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Old 10-27-2014, 09:58 PM   #46
cutchemist42
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What odds should it be?


It can't be evens or 2, because that's not fair - you've got much more chance of losing than winning.


Chances of winning - one
Chances of losing - five


The true price of this bet is five to one, or in decimals, 6 (potential profit plus your stake).


So your mate agrees to pay you the true price if you roll a six. You put down £1, he risks £5.


If your price is 5/1, what price is he getting for his bet?


He has five chances of winning, and only one chance of losing. So the odds are 1/5 or in decimals, 1.2.


If you've noticed the similarity, well done. It's simply 'flip the fraction' to work out the other side of the bet.

https://betting.betfair.com/what-is-lay-betting.html
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Old 10-27-2014, 10:24 PM   #47
whodoyoulike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Its a good thinktank where we can come up with short priced horses that are bad picks, maybe some excellent handicappers here don't want to give out their own picks, but if you say that you are betting against this short priced horse, you can join in the fun, give out some valid info to the masses here and protect the price on the horse you actually like. Also, be interesting to see who can sniff out the bad contenders.
To make this productive, will one of the conditions be to state why you don't like the horse? Otherwise, you'd see Belmont, race 3, #6 @ $3.20. Would this be informative?

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Its a good thinktank where we can come up with short priced horses that are bad picks, ... Also, be interesting to see who can sniff out the bad contenders.
So, one of the intents is to identify false favorites which I think makes this a better idea.

Last edited by whodoyoulike; 10-27-2014 at 10:28 PM.
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Old 10-27-2014, 10:28 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
To make this productive, will one of the conditions be to state why you don't like the horse? Otherwise, you'd see Belmont, race 3, #6 @ $3.20. Would this be informative?



So, one of the intents is to identify false favorites which I think is a good idea.
We could encourage people to give a quick reason as to why they're tossing said horse.
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Old 10-27-2014, 10:40 PM   #49
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Ok, how about these rules, we can still tweak it a bit if you have a good suggestion, fire away.

1) horse has to be 19.95-1 or under. If your horse goes off at 20.00-1 or higher, the pick just gets discarded as if you never made the pick at all.

2) Make as many picks as you want from any tracks you want, you're allowed 1 loss, but if you get to 2, you're out.

3) make the selection before the race starts, if the pick loses, you get the odds added to your score. For example, if the horse goes off at 7.20-1, you get 7.2 points added to your total.

4) I think we make it for people to update their own scores and keep track of their own records.

5) You could make the pick and post it in the thread, or you can give a reason for the antipick if you feel like you want to, or have the time.


Any other ideas?
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Old 10-27-2014, 11:25 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Ok, how about these rules, we can still tweak it a bit if you have a good suggestion, fire away.

1) horse has to be 19.95-1 or under. If your horse goes off at 20.00-1 or higher, the pick just gets discarded as if you never made the pick at all.

2) Make as many picks as you want from any tracks you want, you're allowed 1 loss, but if you get to 2, you're out.

3) make the selection before the race starts, if the pick loses, you get the odds added to your score. For example, if the horse goes off at 7.20-1, you get 7.2 points added to your total.

4) I think we make it for people to update their own scores and keep track of their own records.

5) You could make the pick and post it in the thread, or you can give a reason for the antipick if you feel like you want to, or have the time.


Any other ideas?
How about extra credit if your horse is out of the money.
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Old 10-27-2014, 11:41 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Tell me if you think this might be fun and you would want to participate. its essentially a "pick a loser" pool. The rules are simple.

You make picks, you can pick as many horses as you want, from any track you want, harness racing included and here's the way it works.

The horse you select must go off at odds of under 10-1 (9.95-1 or lower). BUT, you're picking horses to LOSE. The key is to see how many "under 10-1" losers you can pick before you mistakenly win. If the first pick you make goes off at 5.20-1 and loses, you have 1 "win" and you add 5.20 to your score . If the next selection (your 2nd selection of the contest) you make goes off at 3.30-1 and also loses, you add 3.30 to your score which would make it 8.50....so, your total would be 2 and 8.50 and so on and so forth.

