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Old 11-05-2019, 08:41 AM   #1
Teach
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Patriots vs. Eagles: Week 1, Sunday, November 17

Although we are several days away from the Week 11 match-up – both teams have byes in Week 10 – between the Patriots and Eagles, I was curious as to what the point-spread would be. My initial “guess” was Patriots (+4).

In any event, I saw that a New Jersey-based online sports betting site has installed the Eagles as 1-point underdogs, or Patriots -1 at -120 (basically, a “pick-em” game).

My thought: Patriots +4 was based on my belief that the odds-makers would take into account the fact that Patriots coach Bill Belichick is a master at making adjustments after a Patriots loss (he has two weeks to do that). Personally, I’m not so sure all that is possible.

As I’ve cited, the way the 2019 NFL schedule was set up, the Patriots were given opponents that allowed, in the first half of the season, for “a Sunday walk in the park.” Now, in the second half of the season, the terrain has suddenly become “steep.” There are very few “bunnies,” with the possible exception of Cincinnati, and I’m not sure that won’t be a competitive game.

The Ravens game exposed all the Patriots’ “warts”. Principally, the offensive and defensive lines. The Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb gave us an indication. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram, Jr. added an exclamation point.

Further, the Eagles are at home at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles are riding a 2-game win-streak. Their post-season playoff hopes are very much alive. There is definitely motivation. The Eagles players will be “pumped.” Will the Eagles’ fans and players, i.e., Lane Johnson in 2017, be wearing “dog masks”?

The Patriots hadn’t had to come from behind (the Redskins scored first) after the 1st quarter until this past Sunday’s Ravens game. The Patriots couldn’t do it against the Ravens. What if the Eagles jump out on top? I ask: “Do the Patriots have the kind of team that can come from behind?”

Finally, the Patriots defense was on the field for an interminably long period of time in the Ravens game. By the 2nd half, the Patriots defense was feeling the effects. Will that scenario repeat itself? Will Carson Wentz and the Eagles play “ball control?”

I’ll have other posts on this game during the week and into the following week leading up to game. Until then…
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:49 AM   #2
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The last I looked, the line on the Patriots vs. Eagles game, a-week-and-half away on Sunday, November 17, has moved slightly to Patriots (-3).

Yet, I believe the jury is still out. However, I must state, at this juncture, although I’m a long-time Patriots fan, I’m leaning in the direction of a Philadelphia Eagles.

May it please the sports-betting public: I’ll now present my rationale “brief” for an Eagles victory (I’ll do the same for the Patriots later in the week).
I’ll begin by saying that I’ve watched most of the Eagles highlights during the 2019 NFL season.

In a nutshell, I would classify the Eagles as a “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” kinda team. Sometimes, the Eagles have looked like world-beaters, i.e., they destroyed the Jets in the opening game of the season (In hindsight, I suppose that’s not saying much). Yet they’ve also looked like “patsies,” particularly against their division rival, the Cowboys. In their favor, I will say this, the Eagles have looked better in recent games.

Make no mistake, this is a key NFL matchup, particularly for the Eagles, but also for the Patriots. For the Eagles the road to the playoffs may mean they must win the National Football Conference’s NFC East. The Eagles have two tough, must-win games ahead of them, first the Patriots and then the Seattle Seahawks. No easy task. The Eagles do have a rematch with the Cowboys late in the season, but that game will be meaningless if the Eagles can’t extend their win skein.

It is at this juncture I ask: “What are the keys for an Eagles victory over the Patriots?” First and foremost, Eagles quarterback, Carson Wentz, the North Dakota State product (remember the Patriots Steve Nelson) is major factor. He’s not the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, but he can run, if necessary. In fact, I’d label the 6-foot-5 inches Wentz as “an athlete”. He certainly can “gun” the football. Yet I will say that he doesn’t have the quickest release. In fact, he’s had some of his passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage (in one case, he had to break up a possible interception, himself).

One of Wentz’s major “weapons” is Zach Ertz. Ertz is good. Very good. In fact, I would put him at the top of receiving tight ends. Ertz is Wentz’s “go-to” guy in Eagles short-yardage passing situations. Oh, the Eagles have other weapons. In the running department there’s Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders (Sanders can also catch the football).

