This Is My Kind Of Derby Year!

[Thomas Roulston]

Three "Super Dual Qualifiers" - the presence of some stamina-wing chef-de-race influences making them "super" - in the likely Derby field, and all three are realistic contenders:

Gormley: 120 - 7-5-12-2-0, 2.25, 0.65

Gunnevera: 117 - 7-8-10-2-3, 2.00, 0.47

McCraken: 119 - 7-4-12-0-1, 2.43, 0.67

Too bad Mastery (121 - 3-3-7-1-0, 2.11, 0.57) had to suffer that bad break in the San Felipe; then it would have been four.

[PowerUpPaynter]

where did you find dosage numbers?

[sbcaris]

You find the dosage numbers at the pedigree query site.

One major point: How many. dual qualifiers have won the roses in the last 10 years? I only found 1 dual qualifier that won the Ky Derby in the last decade and that was Street Sense in 2007. So in the last decade 90% of our Ky Derby winners were NOT dual qualifiers.

Furthermore, our last Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah, had a dosage index of 4.33 and did not qualify under the dual qualifier criteria.

[PowerUpPaynter]

whats a duel qualifier?

[f2tornado]

I believe Super Saver 2010 was also a dual qualifier but, yes, that method went out the window as early as 1988. I read an article on Blood Horse back in the day that only 5 DQs won between 1988 and 2003. You would hit just as many winners during that stretch simply wagering on every Gary Stevens and Jerry Bailey mount. I'd still be leery of very high dosage horses at classic distances. Only a few have won the Derby with a DI of 5+ at the time of the race. Only two with a DI of 4+ have won the Belmont, one of them AP. I will be watching McCraken and Gunnevera in their final preps closely. If Gunnevera has solid closing time in the Florida Derby then I will hit it hard in the final future wager. Not much else excites me yet but if those two do falter then the Derby could be a very nice price. If there was a Belmont future wager both would be worth a dart with their respective Dosage profiles.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

whats a duel qualifier?

A DI of 4.00 or less and foreign champions or were weighted within 10 pounds of the highweight on the previous year’s Experimental Free Handicap ranking of 2-year-olds.

I don't know the number of starters to numbers of winners ratio but picking two of the last 10 probably offers minimal impact value especially considering Smarty and Super were around 4-1 each. If I like a horse already then I might bet with a little more confidence if it is a DQ but otherwise I have completely ignored these for the last five years. I believe DQs have had a little more success in the Belmont. I'll try and dig up the stats sometime.

[Thomas Roulston]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

You find the dosage numbers at the pedigree query site.

One major point: How many. dual qualifiers have won the roses in the last 10 years? I only found 1 dual qualifier that won the Ky Derby in the last decade and that was Street Sense in 2007. So in the last decade 90% of our Ky Derby winners were NOT dual qualifiers.

Furthermore, our last Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah, had a dosage index of 4.33 and did not qualify under the dual qualifier criteria.

But with AP the exception really proves the rule, since now most horses do not qualify either on Dosage or having at least some Solid/Professional chef-de-race representation (the typical American-raced thoroughbred these days has a DI around 3.00 and no stamina-wing points), whether they are within 10 pounds on the EFH or not, when a few decades ago Derby fields were dominated by the likes of Jim French and Avatar and Proud Truth - all of whom had DIs under 1.00.

So in most recent years, there hasn't been a realistic contender, and almost never a favorite or near-favorite, who has been a Super Dual Qualifier. But this year there are three of them.

[sbcaris]

I beg to differ regarding your statement that a few decades ago Derby fields were dominated by horses with a dosage index under 1.00. The following data will show that horses with a dosage index under 1.00 were rare even 50 years ago.

1967--There were 14 Derby runners and only two of the 14 had a dosage index under 1.00 (Reason to Hail and Ask the Fare).

1968--All 14 starters had a dosage index over 1.00.

1969--5 of the 7 starters had a DI over 1.00.

