annoying pool manipulation today at Parx

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

I agree - a big bettor at MNR likes to pull this move, too.

I am hoarse from BEGGING viewers to resist this manipulation and not knee-jerk too soon to the second likeliest winner.

[Tom]

To me, it is essential the NO BETS BE CANCELED at any time for any reason.
If you are not bright enough to make a bet correctly, you deserve to lose it.
There is no benefit to racing to allow cancellations, only ways to manipulate pools.

Only exception would be you see a teller punched a ticket incorrectly, but once you leave the window, suck to be you.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I am hoarse from BEGGING viewers to resist this manipulation and not knee-jerk too soon to the second likeliest winner.

Mountainman - You see it and understand it, and you are on the side of the player. Part of what makes you a Hall of Famer.


Yup, that is one of the ways it can play out. (overbetting the next opportunity, the public 2nd-choice)

And if the guy/gal/team happened to have an actual strong opinion that a clear public 2nd-choice was vulnerable that day, this manipulation would be even more effective. (there's a number of other similar types of angles or factors that also can compliment or detract from it).

Seems like everyone is perfectly fine with this legal pool manipulation, as long as it is not cancelling.


-I can totally see that. Fair enough . That's the rational viewpoint. Etc etc etc...

Have Never Seen such a rational clear-thinking bunch of hoss players ...

Seriously though, that rational viewpoint is 'correct' and objective.

Also a very dispassionate, clinical, remote perspective.

A popular psychological tendency known as "'Hot' vs. 'Cold' state"... You see, California and Florida are hot states and... More like if you are in the heat of the moment, your mind-state will naturally differ from when you are thinking about something. Especially true in something such as playing the ponies, where the action can have you 'on tilt', but it's possible to think of a wager like it was a math or logic problem.


I'm looking at this team like they are my RIVAL. That party is dictating to me what odds I can get, and they are changing the way that I have to play, and they are adding some knew elements to the whole megillah ...

And with the degree of influence that they happen to be exerting over the pools, it is basically fair to say that I am trying to scoop money from them... I'm trying to take their money.

Kinda puts a name-tag and a face to a usually less personal "The Public".

Pool manipulation is horrible for the game. This could be ugly if multiplied at a larger scale on a big stage.
A ruling must be handed down.

In the meantime I'll look to capitalize. Gives me a little more attention span and fire. I'm capable of bringing more info to the table and out-thinking the team. In addition the 'element of surprise' (the public not really knowing how the final odds will end up) also occasionally gives me an edge against the rest of The Public. I'll pass the vast majority of these, (as the basis is rebated dutching of perceived strong short-priced favorites,) but these patterns should give me the occasional overlay.

[JustRalph]

Amazing what has become of the game

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Seems like everyone is perfectly fine with this legal pool manipulation, as long as it is not cancelling.

.

If someone bets $20k to win with 10 MTP into a very small pool, it isn't manipulation. It shows up in the pool, and that horse becomes the prohibitive favorite. At that point, you can decide to take a stand against the horse OR take a really hard look at the horse, knowing he will most likely float up in odds until post time, OR pass. It becomes an expected-value exercise, not much different than most races.

[davew]

I am scratching my head and do not understand what you are saying happened Robert...

the 3 ML favorites were 1 at 9/2 , 7 at 5/1 and 8 at 2/1

someone bet $10K+ on 7 early, the late money went to 1 because 7 was always under even money (I find it interesting no extra late money went to 8)

7 wins and pays $4.60 and 1 gets 2nd - they both closed at 1.30 while 8 closed at 9.80 and got 5th. 3rd place was 4th lowest closing odds at 10.80


You have never seen this before?

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

If someone bets $20k to win with 10 MTP into a very small pool, it isn't manipulation. It shows up in the pool, and that horse becomes the prohibitive favorite. At that point, you can decide to take a stand against the horse OR take a really hard look at the horse, knowing he will most likely float up in odds until post time, OR pass. It becomes an expected-value exercise, not much different than most races.

And if I had already bet that horse and this huge bet lowered the odd on my horse from 9-2 to 3-5 I will cancel my bet as I don't want anything less than 5-2. If it is denied to anyone to cancel a bet that is wrong.

It's my money I'm betting.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by davew

I am scratching my head and do not understand what you are saying happened Robert

The gist =

1. A rebated party is screening for races where there is a strong favorite, AND a total of maybe 2-4 contenders with the bulk of the win probability.
2. Then they start in roughly the first flash by betting the Strong Fav to 1/9 in order to make the horse a 'prohibitive' favorite
3. then in the last flash, they are betting enough on the other 1-3 contenders in order to reach an acceptable 'dutch' situation

The effect = a prohibitive favorite situation where only the whale knows the ballpark estimate of the final odds for that favorite, and for the other contenders.

It completely dominates the pool.


That's it.


Now I don't know if I did a poor job of describing this to you and Mike, -- or if we just disagree on the impact, and the concern of this on a larger scale, -- but I've exhausted my interest and due diligence at this stage.

Someone want me to sit in on a board and run a study and blueprint a legislation? Properly compensate, and I'm sure I can recharge my batteries and really outline the framework much more thoroughly.

For now, I'll keep moving forward. Good luck today.

[highnote]

This used to happen all the time at NYRA tracks back in the 1990s when I was attending the live meetings every weekend. A horse would open at 3/5 which would keep others from backing it. Then it would slow drift up and get hammered back down. Then near the end of betting it would drift back up to 4/5 or evens. Nice score for the early bettors.

I heard it was Barry Schwartz and his betting partner. His partner might have been someone from Thorograph? It's been so long, I can't remember if I have those names correct. I believe it was Cary Fotias who told me. He was tuned in to NY racing back then. That was 25 years ago. The names might have changed since then, but the idea should still work.

[Gorrex]

Here is the chart on it.. looks to me like bet down early, some cancels then hammered again. Then at post the 1 and 4 get hit.

[Robert Fischer]

That graph is very cool.

Looks like the whale handicapped the race PERFECTLY, as it came in




I didn't notice/verify the late $$ on the (before seeing it illustrated in your chart), although I could see that the strategy in total was based on dutching at an acceptable rebated price.

Originally Posted by Gorrex

Here is the chart on it.. looks to me like bet down early, some cancels then hammered again. Then at post the 1 and 4 get hit.