Defensively, the Eagles can be tough. Their defensive front has put lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I wouldn’t rate their defensive secondary quite as highly.

If there is a major weakness, it may well be in Eagles special-teams play. There have been miscues.

Yet, the Eagles are playing at home at “The Linc.” They are formidable there. They’ve won all but one game at home, that loss coming against the Detroit Lions. It’s a game that they should have won. In that game, in the 2nd week of the season, the Eagles, late in the game, blocked a Lions’ field goal attempt. After the run-back, the Eagles appeared to have the ball inside the Lions 25-yead line with 1:40 to go; but they were called for a penalty that moved the ball back near the mid-field stripe (out of field goal range).

After two plays Wentz appears to have connected with Darren Sproles along the sideline, but Sproles was whistled for offensive pass interference. That’s all they wrote.

Finally, at least psychologically, as far as the Patriots are concerned, “The bloom is off the rose.” The undefeated-season mystique has gone by the boards. Some upcoming opponents, like sharks, are beginning to “smell blood in the water”. They see vulnerabilities. There is no invincibility. The Patriots have been taken down a peg or two.

In conclusion, the Eagles may do some of the same things the Ravens did. See Howard and Sanders run. “Run, run, run.” See Ertz catch. “Catch, catch, catch.” See the Eagles blitz. “Blitz, blitz, blitz.” Hey, much of this worked for Ravens, why not the Eagles. And, I posit: “If the Eagles can get out to an early lead, do the Patriots have the kind of team that can come from behind?” I have my doubts.
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:25 AM   #3
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Bill Bellichik does not get bitch slapped two weeks in a row.If the number's less than 7 ,take it.

Everybody always looks for the Patriots to fall apart and they rarely do.I believe they will reach a tipping point in a couple of years-they're one of the oldest teams in the leauge,even if you exclude Tom Brady and they're bound to have a mediocre stretch while they reconstruct.As long as Bellichik is in charge of preparation and personnel, this team will be relevant.

Not a fan of the Pats incidentally in case you thought this was a Bellichik infomercial.

Because even in ordinary daily activities, Bellichik doesn't overlook any detail.

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Old 11-06-2019, 06:15 PM   #4
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When it comes to the New England Patriots vs. the Philadelphia Eagles game on Sunday, November 17, the question remains: “Was the Patriots loss to the Baltimore Ravens an aberration, or was a harbinger of things to come?” Put another way: “Was the Patriots loss just a glitch? A hiccup? Or did the Patriots loss reveal some nasty cracks in a previously unbeaten team?” If I knew the answer to that question, I would be certain to know whom to wager on in the Patriots vs. Eagles match-up.

All I know is that Patriots coach Bill Belichick is a master at making adjustments. He and his coaching staff have two weeks to get the Patriots’ ship “righted.”

Yet, another gnawing question I have is: “Was it the schedule that allowed the Patriots to get off to such an excellent start, or was it the Patriots personnel and coaching staff that propelled the Patriots to the undefeated start the first half of the season? Or, was it a combination of both?”

I believe that the Patriots, maybe with the exception of the Buffalo Bills game, hadn’t met anybody, up to this past Sunday’s game, with the overall team skills and coaching staff abilities that the Baltimore Ravens brought to the table.

Another question I have is: “Does Tom Brady have the supporting cast he needs to take the Patriots to the Super Bowl. Frankly, I have my doubts. Further, the Patriots run-game against the Ravens was “nothing to write home about.” The Patriots averaged about 4.2 yards per carry on 17 carries for 72 yards. The offense was overwhelmingly pass-oriented with Brady completing 30 passes on 46 attempts. Brady threw for 1 TD; he had 1 pass intercepted. The pass-run ratio was nearly 3-to-1 in favor of passing. That is not enough of a mix to keep defenses “honest.”

I thought the “shining moments” for the Patriots was when they went to the “hurry-up” offense. That approach had the Ravens back on their heels.

Yet, I’m still amazed at the ball-handling skills of Ravens quarterback, Lamar Jackson. I referred to him in a previous post as the “Prestidigitator,” for good reason. I don’t believe the Patriots will face anyone like him during the rest of the regular season.