When you get knocked out, you see how many races you went before getting knocked out and the lower the score, the better the performance, this way, it gives you more incentive to go lower and lower on the odds board. Anyone can wait till the gate loads to see which horse is 9-1 and pick that horse, but if you pick a 9-1 shot, you dont get as much credit because you have to add 9 to your total.

Any ideas to "tweak" the rules i'm all ears. I think this is an easy contest, we can all keep our own scores, you just have to keep track of how many picks you made and when your pick loses, you add the win odds to your total.

Lets see who can survive the longest.

*If you make a pick and it ends up at 10.00-1 or higher, it doesn't count for your score, its as if you never made the pick to begin with.

Shouldn't you get more points if you pick a lower odds horse to lose than if you pick a higher odds horse to lose? For example, if you pick the favorite to lose, that is showing more insight than if you choose a higher odds clunker to lose.
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Old 10-28-2014, 02:31 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
How about extra credit if your horse is out of the money.
I think that would be easy to do if we had someone to volunteer to keep all the scores. But because people are being asked to keep their own scores, i think that just adds one more variable, i want to try and keep it as simple as possible.

How do you suggest numerically to give extra credit?

When each player updates his line, it could look like this?

After 8 picks: 8W 0L 35.70 5OTB

?
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Old 10-28-2014, 02:32 PM   #53
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Shouldn't you get more points if you pick a lower odds horse to lose than if you pick a higher odds horse to lose? For example, if you pick the favorite to lose, that is showing more insight than if you choose a higher odds clunker to lose.
You do get more points as the lower the score, the better the performance.
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Old 11-01-2014, 11:38 PM   #54
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So when you actually will start posting your picks? Or it was just a talk?
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Old 11-01-2014, 11:46 PM   #55
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So when you actually will start posting your picks? Or it was just a talk?
Trying to hammer out the 'rules" to see if anyone really wants to participate. Its an "open comment" period now.
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Old 11-02-2014, 12:01 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Trying to hammer out the 'rules" to see if anyone really wants to participate. Its an "open comment" period now.
I thought it over, SRU...and I think your original 10-1 cutoff point is a good idea. And if a selection goes off at more than 10-1, not only should the pick not count...but the odds total of the horse should be added to the player's score...for shying away from the contenders in the race. The point of this contest should be to eliminate CONTENDERS...not longshots.
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Last edited by thaskalos; 11-02-2014 at 12:03 AM.
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Old 11-02-2014, 01:06 AM   #57
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i like the original rules also.....keep it simple.
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Old 11-02-2014, 03:31 AM   #58
Stillriledup
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
I thought it over, SRU...and I think your original 10-1 cutoff point is a good idea. And if a selection goes off at more than 10-1, not only should the pick not count...but the odds total of the horse should be added to the player's score...for shying away from the contenders in the race. The point of this contest should be to eliminate CONTENDERS...not longshots.
Its tricky to punish the over 10-1 group, what if a person bets a 9-1 shot and at the bell, he drifts to 10-1, its hard to punish someone who was trying to stay under the 10-1 cutoff.
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Old 11-02-2014, 05:10 AM   #59
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Its tricky to punish the over 10-1 group, what if a person bets a 9-1 shot and at the bell, he drifts to 10-1, its hard to punish someone who was trying to stay under the 10-1 cutoff.
Absolutely, we are talking about odds one minute before start. Final odds can be up to 20% different from the last minute odds, but in majority of cases they stay around the same. And I would suggest we make the victory condition that selection should finish out of money, in other words there is no doubt he was false contender. If we make victory condition just not to come first, it will be very easy to get like 20 such selections in row just by pure chance, because winning is a very strict condition.

Last edited by cashmachine; 11-02-2014 at 05:13 AM.
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