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03-01-2014, 05:23 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: route 66
Posts: 1,112
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A former thoroughbred trainer took me under his wing. I then worked my ass off to translate his expert knowledge into my own field of expertise. That provided a considerable edge, but it still wouldn't have been enough without learning to program in excel. So... the blessing of a mentor, hard work, and the gift of excel.
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03-01-2014, 06:25 PM
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#62
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dark Horse
A former thoroughbred trainer took me under his wing. I then worked my ass off to translate his expert knowledge into my own field of expertise. That provided a considerable edge, but it still wouldn't have been enough without learning to program in excel. So... the blessing of a mentor, hard work, and the gift of excel.
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Ditto that, for me, but change "former thoroughbred trainer" to "very intelligent, disciplined gambler".
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03-01-2014, 07:11 PM
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#63
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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"These people don't know how to read the Racing Form! You have to read between the lines..." - my father
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-01-2014, 08:46 PM
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#64
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Educated Speculation
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Where Palm Trees Sway
Posts: 914
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by burnsy
This is something I've said on here many times and it is so true. Anyone that says a horse is a "sure thing", the greatest or can't lose...is not a gambler. A good gambler already understands he will lose many times and can handle it. I'm repeating what others have already said in a way. Information is best when no one else has it or agrees with it..you are in a pool vs. everyone else. When people tout the chalky, chalk or the next super star or the clearly obvious horses and info..chances are its worthless. As for people that don't know, don't talk....it's not entirely true either....most people don't listen anyway. Most people are not cut out to be gamblers they follow the "crowd" or the "popular rhetoric" being reported as gospel. The best advice I got was many moons ago.....in the 6th grade I had a brilliant teacher that taught me to NEVER take things at face value, by what's being "reported" or by what others are saying...ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND LEARN HOW TO FORM YOUR OWN OPINION. That's a key and I do know what I'm doing, I'm telling it and it goes over most peoples heads. Good gamblers will tell you all of this....but I've found that so many people won't listen or just don't get it and never will. If you can't think rationally, objectively and independently, plus take the "body blows of losing", you'll just be another person that never wins at any form of gambling. I gave out so many football winners by thinking for myself....watch how many people quote the jug heads on ESPN..they ARE NOT gamblers.
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Thank you Burnsy. I absolutely agree. I'm glad I had a random encounter with an elder Horseplayer back in 86 telling me the four cardinal rules of betting on horses and most importantly the final rule: "That's why they call it gambling". It's helped me ride through series of losses on my way series of winners. 
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03-01-2014, 10:02 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Location: OKC, OK
Posts: 609
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Play what you know!
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03-02-2014, 01:02 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Read a horse's form from the bottom up, and draw yourself a detailed portrait.
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03-02-2014, 02:34 PM
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#67
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mountainman
Read a horse's form from the bottom up, and draw yourself a detailed portrait.
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Excellent advice, and exactly what I do!
It allows you to see individual form cycle progressions as well as trainer patterns versus days off, works, distance changes, class changes, surface changes, etc.. This allows me to assign each horse an "earnings" or "conditioning" label, telling me if the horse is in the race to win/make money, or, if it is being prepared for the future and not expected to compete today.
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03-04-2014, 08:30 AM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: route 66
Posts: 1,112
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Identify the positive playing fields first, by scanning the card for favorites that can be tossed out. Then go to the detail of the races that qualify. Not the other way around. The public looks for reasons to bet ON horses (or teams). Pros look to fade first, because whatever can be faded helps flip a negative playing field into a positive one. The alternative is to try to squeeze value out of negative playing fields; a losing proposition by definition.
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03-04-2014, 05:33 PM
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#69
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dark Horse
Identify the positive playing fields first, by scanning the card for favorites that can be tossed out. Then go to the detail of the races that qualify. Not the other way around. The public looks for reasons to bet ON horses (or teams). Pros look to fade first, because whatever can be faded helps flip a negative playing field into a positive one. The alternative is to try to squeeze value out of negative playing fields; a losing proposition by definition.
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This gets my vote for best post of the quarter, FWIW.  A negative playing field is around half the races today.
This also helps explain why sports betting is tiddlywinks compared to racing.
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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03-04-2014, 08:55 PM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Location: OKC, OK
Posts: 609
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Four more that come to mind:
1) Don't talk anybody off a longshot.
2) Don't listen to ANYBODY!
3) Make three prime bets for the day. If the first one hits, fold it up and go home.
4) You gotta know when to pull the trigger.
The last is probably the most important one...
Last edited by Bullet Plane; 03-04-2014 at 08:57 PM.
Reason: redo
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03-05-2014, 12:28 AM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,692
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
"These people don't know how to read the Racing Form! You have to read between the lines..." - my father
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03-05-2014, 12:51 AM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bullet Plane
2) Don't listen to ANYBODY!
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"Ears" can be your worst enemy at a race track - for both 'pickin' and 'bettin.'
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03-05-2014, 12:13 PM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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One more:
"Neither a borrower nor a lender be" - Polonius in Hamlet
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03-05-2014, 12:47 PM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 955
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" Sometimes your best number is your 2nd one "
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03-05-2014, 01:17 PM
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#75
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Nobody told me this. I had to figure it out myself. But I give it out anyway because it is so true. Never ever tell anybody about a horse you think is a cinch. Nothing good can happen form sharing. And never tell any non gamblers how much you won or lost. They will want you to buy dinner either way.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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