As for the Patriots, I thought another “bright light” was the play of the newly-acquired Mohamed Sanu. Sanu had 10 catches for 81 yards and 1 TD.

One thing the Patriots can’t allow happen against Philadelphia that occurred in the Baltimore game was an unbalanced time of possession. The Ravens: 37.01, the Patriots: 22:59. The Patriots defense was on the field for an inordinately lengthy period of time. They wore down in the 2nd half. If the Eagles can keep Tom Brady and the Patriots offense off the field with lengthy drives, the result can be similar to what happened in Baltimore.

Finally, uncharacteristically, the Patriots made too many mistakes. It all began with an offside down at the 5-yard line on a field goal attempt; it resulted in 7 points instead of just 3. That mental mistake set a bad tone. In fact, the Patriots were down 10-0 at the end of the 1st quarter; they did well to claw their way back into the game. But it just wasn’t enough.

Again, was this just an aberration, an out-of-character Patriots loss, or was there more to this than just throwing in “a clunker?”
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Old 11-07-2019, 07:08 AM   #5
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As the Patriots and Eagles prepare for their week 11 match up, let’s look, statistically, as to how the two teams have fared thus far, offensively. The information is courtesy of “TeamRankings.”

In points scored per game, the Patriots rank 2nd to the team that defeated them last week, the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots have averaged 30 points per game. Meanwhile, the Eagles rank 14th at just less than 25 points per game. Yet, the Eagles do score better at home at “The Linc.”

When it comes to scoring by period, the Patriots are most definitely a “1st quarter team.” They lead the NFL in points scored in the opening panel. The Patriots have scored an average of just less than 10 first-quarter points per game. Interestingly, and uncharacteristically, the Patriots got off to a poor start in their loss to Baltimore; they didn’t score any 1st quarter points.

Conversely, the Eagles are “slow starters.” They’ve scored an average of just a little over 4 first-quarter points per game. If the Eagles have a favorite quarter, it the 3rd. They rank 3rd behind San Francisco and the LA Rams with just shy of 8 third-quarter points per game. Further, by halves, the Patriots are definitely a better 1st half team; the Eagles are slightly better than the Patriots in the 2nd half.

In the category of yards per game, the Patriots are somewhat better than the Eagles. Yet, in the last three games the Patriots have fallen off markedly. The Patriots are nowhere near as productive as they were last year when New England averaged over 400 yards per game.

In plays per game, the Patriots rank second only to the Ravens. In that category, the Patriots hold a slight edge over the Eagles. Yet, in the category of yards per play, both the Patriots and the Eagles are in the lower tier; they both average 5.2 yards per play.

One category in which the Eagles hold a distinct advantage is 3rd down conversions. The Eagles lead the NFL with 6.7 3rd down conversions per game; the Patriots, on the other hand, rank 7th with 5.8. In 4th down conversions the Eagles rank 8th, the Patriots rank 24th.

In time of possession there is little to choose from between the two teams. The Patriots rank 4th with 32.58; the Eagles rank 5th with 32.13.

Finally, both the Patriots and Eagles do not rank well in 1st down plays. The Patriots are 19th with 0.312. The Eagles are 21st with .0309.

I’ll provide some defensive stats, later.
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Old 11-07-2019, 01:56 PM   #6
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I don't know who will win.

They look vaguely 'evenly-matched'.

Seems to be some value in that the Eagles are better than their won-loss record makes them appear, - but I already capitalized on that with picking them to cover in the Bills game... Last-time-was-the-time...

Also have to respect the Patriots. It's not like it's a must-win, but the loss to the Ravens has potential to motivate them somewhat.
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Old 11-07-2019, 08:11 PM   #7
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I agree, Bob.

I see this as a very evenly-matched game. I just watched the highlights of last Sunday's Eagles vs. Bears game for the third time. All I can say is that for a statistically "2nd Half team," the Eagles were dominant in the First Half. In fact, the Bears didn't get their first 1st Down until the closing seconds of the Second Quarter.

