Got what it takes to be a PRO?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I'll put my "B" plays only, that way you'll have a chance..

No...that way you'll have an EXCUSE.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

No...that way you'll have an EXCUSE.

No....That way I won't be giving my best plays away for free...

[pondman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Make no mistake...almost all of those horseplayers who "do their own work" end up on the losing side too. Appearances are deceiving in this game...and this goes TRIPLE for the internet.

If a year-long handicapping contest were to take place on this board, where each entrant was asked to make, say, a thousand wagers...the results would be truly enlightening. But, as it stands right now...there is nothing to stop anyone here from declaring that "he is a winner", because he "does his own work".

We all know that the long-term winners in this game are rare...but I think it would SHOCK us to find out just how "rare" they really are.

I could double that amount in supers--at least 2,000 races. And...I could do it while only using horses in the 3rd and 4th legs, which would start out at as a 0.10- $1.20 straight unit (in 6 horse fields), cost more as the field size increased. The first two legs could be All, All. But I'd need more than 1 line. I'd need up to 4 lines or a $4.80 unit with 6 horse fields, increases with field size. Cost would start at $9,600. I'd expect to have 120 tickets pay more than $98, and 240 tickets would pay less than $98.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by sjk

As it turns out for the full year 2004 was the best year I ever had and last years results were better than average.

During the losing streak I averaged 3.7 combinations per race for what its worth.

You know I wasn't serious. Continued good luck!!

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by pondman

I could double that amount in supers--at least 2,000 races. And...I could do it while only using horses in the 3rd and 4th legs, which would start out at as a 0.10- $1.20 straight unit (in 6 horse fields), cost more as the field size increased. The first two legs could be All, All. But I'd need more than 1 line. I'd need up to 4 lines or a $4.80 unit with 6 horse fields, increases with field size. Cost would start at $9,600. I'd expect to have 120 tickets pay more than $98, and 240 tickets would pay less than $98.

You mean that you consider betting ALL X ALL for the top two spots in 6 horse field supers?

[NorCalGreg]

That math doesn't sound right--how many 6-horse field supers pay $98 for a $1 ticket....much less .10cent tickets?

[Lafecs]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

To estimate the expected losing streaks, find the closest figure to your win percentage in the "%W" column - the second column of the*average losing streak chart below. If you are near the closest value of14.3%....of which I am.....good luck.

Looking along this line and we see that our winners would have to average 6-to 1 odds just to break even and that the expected largest losing streak in a series of 1000 bets would be 34 losers in a row.

If I win 25% of my win bets (I don't--not even close-primarily I'm a longshot player)--but if I was..I would have to average an $8.00 mutual just to break even..and could expect a 20+ race losing streak, among many smaller-- at some time during the next 1,000 wagers. That's probably a year's total bets for a committed hobbyist.

Psychologically, it is difficult for the average horse player to endure a losing streak of 10 or more losers in a row.

Confining our attention to these large losing streaks...again, looking at the chart we see that in every 1000 bets there would be an average of 27 losing streaks of 10 or more losers in a row. Can that be correct? Yes it can.

So even if our average winner was paying over 8-to-1 odds and we were making a good profit, we would still be playing through a losing streak of 10 or more losers in a row much of the time. This is the Achilles' heel of most long shot horse racing betting systems.

This, ladies and gentlemen...is why so few of us horseplayers can win year in and year out. Humans aren't naturally hard-wired for this task. If you're one of the handful who can succeed in this game...you will have accomplished an extremely rare feat. You will get no kudos, no slaps on the back...your own family couldn't care less. Your enormous horse racing accomplishments will impress exactly no one.

It's the mental aspect that we can't overcome--not the actual handicapping.

Personally...I know for a fact---and I'm not boasting at all, I COULD get seriously dedicated to becoming a winning horseplayer--and do it. I just could never make a living this way.

The thing is--I don't want to. Every one of us is exactly who and where we have chosen to be. I could become extremely careful, diligent...grind out a profit. But I'm positive I would hate it---hate it like I hate doing income taxes.

*ps--when I say "we" ..I mean the average horseplayer on this board--fair to very good, but certainly not a "pro".

-NCG

chart from http://turfanalyst.com

Coming from someone who has actually attempted to go pro (and fell flat on his face), in my opinion the only way to beat the game is to A) be sure you have an advantage (obviously) and B) have a bankroll large enough to allow you to bet big enough when you spot an opportunity. The latter is usually what screws most people up. You need to have both of these things- and even then the swings and the pressure might make it not worth it. I can say with certainty that it isn't possible to make a living grinding out small time bets. It might be possible for a computer to do that algorithmically, but in my experience trying to "grind it out" goes completely against human nature over the long run (even with a legitimate edge). Thus for anyone who is serious about it, I would reccommend not even stepping in for a bet unless it is to win a meaningful amount of money to you.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I wonder how many so called pro's actually have access to inside information, but don't talk about it for obvious reasons.

Few if any. I know someone who paid jockeys and trainers for information and lost $400,000.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by pandy

Few if any. I know someone who paid jockeys and trainers for information and lost $400,000.

They mustve really been poor handicappers.

If many of us were told which horse would send, needs 1, will be rated , this one is on medicine circles or this horse is lame I would say our bottom line would have a positive impact. In many cases it just means pass the race.

Let me guess, he followed them blindly instead of just incorporating the info into a well thought out wager.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

They mustve really been poor handicappers.

If many of us were told which horse would send, needs 1, will be rated , this one is on medicine circles or this horse is lame I would say our bottom line would have a positive impact. In many cases it just means pass the race.

Let me.guess, he followed them blindly instead of just incorporating the info into a well thought out wager.

Yes, he followed them blindly, thinking that they controlled the game in New York and actually knew which horses were live. Not even close.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by pandy

Yes, he followed them blindly, thinking that they controlled the game in New York and actually knew which horses were live. Not even close.

and that my friend, is why I detest tips! Lol.

When someone touts me on steam, I dont want to listen unless its someone I respect and has been credible in the past. Even then, I trust my opinion more. Don't get me wrong. With FTS, layoff horses the info has some merit. Otherwise, let me be...

[HuggingTheRail]

Walk through the barn area at Hastings, and you'll have 6 winners in every race if you believe what you hear....probably not much different elsewhere

I find the info that a horse ISN'T sound etc, is more valuable than "my horse is ready, he's going to win, I've changed his meds, equipment, etc".

[green80]

the biggest bookmaker I know loved to book the trainers and jocks

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by pandy

Few if any. I know someone who paid jockeys and trainers for information and lost $400,000.

Originally Posted by pandy

Yes, he followed them blindly, thinking that they controlled the game in New York and actually knew which horses were live. Not even close.

If this guy is for real and is interested in recovering his losses, send me a PM with his contact information. I’ll be glad to help him out; for a commission of course.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Nitro

If this guy is for real and is interested in recovering his losses, send me a PM with his contact information. I’ll be glad to help him out; for a commission of course.

This was a long time ago. After that beating he decided to learn how to handicap. He is pretty well off now, and a very good handicapper.