some one had a good day . aqu 11/22/03

[formula_2002]

Aside from the fact that a bet on every horse on the race card returned a profit of 35%. (There was a winning 73-1 shot), any bettor who was able to keep pace with the win pool (losing 14%) would attain the following;

Improve his profit in the 1st race DD to 5%.

Improve his profit in the 8th race DD to 4%.

Worsen the 2nd race pick 3 loss to -23%

Improve the 3rd race pick 3 to +10%

Worsen the 4th race pick 3 loss to -15%

Worsen the 5th race pick 3 loss to -43%

Improve the 7th race pick 3 to +26%

Improve the 6th race pick 4 to +3%

Over all, on the day, these pools returned a profit of 4 ½% even though a winning bet on each individual win pool, would statistically, return a long term loss of 14%

[Suff]

Joe, in english please?

Could yea splain it for the knuckleheads like me?

Follow the win pool?

Improve the 3rd race PIK3?

If you don't have the time today.. could you find a minute this week to break this down for the average joe?

[formula_2002]

Suff, it’ about determining the expected fair pay-off of a DD or any of the pick races.

Example:
If a horse is 3-1 in the win pool of a 14% tack out track, its true probability of winning is (1/ (odds+1)) x (1-.14) or 21.5%

So if two 3-1 shots win the DD, the expected fair would be .215*.251=.0630 which translates into odds of about 15-1.

If 3-1 shots win the pick 3 then it’s .215*.215*.215 =.01 or 99-1.

All this is a generalization of the win pool odds being true. Base upon the results of many empirical studies, including my own of over 200,000 horse, horses win in accordance with their odds, with a bias towards short price horses..

In AQU 1st race daily double the actual pay-off was $375.50 compared to an expected fair pay-off of $ 359.00 . If those conditions were repeated 1000’s of times, you would make 5%, even when the win odds (22.30 -1 and 4.70-1) would represent a 14% loss in the win pool and I would start to be seriously!!!

Hope this helps.

For further reading on this see "Commonsense Betting" by Dick Mitchel and "Money Secretes At The Race Track" by Barry Meadow.

Joe M

[sq764]

I have just realized something after reading your thread.. My college degree really was worthless, cause I didn't understand anything in there :-)

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by sq764
I have just realized something after reading your thread.. My college degree really was worthless, cause I didn't understand anything in there :-)

Perhaps I'm stumbling in my explanation, but these calculations have to be recognized by any serious player who is seeking a long term future in this game. (Unless ofcourse they are VERY VERY lucky).

This stuff is pre-horse racing 101!!

[sq764]

We will have to agree to disagree on that one Joe.

An overlay to me is getting more than I think is fair, plain and simple.

[Suff]

Originally posted by formula_2002
. (Unless ofcourse they are VERY VERY lucky).

Thank God! I thought I was doomed. I admire anyone that sticks a stake in the ground and says "it all lands here"

[Larry Hamilton]

What I find annoying is your presumption that based on your experience (as a losing player-your words) that you are capable of defining both a serious player and a winning player!

Your experience and abilities make you capable of defining in some personal part what loses, but in no way establishes your credentials of defining a winner.

The overwheling truth is, you dont know what winning is or you would be doing that !

[Suff]

Larry Makes a Good point Joe.

But don't you guys go off half cocked at each other...as these "scientific" topics do frequently.

I'm the official " go off half cocked" member.

[Larry Hamilton]

BLUE RESPONSE ALERT!!!

I apologize to the group for running around with a half a cock. I'll look for the rest of it after the races

[Suff]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
BLUE RESPONSE ALERT!!!

lol.. maybe thats a Regional Phrase inappropiattley placed...translated it means....

Good discussion...don't blow it up.

[Larry Hamilton]

You're right...sorry all

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton

The overwheling truth is, you dont know what winning is or you would be doing that !

Larry, the note was all about the math of the game.
There are plenty of people you can take issue with on the subject, many more qualified then me.

And, based upon the math, and for the record I will say again that I find the game most impossible to beat.
But to stop the storm of protest I have witnessed in the past I will happily accept that any one who says he is a winner is indeed a winner.

Joe M

[sq764]

Joe, I think your math is fine.. I take issue with this comment:

"but these calculations have to be recognized by any serious player who is seeking a long term future in this game"

I know several people who make a good living off of this sport and it is their full-time job. And I know for a fact none of the 3 bothers with the calculating you are referring to.

I don't think luck is the driving force behind their success either. Maybe this information would sharpen their game, maybe not.. But to say that this is a 'must' for every serious handicapper is just simply not true.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by sq764
Joe, I think your math is fine.. I take issue with this comment:

I know several people who make a good living off of this sport and it is their full-time job. And I know for a fact none of the 3 bothers with the calculating you are referring to.

Sq

great! Makes things much easier for them..

Joe M