What I did notice about the Eagles was that their defensive secondary was vulnerable on Bears passing plays. Some of the Bears receivers were so wide open that they could have "counted the house" before setting off downfield. Yet, Bears QB Mitch Trubisky was only 10/21 for 125 yards. On the other hand, Carson Wentz was 26/39 for 239 yards and 1 TD.

Further, the Eagles run the ball effectively led by Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders. The Eagles also have a tough defensive front that puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Tight end Zach Ertz had a field day against the Bears; he's one tough competitor.

I'm wondering if the Eagles will use some of the same tactics that the Ravens did against the Patriots. I can see the Eagles using a lot of running plays. I also see Ertz as an Eagles short-yardage passing weapon. The Eagles also have another effective tight end, Dallas Goedert.

Furthermore, Wentz doesn't run that much; yet against the Bears he carried the ball 4 times for 15 yards.

Again, I believe it boils down to the question of whether last Sunday's Patriots' loss to the Ravens was an aberration, or was it sign of future trouble.

I know that Bill Belichick will want to avenge that Patriots loss to the Ravens. I'm sure the Patriots #1 league defense, "The Boogeymen," will be looking to redeem themselves. My gut feeling is that this will be, as cited earlier, a very close game.
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:24 AM   #8
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I was just looking at the long-range weather forecast for Philadelphia on
Sunday, November 17. The Patriots vs. Eagles matchup. Although it's still several days away, the weather forecasters are talking about the possibility of wet weather on game-day.

What impact -- if the weather forecasters are right -- will wet-field conditions have on the outcome of the game? That is a big question.

Let's first establish the facts. "The Linc" is a grass field. They go from Bermuda grass when the season starts to Kentucky Bluegrass by mid-season. What impact does the type of grass used have on the field? I couldn't say.

There are miles of heating pipes below the field. I wouldn't think that would come into play as temperatures are predicted to be well above freezing.

There is also this giant "sponge"-like device below the playing surface that sops up moisture from the field. How well this "sponge" device keeps up with rainy conditions? I couldn't tell you.

I would think that if the field is wet and rain continues to fall, it would increase the value of a team's running game.

In that category, the New England Patriots have averaged about 93 yards per game, rushing. That is in the bottom half of NFL team rushing statistics. Further, it seems incredible, but the Patriots average only 3.3 yards per rush (even the Jets rank slightly higher in the that category). The Patriots only major running threat is Sony Michel. He averages 3.35 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles average a little over 127 yards per game, rushing. Their average rushing play produces 4.24 per carry. The Eagles best runner is Jordan Howard. He averages 4.41 yards per carry. The Eagles also have Miles Sanders.

I would think that if the game-day weather is rainy, it would be an advantage to the Eagles.

Another question: "What about Tom Brady passing the football if it is raining in Philadelphia?" Remember "deflategate." Will Brady have trouble throwing the football?

There's a lot to "chew on" here, but weather can most certainly affect the outcome of a football game. We should have a better idea on the weather conditions in Philadelphia as the days go by.
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Old 11-08-2019, 04:36 PM   #9
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“I’m Just Wild About Harry”: I ask: “What is the status of N’Keal Harry for the Eagles game?” He could, if ready, make a difference. Harry hasn’t played since an August pre-season ankle injury put him on the shelf. I believe the Patriots will need every possible receiver they have available to win the game.

“Run Away” (Del Shannon): “And I wonder…”: “Will the Patriots be able to run against the Eagles?” Conversely, will the Patriots defense “The Boogeymen” et al. (You can buy one of their T-shirts for $30) be able to stop Jason Howard and Miles Sanders.

“Senor Wences" (“s’right”), The Ed Sullivan Show: “What kind of game will the Eagles QB Carson Wentz have?” He has a strong, accurate arm, yet his delivery is not the smoothest. Even at 6-foot-5, he tends to have more than his fair share of passes deflected or batted down at the line-of-scrimmage. He can be a bit reckless with his body.

“Zack Attack”: He one of the best tight ends in the game (a position on the football field, by the way, that the Patriots, since the departure of Rob Gronkowski, are sorely lacking). I’m talking about Zach Ertz. Ertz can certainly catch the ball; he can also block. He’ll be one of the best players on the field. What kind of game Ertz has may go a long way to deciding the game’s outcome.

