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Old 11-20-2017, 09:05 PM   #1
Teach
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,032
Aqueduct: Wednesday, November 22

Race One:

1 POSHKY needed his last after a 3-month “vacation”. A complete turn-around is also needed if this 7-year old is to be competitive; he was recently “short” against weaker. Trainer Charley Baker does well with 2nd starts off a layoff. Seven-pound weight-allowance for the up-and-coming “bug,” Luis Reyes. Would be a surprise.

SOUPERFAST should get a lot of attention at the windows and on the ADWs. This highly-priced, lightly-raced gelding was a game, head-bobbing winner of an October 13th 9-panels turf-race at Belmont. He was claimed out of that one by the Hall-of-Fame trainer from “The Streets of Laredo,” Steve Asmussen. Asmussen does very well with claim repeaters. Angel Arroyo reprises the ride. Very much a player in current good form.

3 ROCKFORD may well be the proverbial “fish out of water”. Most of this gelding’s races have been run on the dirt. In addition, he seems more adapted to sprinting than routing. Yes, he did win once on the turf. However, this gelding appears to be ill-suited for the conditions of this race. If, for some reason, this race comes off the turf, this gelding moves up. Looks like an also-ran.

TIZNOBLE has been facing weaker in recent tries. This Tiznow-bred colt is coming back on short rest (generally, I’m not enamored with that). Yet this colt does have a very good turf record. The colt’s trainer, Ed Barker, does well with horses making their first start off a claim. Could, at his best, complete an exotic.

TUSK is another horse coming back on short rest. This gelding appears to have needed his last after a nearly 2-month layoff. This 4-year old’s trainer, Rudy Rodriguez, is having an excellent “Big A” meet. There’s also a rider switch to Jose Ortiz. This gelding should definitely “get the distance”; yet Ortiz will have to get this grey gelding in the game early as he appears to want to go longer. Appears to be “in the mix”. Should not be ignored.

LEWIS VALE has been as game as they come against weaker in recent races. This Flower Alley-bred was a game winner in his last. Prior to that, he was narrowly nipped by Souperfast. Look for Jose Lezcano to have this chestnut gelding out and going from the start. It will then be up to the Panamanian-born jockey to ration out this gelding’s speed. David Jacobson – he recently claimed this horse – does very well with claim repeaters. Stepping up in company, yet should be right there at the wire. May be best.

Race Two:

OURO VERDE was3rdin her last, yet with excuses. This filly was brushed slightly at the start of her most recent race by the horse to her immediate inside. In the stretch, this 3-year old was somewhat impeded (an almost imperceptible check) in her stretch drive that was caused by the horse in front of her, the 2nd place finisher, Christmas Sky, drifting out. This David Donk trainee showed good energy. Jose Ortiz is in the irons. A Player.

2 CATANIA ROSE has shown very little in recent tries against somewhat better claiming company. Hard to recommend.

3 CLAUDIA’S ROSE is another filly who has shown nothing in eight pari-mutuel starts. Hitting the board would be a complete surprise.

DERVAL has hit the tote in half her tries. Yet, she showed little in the race that Ouro Verde finished 3rd. I have trouble recommending this Dave Cannizzo-trained filly; yet she might just complete an exotic.

5 VERONA BLUE has shown very little in her 14 pari-mutuel races. I don’t see much change. She might get the first call, but has then rapidly faded in most of her races. For this filly to get 4th in a superfecta wager wouldn’t be totally out of the question, but she’s likely an also-ran.

SEAM would appear to be “The Horse”. She finished 3rd in her last as a 9/5 shot at one mile; she now cuts back two panels. Any moisture on the racetrack would move her up even further. Yet, one caveat: this filly has been a “money-burner”; 0 for 4 as “the chalk. She should be out and going and sitting on a stalk-and-pounce trip. Manny Franco reprises for Ray Handal. “The Horse”.

MATINEE BABE has shown little in recent tries on the turf. Yet, she is back on the main and dropping two levels. I wouldn’t completely rule her out, but unless there’s moisture on the racetrack (there is a possibility from Wednesday morning rains), I don’t see her as a major win threat. Can be part, especially with wet surface.

Race Three:

DISCREET SENIORITA has been an enigma. Early in this mare’s career, she was winning races left and right. This mare was then given a year’s vacation; yet she picked up right where she left off as she resumed racing in 2017. However, recently she has tailed off on both the dirt and turf. I find this mare hard to recommend as a win candidate, yet to hit the board and complete an exotic.

