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10-26-2012, 04:10 PM
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#751
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
a month ago, the republican was dead meat, 2 weeks ago the democrat was a goner, now the republican is in some trouble. the bottom line is that this election is flip-flopping, just like the candidates that are running in it.
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"Just through partisan eyes"
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10-26-2012, 04:22 PM
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#752
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 14,487
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Facts and fiction, :
If Barack Hussein Obama is reelected major layoff's will occur.
Those scared for their job now will vote for Barack Hussein Obama.
How much does it cost You to fill up your pickup truck today?
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10-26-2012, 04:59 PM
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#753
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,768
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thegreek.com has lowered their election odds: democrats -$220-$100.
very interesting development in Wisconsin, that line has been drifting downwards since it was put up. it is now $380-$100. someone mentioned this yesterday, and that state looks like its replacing Ohio as being the key state in this election. there looks like there is some big time momentum in that state towards the republican
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10-28-2012, 10:47 AM
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#754
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 881
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Romney to win popular vote and Obama to win Electoral College can be had at 11/2 right now. Going to throw a few quid on that. It was 12/1 last week... kicking myself I didn't get some of that price. Think this will be a very likely outcome, as right now I think it's easier for Obama to get to 270 than Romney, but every national poll showing MR shading the overall vote.
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10-28-2012, 12:04 PM
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#755
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Canadian since 51
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nearco
Romney to win popular vote and Obama to win Electoral College can be had at 11/2 right now. Going to throw a few quid on that. It was 12/1 last week... kicking myself I didn't get some of that price. Think this will be a very likely outcome, as right now I think it's easier for Obama to get to 270 than Romney, but every national poll showing MR shading the overall vote.
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I agree. Depending on any last week sizeable shift, that is a likely result.
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10-28-2012, 12:21 PM
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#756
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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I know that when you look at the state polls this looks like a likely or very possible scenario, but based on history, four Presidents have won the popular vote and lost the election, but the biggest margin was Gore 48.38% of the vote vs Bush 47.87 of the vote. So Gore had about 500,000 more votes which was about a half percent.
The other three Presidents had much smaller margins. Right now Rasmussen has Romney +3 and Gallup has Romney +5. The other polls are not reliable in my opinion, so Romney has a 4% point advantage in the national polls, and a strong chance of winning by more than that. According to these two polls, Obama figures to get between 46 and 47% of the popular vote, which makes sense when you consider that he got 53% of the vote four years ago when he was immensely more popular than he is now.
Most polling experts feel that any candidate that wins the popular vote by at least 2% is a cinch to win the electoral vote regardless of how the state polls look right now. The bottom line is, for Obama to win via the electoral college with only 47% of the vote, that would mean that Romney would only get about 47 to 48% of the popular vote and the other 3 or 4 percent would go to other candidates but there are no popular third party candidates this year.
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10-28-2012, 12:37 PM
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#757
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,768
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no one is talking about this, but Romney got some big leads in stats like GEORIGIA, ALABAMA, MISS., OAKLAHOMA, TEXAS. in those states he is carrying over 60% of the vote. obama has nowhere near 60% in the states that he is winning. no question that this election is shaping up to be a very big win popular vote wise for Romney.
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10-28-2012, 12:53 PM
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#758
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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I just finished reading an article on polling in the Morning Call, our local PA. paper here. James Lee, who is a pollster for Susquehanna Polling (they poll for the Pittsburgh Tribune and they are listed on real clear politics), said that in their most recent poll, Romney is leading by 4 points in PA. In their last poll he was behind 2 points. The reason, he explains, that Romney is doing better in their polls is because they factor turnout and the other pollsters don't. Susquehanna predicted that Toomney would win the Senate seat by 2 points in 2010 and he did (others had the race closer or Sestak winning).
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10-28-2012, 01:23 PM
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#759
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,768
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2 notable line changes from thegreek,com: New Hampshire is down to democrats -$180-$100, Wisconsin down to democrats --$365-$100.
Virginia is now the republican -$130 and Florida the republican -$280-$100.
momentum clearly on the republican side with 1 week to go.
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10-28-2012, 06:33 PM
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#760
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 7,727
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
2 notable line changes from thegreek,com: New Hampshire is down to democrats -$180-$100, Wisconsin down to democrats --$365-$100.
Virginia is now the republican -$130 and Florida the republican -$280-$100.
momentum clearly on the republican side with 1 week to go.
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I don't believe you even believe "momentum clearly on the republican side with 1 week to go."
In football terms, Romney needs to gain another 20 yards with 45 seconds to go in order to attempt a game winning 50 yard field goal against the wind.
Oh yea. Forgot to mention Romney is out of timeouts.
Meanwhile, Obama is taking knee at the 8 yard line in order to kill the clock before attempting the game winning field goal and flags are limp.
I'll grant you Romney could make his field goal and Obama could miss the chipshot. After all, there really was a "Miracle at the Meadowlands" and Flutie's Hail Mary.
But things aren't lookin' good in Mudville for our Obama neighsayers.
__________________
One flew east, one flew west,
One flew over the cuckoo's nest.
Last edited by NJ Stinks; 10-28-2012 at 06:39 PM.
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10-28-2012, 06:40 PM
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#761
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Stillriledup is going to think that is the greatest thing ever written.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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10-28-2012, 06:50 PM
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#762
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 7,727
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith
Stillriledup is going to think that is the greatest thing ever written.
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Does that mean you don't? 
P.S. I can't find that newspaper you printed last night. 
__________________
One flew east, one flew west,
One flew over the cuckoo's nest.
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10-28-2012, 06:57 PM
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#763
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NJ Stinks
Does that mean you don't?
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I don't like nor do I even really understand what's going on in football with the exception of the Super Bowl Shuffle. But I did like the part about Obama on his knees trying to run out the clock. 
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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10-29-2012, 02:51 AM
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#764
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Bird Rock
Posts: 16,697
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NJ Stinks
I don't believe you even believe "momentum clearly on the republican side with 1 week to go."
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Riddle me this. Show me ONE state where BO has made an advance since October turd. {That's the 3rd of Oct, 2012. The day of exposing the thorough emptiness of this impostor. AKA. The night of the first debate.}
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10-29-2012, 10:45 AM
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#765
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 8,429
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RASMUSSEN: Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
discuss
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