“Roll Jordan, Roll”
: The Eagles have recently signed wide receiver Jordan Matthews. The Vanderbilt product, a former high-round Eagles pick, has been pressed into service due to the void left by the season-ending abdominal injury to DeSean Jackson.

“The Brady Bunch": “Can Tom Brady and his Patriots teammates rebound from a 34-20 loss to the Baltimore Ravens?” In Week 11, they’re not facing the likes of Lamar Jackson et al. Yet, there are still several question-marks, not the least of which will be the running of Sony Michel and the pass-catching of Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu (Will Sanu again catch 10 Brady-thrown passes as he did against the Ravens).

Folk Songs, i.e. “Blowin’ in the Wind” (Bob Dylan): “How will the Patriots new kicker, Nick Folk, fare?” He really wasn’t tested in the Ravens game. What if it comes down to a last-second field goal? “The wind is blowing left to right. The snap from center…the ball is down…the kick is up…the kick is….”

“Wedding Bell Blues”: “Bill I Love you so…” “Can Patriots coach Bill Belichick ‘right the ship’? Can he put the Patriots back on the winning track?” I’m sure it galled Belichick to no end to congratulate Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh after last Sunday’s loss to Baltimore; that coming after eight straight wins and a Super Bowl victory. I believe he’ll have the Patriots as ready as they can be, especially with two weeks to prepare.
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Old 11-10-2019, 09:48 AM   #10
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As we are now just one week away from next Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. matchup, I’d like to focus on the two teams’ records, thus far, in the 2019 NFL season.

Before I do, I’ll mention that both teams are coming of a bye week. The Patriots, under Bill Belichick, sport a 14-5 record after a bye week. The Eagles, on the hand, since 2014, are 2-3.

The Patriots stand atop the AFC East with an 8-1 record; the Eagles, on the other hand, are 5-4. They’re second behind the Cowboys in the NFC East.

As an aside, tangentially, when I was a high school history teacher, I had a colleague whose favorite question was: “Was it the man/woman who made history, or was it the period time into which that person was born that made the man/woman?”

That same question, in a different format, could be asked of the New England Patriots. “Was it the schedule that allowed the Patriots to get off to an undefeated 8-0 start, or was it the team’s overall ability that allowed them to excel? Or was it a combination of the two?” Personally, I see it as combination.

Yet, last Sunday, against a playoff-bound Ravens, “the bubble” burst. The Patriots came down to earth. The question remains: “Is this a harbinger of things to come, or was it just “a blip” on the radar screen? An aberration? If I knew the answer to that question, beforehand, I’d be sunning myself in Aruba on the ‘playa linda’.

I’d first like to look at the Patriots. In the opening week, they trounced the Steelers who, at the time, were trying to establish “their identity.” The “Steel City Boys" have recently won three-straight. They remain in contention for a playoff berth. The Patriots then trounced the Dolphins and Jets. Two teams with a combined record of 2-14. They then defeated the Bills, 16-10, in a nip-and-tuck game. After that, the Patriots defeated the hapless Redskins, 1-8, and the Giants, 2-7 records. In the ensuing week, they again trounced the Jets (“seeing ghosts” and it wasn’t even Halloween).

The Patriots then defeated the Browns in a game that was probably closer than the 27-13 final score. If Nick Clegg hadn’t been stripped of the ball in the “red zone,” the complexion of that game might have changed. Then, of course, they faced the Ravens and came up on short-end 34-20 score.

As for the Eagles, they squeaked by the Redskins and then lost to the cellar-dwelling Falcons. The Falcons have lost 6-straight. The Eagles then lost to the Lions, but they then surprised everyone by beating a very good Green Bay Packers team. The Eagles then trounced the Jets (just about everybody does), but they proceeded to lose to the Vikings. The Cowboys then easily defeated the Eagles, but “the Broad Street Boys” have strung together two-straight against the formidable Bills and the "slip-sliding away" Chicago Bears.