1970---15 of the 16 starters had a DI over 1.00.

1971---15 of the 19 starters had a DI over 1.00.

1972---10 of the 14 starters had a DI over 1.00

1973--All 13 starters had a DI over 1.00

1974--20 of the 23 starters had a DI over 1.00.

Side note: Who was the last Derby winner to have a dosage index under 1.00. Answer: Lucky Debonair back in 1965. Its been over 50 years since a Derby winner carried a dosage index under 1.00.

[Thomas Roulston]

The mean/median/average Dosage Index of a Derby starter has nonetheless gone in one direction over the past several decades - straight up - while the percentage of starters with at least some Solid and/or Professional chef-de-race representation has gone in one direction over the same period - straight down.

I'm looking for 1990 all over again in 2017 - when the '90 Derby's three Super Dual Qualifiers - Unbridled, Summer Squall and Pleasant Tap - ran 1-2-3 for I believe a $1,500 trifecta payout. Three years later Sea Hero won as the lone Super Dual Qualifier at as I recall 12-1 (in between, Tejano Run finished second in the '92 Derby as the lone SDQ).

[sandpit]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

The mean/median/average Dosage Index of a Derby starter has nonetheless gone in one direction over the past several decades - straight up - while the percentage of starters with at least some Solid and/or Professional chef-de-race representation has gone in one direction over the same period - straight down.

I'm looking for 1990 all over again in 2017 - when the '90 Derby's three Super Dual Qualifiers - Unbridled, Summer Squall and Pleasant Tap - ran 1-2-3 for I believe a $1,500 trifecta payout. Three years later Sea Hero won as the lone Super Dual Qualifier at as I recall 12-1 (in between, Tejano Run finished second in the '92 Derby as the lone SDQ).

I was at the 1990 Derby and bet those 3 horses, but they didn't have trifecta betting on track then, so I was stuck with an exacta of less than $100 when my 40-1 shot couldn't quite crack the top 2. I loved Pleasant Tap; he was the first still might be the only horse to run in 4 different Breeders' Cup races.

[yankeelpn]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

where did you find dosage numbers?

http://www.horse-races.net/

[sbcaris]

Here is an interesting question. What percent of starters in the Derby over the last 10 years were super dual qualifiers? Then what percent of the in the money finishers have been super dual qualifiers over the last 10 years?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here is an interesting question. What percent of starters in the Derby over the last 10 years were super dual qualifiers? Then what percent of the in the money finishers have been super dual qualifiers over the last 10 years?

What is a "super" dual qualifier?

I'm sure you'll tell me, and I'm very interested to know the horses over the last 10 years.

I'm guessing over the past decade to be Mucho Macho Man, Street Sense, and Pioneer of the Nile. I'm sure none of those "qualify".

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

What is a "super" dual qualifier?

I've heard that term used to reference a dual qualifier who has solid/professional dosage point(s).

This year year's super DQs would be Gunnevera, Gormley, and McCraken.

[Blenheim]

You fellers might want to read Roman's latest book, Dosage - Pedigree and Performance. Here is a quote from Chapter 21 - Dosage and the Classics: Dual Qualifiers:


It should be easy to see why the Dual Qualifier concept has aroused so much interest. These results are compelling evidence that a staying pedigree, early maturity, and an early expression of high class have been more critical to a Derby victory than some of the conventional criteria used to predict the winner. The Derby favorite is often the "form" horse, a colt or filly coming off a smashing win in his or her last Derby prep race. As we all are aware, these favorites have failed every year since 1978 and until Fusaichi Pegasus' Derby victory in 2000. One conclusion that may be drawn from the success of the Dual Qualifiers, often long odds winners, is that form at nine furlongs in the prep is not always a good predictor of form at ten furlongs in the Derby.


Roman's web site has gone dark, but what he has written still matters. Chapter 21 is a great read, some good stuff in thare, he starts hittin' the nail on the head come page 144. You can download his book here: http://saroman7.wixsite.com/dosage