Betting to Show on all horses.

[jessetr]

Hi folks,

My first post. Hope this is a somewhat intelligent question:

If I bet to Show on a horse, and he comes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, then I collect.

Wouldn't it be safe and a winning bet to bet Show on all the horses? With the odds so low, I wouldn't be a millionaire, but wouldn't I stand to profit each time?

Thanks!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by jessetr

Hi folks,

My first post. Hope this is a somewhat intelligent question:

If I bet to Show on a horse, and he comes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, then I collect.

Wouldn't it be safe and a winning bet to bet Show on all the horses? With the odds so low, I wouldn't be a millionaire, but wouldn't I stand to profit each time?

Thanks!

No.

You will lose the track takeout percentage in every race in which you wager every horse to Show.

Now, there will be some races in which it is profitable. You'll hear the term bridgejumper, in which a disproportionate amount of money is wagered upon a single horse (many times by a single person or a handful of people) in which the Show pool will be heavily skewed if that horse doesn't hit the board. Bridgejumper pools aren't an everyday thing, and they most certainly aren't even a weekly, if even monthly, type event in which the bridgejumper horse fails to hit the board.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Just for fun I did a quick run through the nine race card at Aqueduct which had a little variety of pay and mostly average sized fields and I came up with $130 to play every horse to show and $112.10 returned. Figured a quick example of what is probably about what you'd run into over the long haul. But, the easy answer to the question is it might work once in a while, but no, if that were a viable strategy there would be no other forms of gambling.

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

No.

You will lose the track takeout percentage in every race in which you wager every horse to Show.

and 3x breakage....

[barahona44]

Welcome to Pace Advantage, Jesse.Don't be a stranger.

Remember the only stupid question is the one you don't ask.

To me, the value of show betting is that it can help deal with the frustration of losing streaks as you can get some of your investment back until you hit the big score .I've also found value in harness racing show bets.For some reason, show bets on a harness horse will occasionally pay more than the place, not that frequently but enough times to make it interesting ( and not just the above referenced bridgejumpers) and certainly more often than the thoroughbreds.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Just for fun I did a quick run through the nine race card at Aqueduct which had a little variety of pay and mostly average sized fields and I came up with $130 to play every horse to show and $112.10 returned. Figured a quick example of what is probably about what you'd run into over the long haul. But, the easy answer to the question is it might work once in a while, but no, if that were a viable strategy there would be no other forms of gambling.

This made me curious (I can imagine the OP asking this next) so I took your numbers on today's card and said "what if" you dropped ONE betting entry in each race, say the biggest longshot.

Drops the play to $114...still not a profit...BUT you'd have lost 4 important payoffs.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

This made me curious (I can imagine the OP asking this next) so I took your numbers on today's card and said "what if" you dropped ONE betting entry in each race, say the biggest longshot.

Drops the play to $114...still not a profit...BUT you'd have lost 4 important payoffs.

I’m curious too. How about dropping the favorite?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by jessetr

Hi folks,

My first post. Hope this is a somewhat intelligent question:

If I bet to Show on a horse, and he comes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, then I collect.

Wouldn't it be safe and a winning bet to bet Show on all the horses? With the odds so low, I wouldn't be a millionaire, but wouldn't I stand to profit each time?

Thanks!

Sounds like a good idea, give it a shot and keep us posted with your results!

[HalvOnHorseracing]

If you want to play mechanically, think about this. If you bet the favorite in every race over the long run you'd be around a 9% loser. But, if you could eliminate 9 "false" favorites per 100 races, you could be at break even. Eliminate 15, you're a solid winner.

[davew]

It works on some races, the secret is figuring out what races to do it on.

There are also some days that you can bet every horse in every race to win, and make a nice profit for the day. Go check the results for Aqueduct today.

I knew a guy who would call the last day of the meet the 'getaway day'. He would bet every horse entry to WIN. Some days he would do well. His reasoning was that many stables would need cash for winter or to move to the next circuit.

[Red Knave]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Sounds like a good idea, give it a shot and keep us posted with your results!

Always willing to impart hard won knowledge to those who ask. It's humbling.
Noble, thoughtful and touching response to a newbie.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by jessetr

Hi folks,

My first post. Hope this is a somewhat intelligent question:

If I bet to Show on a horse, and he comes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, then I collect.

Wouldn't it be safe and a winning bet to bet Show on all the horses? With the odds so low, I wouldn't be a millionaire, but wouldn't I stand to profit each time?

Thanks!

Learning becomes much more effective when the student becomes an active participant.

To that end, start tracking this play on paper first. (Yes, some will say that even more effective learning comes from making actual bets, but I think tracking first will be better for your case). You do need to be careful though of declaring any type of play a success based on a small sample size, as it is not uncommon to find short, profitable periods for a play which is still unquestionably a losing one over the long-term. I suggest doing this paper study for 3-6 months as a starting point.

You may think this is too much work to do for a long time, so here is a piece of unsolicited advice. Your ability to become a successful handicapper will be greatly influenced by how hard you are willing to work.

BTW, my databases from years 2014-2016 show that betting the favorite in every race results in a loss of a little over 12%. I understand that one can become much more selective to make improvements on this -12%, but in my opinion, I see it as a very steep climb to get to breakeven, let alone above. That said, I am not here to prejudge your abilities to become one of the very rare exceptions.

Good luck and best wishes!

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Red Knave

Always willing to impart hard won knowledge to those who ask. It's humbling.
Noble, thoughtful and touching response to a newbie.

He's one of the brilliant ones around here also. Just ask him.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Just for fun I did a quick run through the nine race card at Aqueduct which had a little variety of pay and mostly average sized fields and I came up with $130 to play every horse to show and $112.10 returned. Figured a quick example of what is probably about what you'd run into over the long haul. But, the easy answer to the question is it might work once in a while, but no, if that were a viable strategy there would be no other forms of gambling.

Just for fun I did the same thing but only counted those at odds of 10-1 or higher, and I came back with 25 horses going off at 10-1 or higher and 8 of those hit the board for a bet of $50 and a return of $57.50.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

I’m curious too. How about dropping the favorite?

Still a loser since dropping fave in each race costs $114 and even with ALL horses the return is less than that...before you even start calculating the missed winners by dropping some bets.

I'm going to look at yesterday's SA results for fun...standby.