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05-29-2017, 12:21 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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The Morning Line 2/1's are 9 out of 15 in Stakes races going 1 Mile or better over a wet Surface at Belmont going back to 2012
Although, since October 22nd 2016 they have been 0 for their last 3 in this situation
Let's see what C C Brown's entries do today in the 4th and 6th races provided that the 4th comes off the Turf and he doesn't scratch out of the race
4th race
#5 Fourstar
6th race
#11 Kathryn the Wise
Let's see what happens!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-29-2017 at 12:22 PM.
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05-29-2017, 01:01 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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not trying to burst your bubble but all you are doing is backfitting a subset of results to morning line odds. There is no sound basis that these same results will continue in the future or apply over a large sample of races.
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05-29-2017, 01:20 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
not trying to burst your bubble but all you are doing is backfitting a subset of results to morning line odds. There is no sound basis that these same results will continue in the future or apply over a large sample of races.
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Hey Green
I hear you, not trying to say that it will continue, but I just like to keep track of when they go hot and cold and to tell you the truth it's much better than I could have ever done handicapping over that time frame.
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-29-2017 at 01:28 PM.
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05-29-2017, 08:45 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
The Morning Line 2/1's are 9 out of 15 in Stakes races going 1 Mile or better over a wet Surface at Belmont going back to 2012
Although, since October 22nd 2016 they have been 0 for their last 3 in this situation
Let's see what C C Brown's entries do today in the 4th and 6th races provided that the 4th comes off the Turf and he doesn't scratch out of the race
4th race
#5 Fourstar
6th race
#11 Kathryn the Wise
Let's see what happens!!!
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Well although #5 Fourstar Crook won his race he will not qualify for the study as we were looking for Stakes races over a wet surface and the 4th race did not come off the Turf at Belmont today
We actually got one right with #11 Kathryn the Wise as she came through with a win today in her Stakes race over a wet surface she only paid $8.90 across the board but hey beggars can't be choosers!!!
This now makes 10 wins out of 16 attempts for the Morning Line 2/1's in Stakes races over a wet surface going 1 Mile or better at Belmont!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit
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05-29-2017, 08:55 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey N.C.
It seems C C Brown has 9 entered today but most of these will scratch as there has been quite a bit of rain in the Tri-State area today
Let's see which of these he leaves in to run today at Belmont!!!
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For those playing C C Brown's horses today the win returns were an accountants dream as you broke even playing all of his horses to win today at Belmont!!!
For those who were more conservative and played his horses across the board you got a 20% return on your money per $2 win, place and show wager!!!
Win and place was probably the way to go today with his horses as you picked up a 26% return per $2 win and place wager today!!!
C C Brown doesn't usually return a profit when he has horses entered in multiple Stakes races I guess there's a first time for everything!!!
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06-04-2017, 01:26 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Well #8 Big Handsome broke the pattern and gave us back to back wins in Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont for the Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 it is the first time this has happened since September 22nd 2016
It only paid $8 across the board but the way I've been going I will gladly take a 33% return on the day
So now, 18 of the last 21 have finished no worse than 2nd
Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Mott's woes snapped a two race win streak for the Morning Lines ending with 5 in Stakes races on the Turf
However, 19 of the last 22 have finished no worse than 2nd
You are still getting a 22% return for over a year in this situation
I will be keeping close tabs on this should it happen again during the course of the season at Belmont!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 06-04-2017 at 01:36 PM.
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06-08-2017, 01:01 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Mott's woes snapped a two race win streak for the Morning Lines ending with 5 in Stakes races on the Turf
However, 19 of the last 22 have finished no worse than 2nd
You are still getting a 22% return for over a year in this situation
I will be keeping close tabs on this should it happen again during the course of the season at Belmont!!!
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There is a Morning Line ending in 5 today in a Stakes race on the Turf in the 3rd race
3rd race
#7 New Money Honey
Let's see what happens maybe the Morning Line 5ers can get back on the winning streak on the Turf!!!
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06-08-2017, 11:55 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
There is a Morning Line ending in 5 today in a Stakes race on the Turf in the 3rd race
3rd race
#7 New Money Honey
Let's see what happens maybe the Morning Line 5ers can get back on the winning streak on the Turf!!!
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Well #7 New Money Honey came through with a win hopefully there will be a few more wins on the way with the Morning Line 5ers in Stakes races on the Turf!!!
This now makes 20 of the last 23 finishing no worse than 2nd and you are getting a 30% return per $2 win wager in this situation!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 06-08-2017 at 11:57 PM.
