Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-01-2018, 04:39 PM   #1
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
BC Mile

This is a extremely difficult race to handicap in my opinion which makes it more fun! Odds should be generous, verticals should pay well

Program Horse
One Master group 1 winner of the Prix de la Foret-basically passed the whole field to win. Never been 1 mile. Group 3 winner on yielding turf, price should be right-using
Next Shares grade I winner last w/big beyer speed figure earned at KEE. Have no idea what to do w/this one but leaning against.
Happily big run last out against top class Laurens back on lasix, Aiden Obrien group 1 winner on soft turf at 2 against only 6 competitors though
Polydream overseas bookies lowest odd horse-thats good enough for me. Well documented trouble in the Foret. Never been the distance
Oscar Performance undefeated at the distance top rider JL Ortiz in the irons
Almanaar Chad Brown runner coming off a poor race-can't use
Expert Eye 3rd against top class Recoletos in Pric de Moulin; never won at the distance. Defeated three back by Lightning Spear while getting weight.
I Can Fly excellent run on soft turf to just miss against Roaring Lion while basically on equal weights. Lost to One Master 4 back on yileding turf at 7F-some things to like-using
Hunt-SCR
Catapult back to back group 2 wins at DMR has handled off turf in the past. Not sure he has beat much.
Lightning Spear old pro winner of the group 1 Sussex Stakes beating Expert Eye while giving him 7 lbs. Appears over the top.
Analyze It Chad Brown runner found older horse too tough in first attempt. Waters are deeper here
Gustav Klimt Obrien/Moore; 0 for 5 at a mile. Best timform rating on heavy ground@6F-using
Mustashry Shadwell color bearer in serious form in 2018-post no help-using
Divisidero always liked this one but not today-pass
Clemmie

Going 6 deep in the horizontals w/,,,,,. Probably will play WPS at ML or higher odds.

Who do you like?
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 04:48 PM   #2
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
early publichandicapper odds:

PR # PP # Horse Name Jockey Odds
1 1. One Master J. Doyle 12-1
2 2. Next Shares T. Gaffalione 10-1
3 3. Happily W. Lordan 15-1
4 4. Polydream M. Guyon 5-1
5 5. Oscar Performance J. Ortiz 6-1
6 6. Almanaar J. Rosario 12-1
7 7. Expert Eye L. Dettori 8-1
8 8. I Can Fly J. Spencer 10-1
9 9. Hunt-SCR F. Prat N/A
10 10. Catapult D. Van Dyke 6-1
11 11. Lightning Spear O. Murphy 20-1
12 12. Analyze It I. Ortiz 6-1
13 13. Gustav Klimt R. Moore 10-1
14 14. Mustashry W. Buick 15-1
15 15. Divisidero J. Toledo 30-1
16 16. Clemmie A. Atzeni 30-1
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 07:07 PM   #3
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Racebet odds

4
POLYDREAM (IRE)
12-0117
5/2
5
OSCAR PERFORMANCE
139-191 D
6/1
7
EXPERT EYE (GB)
201213
13/2
13
GUSTAV KLIMT (IRE)
234534
7/1
3
HAPPILY (IRE)
334552 D
9/1
1
ONE MASTER (GB)
1-43411
10/1
8
I CAN FLY (GB)
415142 D
10/1
12
ANALYZE IT
1-12224 D BF
14/1
11
LIGHTNING SPEAR (GB)
0-23157 D
16/1
6
ALMANAAR (GB)
3/21-128 D
20/1
14
MUSTASHRY (GB)
17-1211 D
20/1
16
CLEMMIE (IRE)
1-95338
20/1
2
NEXT SHARES
736011 D
25/1
10
CATAPULT
412-211 D
25/1
15
DIVISIDERO
4-24135 CD
33/1
9
HUNT (IRE)
701-106 D
66/1
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 07:45 PM   #4
ARAZI91
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 89
Agree this is a tight race on paper , i have 6 all within 3lbs on known best form and there are a few lively outsiders. Polydreams current UK price(5-2) must have some input from reputation/country and also being still unexposed. Of course she can win and is certainly a classy animal but unproven out of France and previously was injured at the end of her 2yo campaign , just looks the type where everything has to fall just right (Gheest 2 back) Trip doubts add to that and i would have her around 7-2 in this field and be looking for a premium on top of that.
At the prices and based on their preps and campaigns so far along with jockey bookings Expert Eye and One Master make some appeal.
ARAZI91 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 07:51 PM   #5
azeri98
Registered User
 
azeri98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,934
If the turf is soft or yielding I like Oscar Performance, it's harder to make up ground on soft turf I think he can go gate to wire
azeri98 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 07:58 PM   #6
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by azeri98 View Post
If the turf is soft or yielding I like Oscar Performance, it's harder to make up ground on soft turf I think he can go gate to wire
looks like yielding at least if i had to guess. It was still raining @6pm in Louisville. Oscar does have a win over yielding ground. The way the US tracks usually take races off the turf if there is rain, I would think this would heavily favor the Euros. I'm throwing him out even though he is unbeaten at the distance-some people never learn

Last edited by Afleet; 11-01-2018 at 08:00 PM.
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 08:01 PM   #7
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
Here's a hint:

You can't go wrong with a Mustash in Movember.
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 08:08 PM   #8
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
Here's a hint:

You can't go wrong with a Mustash in Movember.
not concerned about loss of ground?
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 08:15 PM   #9
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
I wouldn't be surprised to see 5 and 12 run one-two around the track.
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 08:23 PM   #10
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
I wouldn't be surprised to see 5 and 12 run one-two around the track.
Hopefully they send Happily
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 08:35 PM   #11
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
not concerned about loss of ground?
Not at all.

He's breaking from the 13 hole.

Last time the Cup was in Churchill, my top pick was Turallure who broke from the 13 hole. He got home second.
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-01-2018, 10:39 PM   #12
Suff
Beat up 💪
 
Suff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
Suff is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2018, 09:04 AM   #13
spiketoo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 361
Polydream out.
spiketoo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2018, 09:46 AM   #14
CheckMark
 
CheckMark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,684
does that mean that the AE horses go in?
CheckMark is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-03-2018, 09:38 AM   #15
jimmyb
Registered User
 
jimmyb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,434
I'm going with the , next shares. Gaffalione in the irons.



Also going with the , clemmie. Aiden O'Brien and Andrea Atzeni combo.
W+P both
jimmyb is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:42 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.