At this juncture I ask: “In which direction are the Eagles headed in their heretofore up-and-down season. Again, If I knew the answer to that question, I’d be de-planing in Oranjestad.
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Old 11-10-2019, 06:14 PM   #11
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As a born-and-raised Philadelphian and a lifetime Eagles fan, I have to take the home team, especially if they are getting three points. But I know it won't be easy.

This past offseason, the Eagles made two huge mistakes, they signed DeSean Jackson and Darren Sproles, both were past their primes. Wide receiver Jackson got injured on the first play of the second game. He had a sports hernia but didn’t want an operation and instead tried to heal with rest. Big mistake. He came back last week(should have rested until after the bye), after taking six games off, and got reinjured on the first play of the game. Had the operation this week and will probably miss the rest of the season. Running back Sproles has missed three games this year, but didn’t do much in the other six games. The Eagles paid both of these players a lot of money. You have to admire the Patriots the way they don’t hang on to veterans.

The Eagles have won their last two games by running the ball. They have two excellent tight ends in Dallas Goedert(2nd round pick 2018 NFL Draft) and Zach Ertz, who broke the record last year for most receptions by a tight end in a season (116). Both can block, run and catch. When they use a two tight-end set, it can drive the defenses crazy, because they can run or pass out of that formation.

Their passing game, outside of Ertz and Goedert, however, has not clicked this year. Jackson’s injury has blown a hole in their best-laid plans. The play of their two main wide receivers, Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery, has been enigmatic to say the least. Agholor is frequently plaque with the “drops,” some games the ball just slides through his hands. Jeffery looks like he’s gotten old quick. Neither of them can get much separation so Wentz frequently has no one open and dumps to the backs or tight ends when possible, or runs to move the chains.

Yes Teach, Carson Wentz is an “athlete” who can run when necessary, but he’s on strict orders not get injured again, after missing a lot of games the last two years.

Now for the Eagles defense. Their defensive line is above average, the linebackers below average, the defensive secondary is borderline god-awful. They’ve been torched time-and-time again by big plays, so often so, that they very rarely blitz any more. The result being that the opposing quarterback frequently gets a lot of time in the pocket.

The good news, from an Eagles perspective, is that the Patriots offense sucks. This is the worst 8-1 team in the history of the NFL, IMO. The Patriots didn’t try out Antonio Brown for no reason, they were desperate. The way to beat the Patriots, IMO, is not to turn the ball over. Heck, Cleveland controlled the line of scrimmage the whole game, the problem was, they gave the Patriots defense two touchdowns in the first quarter. The bad news, again from an Eagles perspective, is that the Patriots defense is borderline great.

I’m looking for a low scoring game with the special teams and home field advantage being the deciding factor. Go EAGLES!
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Old 11-10-2019, 06:31 PM   #12
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Although we are several days away from the Week 11 match-up – both teams have byes in Week 10 – between the Patriots and Eagles, I was curious as to what the point-spread would be. My initial “guess” was Patriots (+4).

In any event, I saw that a New Jersey-based online sports betting site has installed the Eagles as 1-point underdogs, or Patriots -1 at -120 (basically, a “pick-em” game).

My thought: Patriots +4 was based on my belief that the odds-makers would take into account the fact that Patriots coach Bill Belichick is a master at making adjustments after a Patriots loss (he has two weeks to do that). Personally, I’m not so sure all that is possible.

As I’ve cited, the way the 2019 NFL schedule was set up, the Patriots were given opponents that allowed, in the first half of the season, for “a Sunday walk in the park.” Now, in the second half of the season, the terrain has suddenly become “steep.” There are very few “bunnies,” with the possible exception of Cincinnati, and I’m not sure that won’t be a competitive game.

The Ravens game exposed all the Patriots’ “warts”. Principally, the offensive and defensive lines. The Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb gave us an indication. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram, Jr. added an exclamation point.

Further, the Eagles are at home at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles are riding a 2-game win-streak. Their post-season playoff hopes are very much alive. There is definitely motivation. The Eagles players will be “pumped.” Will the Eagles’ fans and players, i.e., Lane Johnson in 2017, be wearing “dog masks”?