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06-09-2017, 12:03 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Well #7 New Money Honey came through with a win hopefully there will be a few more wins on the way with the Morning Line 5ers in Stakes races on the Turf!!!
This now makes 20 of the last 23 finishing no worse than 2nd and you are getting a 30% return per $2 win wager in this situation!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Interesting to note, C C Brown has 9 out of the 15 wins in this situation his horses have only lost twice
You are getting a 65% return per $2 win wager for this situation not too shabby for some favorites!!!
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06-10-2017, 09:26 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Interesting to note, C C Brown has 9 out of the 15 wins in this situation his horses have only lost twice
You are getting a 65% return per $2 win wager for this situation not too shabby for some favorites!!!
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Let's see if C C Brown can continue his streak of Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 winning on the Turf at Belmont going 1 Mile or better
So far, he has a win streak of 3 in a row and 9 of the last 11 have won for him in this situation!!!
He has this today in the 8th race:
8th race
#2 Roca Rojo
Let's see if he can extend the streak to 4 in a row today at Belmont!!!
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06-13-2017, 08:56 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Let's see if C C Brown can continue his streak of Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 winning on the Turf at Belmont going 1 Mile or better
So far, he has a win streak of 3 in a row and 9 of the last 11 have won for him in this situation!!!
He has this today in the 8th race:
8th race
#2 Roca Rojo
Let's see if he can extend the streak to 4 in a row today at Belmont!!!
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Well #2 Roca Rojo was off the board at Belmont last Saturday snapping a streak of 4 wins in a row for C C Brown's Morning Line Favorites ending with 5 going 1 Mile or better on the Turf in Stakes races
It also snapped a streak of 11 in a row hitting the board for this situation
He had 12 horses entered on Saturday 10 of them in Stakes races of which only 4 managed to hit the board, but hey, he got his 1 million plus dollars in purse money earned so I guess it's okay
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06-14-2017, 11:22 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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The Morning Line 2/1's in Maiden races on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better have been winning at a rate of 47% at Belmont going back to May 1st 2016
You are getting a 39% return per $2 win wager in this situation
When you look at the Maiden Claiming races for the Morning Line 2/1's they are even more impressive
So far, they have won 5 of their last 6 races and you are getting a 168% return per $2 win wager in Maiden Claiming races on the Dirt at 1 Mile or better
Let's keep an eye on this situation at Belmont!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 06-14-2017 at 11:24 PM.
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06-14-2017, 11:32 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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The Morning Line 5/2's have been on a tear over the past 3 racing days at Belmont they have won 11 out of their last 18 races
I spotted it on June 10th and was sure it would have dissolved by today but I was wrong as the Morning Line 5/2's won 4 of their 6 races today
I just didn't think it would happen only 4 horses paid under $8 today and the Morning Line 5/2's had 3 of the 4
I am not sure what they will do tomorrow but I will be paying attention to them especially at Distances of 1 Mile or better!!!
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06-15-2017, 10:09 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
The Morning Line 2/1's in Maiden races on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better have been winning at a rate of 47% at Belmont going back to May 1st 2016
You are getting a 39% return per $2 win wager in this situation
When you look at the Maiden Claiming races for the Morning Line 2/1's they are even more impressive
So far, they have won 5 of their last 6 races and you are getting a 168% return per $2 win wager in Maiden Claiming races on the Dirt at 1 Mile or better
Let's keep an eye on this situation at Belmont!!!
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It seems that back to back wins are usually followed by a loss for the Morning Line 2/1 Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont going 1 Mile or better
Let's see what happens today as there is a Morning Line 2/1 Maiden in the 6th race today at Belmont on the Dirt going at 1 Mile
6th race
#1 Pirates Treasure
Let's see what happens!!!
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06-15-2017, 11:00 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
The Morning Line 5/2's have been on a tear over the past 3 racing days at Belmont they have won 11 out of their last 18 races
I spotted it on June 10th and was sure it would have dissolved by today but I was wrong as the Morning Line 5/2's won 4 of their 6 races today
I just didn't think it would happen only 4 horses paid under $8 today and the Morning Line 5/2's had 3 of the 4
I am not sure what they will do tomorrow but I will be paying attention to them especially at Distances of 1 Mile or better!!!
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Here are the Morning Line 5/2's entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better at Belmont today
4th race
#4 Kitty Maddnes
6th race
#6 Sicilia Mike
Let's see if one of these can get the win today at Belmont!!!
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