LITTLE MISS BUSINESS was 3rd in this company in her last. This Touch Gold-bred filly would appear to want to go a tad longer. Yet I certainly see this 4-year old as a factor here. That feeling is amplified by a recent “bullet” work. Strong chance of hitting the tote.

ROYAL INHERITANCE threw in a clunker in her last when she got caught up in a speed duel. I believe this chestnut filly is ready to make amends. I see her as having a strong chance of gracing the tote. Frankly, she done her best racing against state-bred competition; not quite as well against today’s open competition. Can certainly be part.

4 TEAM OF TEAMS appears to more of a turf horse, although she does have one win on an AW surface. Of the five horses entered in this OC sprint, I’m giving her the least attention. This filly might complete an exotic, but I find it hard to recommend as a potential win candidate. Complete an exotic?

FRIEND OF LIBERTY has been racing at extreme levels:Grade IIStakes company and lower-level claimers. This Michelle Nevin trainee could be tested for class here. Yet, she would appear to move up if there’s any moisture on the racetrack. Johnny V. in the irons. I wouldn’t rule her out. Watch the board.

Race Four:

1/1A ELEVENSES/GREAT REWARD, two first-time starters;theydo not figure in my wagering plans. I would be surprised if either half hit the board.

2 GIBSON GIRL is another filly that I don’t see hitting the tote. Bill Mott, a Hall of Fame trainer, does not do particularly well with turf debuts or first-time starters. I see little chance of hitting tote.

TAP TAP TAPAROO. Now, this is another story. This 2-year old chestnut filly broke last in her only race. I mean a city-block last against slightly better MSW company. Well, she was pickin ‘em up and layin’ ‘em down as field turned into the stretch. In fact, the filly was coming on like Citation (he collared Coaltown) in the 1948 Kentucky Derby on a rainy day in Louisville. Anything. I repeat: anything resembling that only pari-mutuel start and it’s picture-taking time.

HONORED PROMISE has some solid turf pedigree, both “top” and “bottom”. I would consider her in your exotics.

5 NEVISIAN SPIRIT. The turf pedigree is mediocre. Yet when you see the names Chad Brown and Javier Castellano, you sit up and take notice. I don’t see her as a win-candidate.

NO DEAL was 2nd a neck at seven panels in MSW company in her last. She has been away from the races for over a month and a half. Phil Serpe trains. Decent chance of hitting the tote.

7 MAGNATO GO. I don’t see much hope for this horse.

8 THEA AFRODITI is another horse I can’t get excited about. Remote chance of hitting tote.

GLOSSY was in contention in the aforementioned Tap Tap Taparoo race at Belmont on October 28. Yet she seemed to run out of steam in mid-stretch; she ended up finishing a tiring 5th. If there’s improvement, she might complete an exotic.

Race Five:

SCARF IT DOWN was narrowly 2nd in this company in his last. In his current sharp form, this gelding looks like the horse to beat. Jeremiah Englehart trains (he does well with dirt starts); Jose Ortiz is in the irons. Top Pick.

KINGKOA may get tested for class here. Yet this Silver Deputy-bred gelding has finished 2nd in his last two. Jose Lezcano in the irons for Corby Caiazzo. May possibly complete an exotic.

. MISTER HENRY LEE has just one win under his belt in nine tries. Most of his races have been against lesser company at Monmouth and Parx. His only win came at this 8-panels distance at an MSW at Monmouth in early July. Possible board-hitter.

4 NUTSFORBOLTZ looks more like a turf horse than a main-track campaigner. I have question marks about this Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker)-bred (think American Pharoah). He would appear to be outclassed here. Possibly able to pick up the pieces in a superfecta.

SHADOW RIDER has been competing very well in this 50k allowance company. This bay gelding has hit the tote in six straight, nine out of ten. Might be good 2nd and 3rd key in part-wheeled tri or super.

Race Six:

PAUSEFORTHECAUSE looks like she prefers sprints than today’s 8-panels OC, n1x on the grass. That’s not to say she may not get part with the services of Joe Bravo and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Can she carry her speed for one mile?

2 ONE LAST CAST looks like a rank outsider here. Another filly for which the 8-panels distance may be daunting. A bridge too far?

PURELY LUCKY can “get the distance”. Yet, she just broke her maiden in her last; she now moves up in company. This Lookin At Lucky-bred bay filly is certainly a contender.

4 BIRTHDAY GIFT won her last as an 88.5 to 1 shot. That was a sprint, this is a route. I don’t see this Hat Trick-bred gracing the tote board. Little to recommend in today’s route.