The Patriots hadn’t had to come from behind (the Redskins scored first) after the 1st quarter until this past Sunday’s Ravens game. The Patriots couldn’t do it against the Ravens. What if the Eagles jump out on top? I ask: “Do the Patriots have the kind of team that can come from behind?”

Finally, the Patriots defense was on the field for an interminably long period of time in the Ravens game. By the 2nd half, the Patriots defense was feeling the effects. Will that scenario repeat itself? Will Carson Wentz and the Eagles play “ball control?”

I’ll have other posts on this game during the week and into the following week leading up to game. Until then…
Although you deserve props for your call against Baltimore...I am wondering if there isn't something of a PERSONAL nature between you and the Patriots. You even see the BENGALS as a suitable competitor for them?
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Old 11-11-2019, 10:11 AM   #13
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The Place: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

The Time: Sunday, November 17, 4:25 p.m.

The Teams: New England Patriots (8-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Both New England and Philadelphia are coming off a bye week.

Since the year 2000, the Patriots are 14-5 coming off the bye; the Eagles, since 2010, are 6-4.

The Patriots have split their last two. New England defeated the Cleveland Browns, but they lost to the Baltimore Ravens (The Patriots, by the way, are 47-9, since 2003, following a loss). The Eagles have won their last two; they defeated both the Bills and the Bears (The Eagles are 3-1 at home this year; their only loss was to Detroit, 27-24, in a game in which the Eagles’ Malcom Jenkins blocked a Lions 4th quarter field goal try. Yet, penalties stymied the Eagles late-in-the-game comeback attempt).

Keys to the game:

1. Home-field advantage

“The Linc” will be rocking. Eagles’ fans should be out in force, and in voice. Loud! Philadelphia supporters have had two “long” weeks to get “psyched” for this all-important game. Their enthusiasm is likely now even greater since the Vikings beat the Cowboys. The Cowboys’ loss puts the Eagles in a flat-footed tie with the Dallas atop the NFC East (The Cowboys hold the tie-breaker advantage as they won their head-to-head matchup). I believe that home-field advantage gives the Eagles an “edge,” i.e.,”12th” man/woman. (Will it be enough?). Can the Patriots take the crowd out of the game?

2. Can the Eagles Establish the Run?

In my opinion, one of the biggest questions is whether the Eagles can control the football? Can they establish their run-game? Put another way, can they keep the Tom Brady-led Patriots off the field? This Carson Wentz-quarterbacked team was once thought of as pass-oriented; yet the Eagles may, out of necessity, have morphed into a running team (They’ve lost receiver DeSean Jackson for the season). Philadelphia has two fine running backs, “Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside,” Jordan (“Roll Jordan, Roll”) Howard and the Nittany Lion alum, Miles Sanders. (Are you old enough to remember Army’s Felix “Doc” Blanchard, “Mr. Outside” and Glenn Davis, “Mr. Inside.” As an aside, I was there, then a 3-year old boy, at Yankee Stadium, when my father took me to see the October, 1945 matchup between Army vs. Notre Dame. We then lived in an apartment on E 164th St., the Bronx. The game ended in a 0-0 tie. I don’t remember a thing. Oh, you may also remember the “The Fighting Illini’s” J.C. Caroline, “Mr. Outside,” and Mickey Bates, “Mr. Inside.” Getting back to this upcoming Sunday’s game, if the Eagles can establish, as cited, a “ball-control” offense, i.e., long down-the-field, time-consuming drives, I believe they can win. The Ravens did. It’s just that the Eagles don’t have the same personnel as the Ravens. By the way, since 2016, the Eagles are 21-2 when they rush for 120+ yards.

3. Exploiting Weaknesses

The Eagles:

On several occasions, during the 2019 season, the Eagles defense has been porous against the pass. For example, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott completed 21 out of 27 passes for 239 yards in Dallas’s 37-10 win over the Eagles. The Vikings’ Kirk Cousins completed 22 passes in 29 attempts and 4 TDs against the Eagles in their 38-20 win. The Falcons’ Matt Ryan completed 27 of 43 attempts for 320 yards and 3 TDs (he did throw 3 INTs) in their 24-20 win over the Eagles. Can Tom Brady and the Patriots do the same?

