 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,454
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In the book Six Secrets of Successful Betting Gerry Okenuff, who went to the races with Rhitt for years talked about his tremendous discipline and ability to never turn around his 1X3 exactas not even for a dime. He played back in the days when the California tracks had the $5 exactas only.
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02-27-2018, 11:01 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,287
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In my view there are 2 times to make an exacta bet. One is to leverage an overlay I see in the win pool and two is to bet when I believe a low priced horse will be out of the top 2. In the first instance, I have found that overlays in the win pool carryover to overlays in the exacta pool. I did not find that the overlay carried over to playing the win overlay in the 2nd spot of the exacta. Hence, I see no reason to reverse the exacta bet made with my win pool overlay. When I feel a low-priced horse will run out of the top 2 boxing contenders is the preferred play.
I have rarely found a situation where an underlay in the win pool could be turned into an overlay in the exacta pools. It usually creates negative leverage.
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02-27-2018, 01:12 PM
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#12
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
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Can get into full-on geek-mode, but the basics are pretty good advice here: - bet the overlay
- don't 'box'
- look for opportunities to exclude a favorite
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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02-27-2018, 01:33 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Aren't we beyond strategy but all about making the money? Thaskalos taught me that. Crist and others laid the groundwork in the most basic but effective terms. Here is a race from 2/23. I am not a big bettor so I think every player can relate. I bet $30-40 on in race exotics but it can snowball with across and win bets. I am usually in the $40-100 range but here is my basic exotic play. Very basic.
Combination-$1 payoff-denomination-payoff
Race 11 Gulfstream Park 2/23/18
8-10--$244--$2--$488
10-8--$168--$2--$336
8-7--$235--$2--$470
7-8--$182--$2--$364
7-10--$43--$7--$301
10-7--$38--$8--$304
I bet $10 to win on the horse at 33-1. An easy end around to the payoff scenario . A few more peripherals and the total bet was $37.
Finish was 7-8-9. The actual return with plummeting exactas was 297.20. This was a good day as I hit 2 more that paidd $248 and $270.
I needed a kick in my ass to think in this basic manner. The handicapping obsession is a good one but ultimately you have to be making money or you aren't a victim of takeout and conspiracy but the willful participation of not capitalizing on your intelligence.
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02-27-2018, 02:22 PM
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#14
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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What happened to Crist?
Took his Eclipse award and went home - deserting the sport he lived off?
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02-27-2018, 02:28 PM
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#15
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,862
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Well, let's see...he's 61...had a heart attack a few years ago that landed him in the hospital for two weeks according to press reports...
That could be a reason for him scaling back...but you're probably right...he probably just upped and "deserted the sport he lived off of"
Does everyone owe you a living, or just people in racing?
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