ENGLISH SOUL is – make no mistake - a contender. This English Channel-bred chestnut filly may well have been overmatched in a non-graded New York state-bred race. She’s now in with the kind with whom she can compete.

SARATOGA TREASURE wants to go longer off her 4th place finish at six panels. Well she now stretches out two furlongs. I believe that added real estate makes this Jim Ryerson trainee a factor here.

7 RAPID ROUTE is the horse to watch if, by some chance, the morning “Big Apple” rains take this race off the turf and onto the main. If that happens, this filly moves way up on the dirt.

8 MISS JEN is another horse who will benefit the race comes off the turf and is run on the dirt. She definitely moves up on a sloppy surface.

Race Seven:

STREET REVIEW appears better suited for the lawn than the main. I give this Street Cry-bred gelding a remote chance of hitting the board.

POLAR CITY now switches to the main after four tries on the grass. This change of surface may do wonders. So too will the services of trainer Linda Rice and jockey Jose Ortiz. Rice does very well: 2nd start with trainer. This gelding would move up on a wet surface. A solid chance.

ONE MORE ROUND was eased in his last start, a 30k claimer at “The Spa”. Frankly, I’m concerned by the lengthy delay in getting back to the races, nearly three months. Yet, if he’s ready, he can tower over this field. The morning works are mediocre. Is he ready?

4 AUTHOR appears to be a rank outsider.

5 SHIDOSHI looks like he may have trouble “getting the distance”. Looks better suited for sprints.

6 Mr. SULTANA has shown little in two dirt races. I don’t expect much.

ALPHA TEAM drops down the claiming ladder. His trainer-owner, David Jacobson, does very well with horses making their 2nd start after a claim. I believe there’s a definite shot of hitting tote.

Race Eight:

ASTOUNDING won out lifetime conditions in his last. If this Jason Servis-trained ridgling can reprise that recent winning effort, he’s most definitely a player.

NOT IN CHARGE has been in top-notch form. His trainer, Alan Goldberg, does extremely well with horses making their third start off a layoff. He’s definitely in the mix.

3 ALTAR BOY was a disappointment at the 5-to-2 favorite in 32k company. Make no mistake, this bay gelding can get the distance. I think he’s viable. Kendrick Carmouche reprises the ride for trainer Mike Maker. He’s a possible board-hitter.

SHAHROZE is an Irish-bred who won at first asking at Belmont about one month ago. This Graham Motion trainee is getting Lasix for the first time. Javier Castellano is in the irons. I consider this bay gelding the horse to beat.

5 BOW TIE AFFAIR has been running in this claiming company without much success. I consider this Lemon Drop Kid-bred a rank outsider.

6 IGGY LOCO has done well in PA state-bred company, but may well be outclassed here. I wouldn’t rule Apalachee-bred out completely, yet I see him, at best, picking up the pieces in an exotic.

FOCUS GROUP is most definitely a factor. This Kitten’s Joy-bred is dropping here, He has the services of trainer Chad Brown and jockey Jose Ortiz. In my opinion, this 3-year old is most definitely in the mix.

8 CHARMING INDY is an MTO who, if he draws in because the race is taken off the turf, will be a considerable factor on the main.

Race Nine:

1 MAST STEP looks overmatched at the one-mile distance in this turf route. Hard to recommend.

SARATOGA COLONEL was repeatedly checked in his last at Belmont. I believe a cleaner trip puts this Colonel John-bred gelding in the thick of things. He may well take it all.

3 LUZINSKI appears to be a rank outsider.

4 RUN FOR BOSTON is a player. He’s capable, at his best of hitting the tote.

5 MINUS TWO put in a good effort in his last; he’s capable of completing an exotic.

FROST PROOF is another horse who’s been competitive at this level. This gelding is capable of picking up the pieces.

7 FLEET ADMIRAL would appear to be overmatched here.

GIVETHEMAN A CIGAR is most definitely a player. This Freud-bred narrowly missed winning in this company, albeit on the main. If Jose Ortiz can work out the right trip, this bay gelding can be there at the wire.

GRAND VALOUR is another horse who fits well in this field. This Sky Mesa-bred got caught 6-wide in his last. A less troubled trip would put this gelding in the mix.

10 VICTORY’S CASH does not appear to be a factor here.

11 RUMBLES OF THUNDER, an MTO, could be a player if the race is taken off the turf.He’s a factor on the dirt.
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Walt (Teach)

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