The Patriots:

The question, with regard to the Patriots passing game is: “Are there just two major targets, Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu? (Are these the two receivers Tom Brady feels most comfortable throwing to?). Harking back to the Ravens game, Edelman and Sanu combined for 20 catches; the other Patriots receivers caught just 10, as Brady went 30-46 against Ravens. Another question: Will K’Neal Harry play? If so, will he be a factor?

If the Patriots have an “Achilles heel,” it’s in their offensive line. They sorely miss Isaiah Wynn, the offensive tackle hasn’t played since exiting the Miami game with turf toe. Speaking of the run-game, the Patriots rank 30th among NFL teams with a 3.3 yards per carry average. And what about Sony Michel? After a promising start in the Ravens game, he became a non-factor. Will he be used more against the Eagles? At this juncture, I ask: “Do the Eagles have the luxury of focusing in on stopping the Patriots passing game? Put another way, “Beat me with the run! We’ll give you 3 yards per carry.” In that vein, will the Eagles “blitz”? Will Philadelphia use “nickle” and “dime” packages; not just in obvious passing situations. Finally, for all his future Hall-of-Fame greatness, Tom Brady can become frustrated. He does, on occasion, make ill-advised throws, particularly when he forces “red zone” passes.

4. One Position: A Tale of Two Teams

Since Rob Gronkowski retired, New England has failed to find anyone who would even resemble a suitable replacement, either because of injuries or otherwise (There’s talk, mostly speculation, that Gronkowski will come out of retirement; he has until the end of November to do so). This lack of production, both pass-receiving and blocking-wise, from the tight end spot has been glaring (The Patriots, until last week’s loss to the Ravens, have been able to “paper over” that “problem” because of the excellent play of the Patriots defense, i.e., “The Boogeymen” et al. But now the road to the Super Bowl gets more difficult. Metaphorically, this is no longer “a walk in the park,” but a steep Grand Canyon-like trail. To carry this an ad nauseum level, one can easily slip and not “regain their footing.”

Conversely, the Eagles have one of the best tight ends in the NFL in the person of Zach Ertz. #86, the former Stanford University Cardinal, had 9 catches, one for a TD, against the Bears in the Eagles most recent win, 22-14, on November 3. In his career, 2013-2019, Ertz has made 483 catches for 5,354 yards. He’s scored 31 touchdowns.

I’ll be back later in the week with my prediction.
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Old 11-12-2019, 09:33 AM   #14
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As my NFL football “crystal ball” begins to come into focus (I’ve yet to finalize my pick on this week’s Patriots vs. Eagles game), I keep thinking about the success that Patriots coach Bill Belichick has had, over the years, after his team has lost (You can add bye-week preparation-time to the equation). I’m sure his “Do Your Job” approach will be in evidence at “The Linc” Sunday afternoon.

Yet, as I look at this game, as I do many others, I see it as a “chess match.” I ask: “Do the Patriots, and for that matter the Eagles, have all the “pieces.” Put another way, on both teams there are some “missing links.”

I would aver at this juncture that all the planning and all the preparation may not be enough to put up a winning number.

Personally, I believe the start of the game, the 1st Half, will be critical. The Eagles showed that against the Bears two weeks ago when they jumped out to a 12-0 First Half lead. Conversely, the Patriots quickly fell behind against the Ravens. They were never able to “dig out of that hole.”

Furthermore, I believe that the New England Patriots – of all their future opponents – are facing their toughest challenge, this Sunday, against the Eagles. The Eagles’ strengths remind me of the Ravens, sans Lamar Jackson. Philadelphia can run the ball, i.e., Howard and Sanders, as the Ravens’ Jackson and Ingram did. If Doug Pedersen designs a play or two for Carson Wentz, that would add to the running threat. The Ravens tight end, Nick Boyle, had five catches. Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert will likely have more than that.

And what about the kicking game? Advantage Eagles: Jake Elliott vs. Nick Folk. If it comes down to that final kick? Just ask the San Francisco 49ers!
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Old 11-12-2019, 12:20 PM   #15
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For what it's worth. Belichick is 14-5 with the pats after a bye. Last ten years 3 losses. Seattle,Pitt and Carolina.
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