Offlee Wild.....how did they know?

[Buckeye]

"They" knew . . .

[shanta]

Originally posted by Buckeye
"They" knew . . .

I have always wondered who "THEY" are!
Richie

[comet]

If you are a Ragozin or Thorograph SHEET user, it was very obvious who the play was in the Mass Cap. Offlee Wild, when switched to Dutrow, ran a new top in that Allowance race win at Belmont. His previous top was run over 1 year ago.
He had 5 weeks rest and Prado came in to ride (his only mount for the day). That top was very competitive with the field for the Mass Cap. Offlee Wild had the rail and was getting weight from Funny Cide. This just goes to show you how many SHEET users there are out there. I expected 5-1 on Offlee Wild and got
only 3-1.

[Valuist]

It wasn't just the numbers. The trainer had as much to do with it as anything. Dutrow is one of those guys who moves horses up considerably.

[cj]

Originally posted by comet
If you are a Ragozin or Thorograph SHEET user, it was very obvious who the play was in the Mass Cap. Offlee Wild, when switched to Dutrow, ran a new top in that Allowance race win at Belmont. His previous top was run over 1 year ago.
He had 5 weeks rest and Prado came in to ride (his only mount for the day). That top was very competitive with the field for the Mass Cap. Offlee Wild had the rail and was getting weight from Funny Cide. This just goes to show you how many SHEET users there are out there. I expected 5-1 on Offlee Wild and got
only 3-1.

I can't speak for "The Sheets", but the TG guys gave this analysis as it was their "Race of the Week"

Offlee Wild (111) (15-1) – This guy ran two big efforts early on at 3 and at that point
seemed like he might have a say in the Triple Crown races. However, those efforts had
consequences and Offlee Wild bounced in both the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby and
in a short campaign later in the year, he still wasn’t able to get back to effort levels he ran
in January and February--not a healthy sign. This year the signs are a little more mixed
and difficult to read. On the positive side, after a 14 week rest, he debuted with a 2, a
repeat of his top. He bounced 4 weeks later, but with additional rest, 8 weeks from the
bounce and 12 weeks from the initial effort, Offlee Wild ran a new top, negative 0-1/4.
That’s a positive sign of development and only 2-1/4 points better than 3yr-old top. That
he bounced in between tops is not good and certainly projects for a bounce here as well.
However, he is improving now and there’s a chance he can pair up efforts. And if he
does, he could be a player here. He gets in light at 111. Remember 5 pounds on the
Thoro-Graph scale is equal to 1 point. And he gets the rail which should aid in a ground
saving trip at least around the first turn. Offlee Wild’s pattern is ouchy but he is
improving and the conditions work in his favor. Another good effort, which is possible,
puts him in the mix at a big price. Longshot contender.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, and he doesn't even mention the trainer change. To me, that change made all the other "bounces" irrelevant.

The pick, by the way, was Evening Attire with "Strong Contender"

[Suff]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I can't speak for "The Sheets", but the TG guys gave this analysis as it was their "Race of the Week"



Not exactly a ringing endorsement, and he doesn't even mention the trainer change. To me, that change made all the other "bounces" irrelevant.

The pick, by the way, was Evening Attire with "Strong Contender"

Sure don't seem "Obvious" to me... as Comet states. He musta had him and Feels smart today

[stgeorge]

And in Offlee Wild's last race at Belmont he beat Pletcher's 3YO Shaniko. Shaniko came back to finish eleventh in the Grade 3 Northern Dancer at Churchill last week.

[comet]

yes I had him and had him heavy.

He was a much better play on the Sheets (ragozin) which is what I use. I should have stated that before.

I didn't even see the Race of the week for the other Sheets website. I just figured they would land on the same horse.

My bad.

no need to apologize comet, most of the experts on this site aren't aware that allmost 90% of the high rollers use the sheets.

[Valuist]

Thats ridiculous. REALLY high rollers do their own numbers and their own trips. I do know one professional who buys the Sheets every day just to compare to his own numbers. And he uses it to go against them when he feels they've make a mistake.

how many high roller rooms have you ever been in?

[Valuist]

LOL

You don't have to hang around "high roller rooms" to know who the biggest players in your area are. If you've been around the sport for 20 years or more, you know who the big players (at least on your circuit) are. The guy I'm referring to is not only the best bettor I've ever seen but a successful owner.

I do think Brown is striving to always make his product better. There is solid trainer and pedigree info there and the turf numbers are solid. But as long as pace and bias info aren't included, the dirt numbers cannot be taken as gospel.

[comet]

From the DRF website...


Dutrow enjoying the moment

Speaking of Offlee Wild, trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. said he would consider the Whitney for that colt's next start. Of course, it was hard to hear Dutrow as his voice was still hoarse from cheering on Saturday.

"That's a spot we're looking at," said Dutrow, who was confident in Offlee Wild's chances in the Mass Cap. "I bet out on him, so did everybody I know. I thought he was going to be tough to beat."

Offlee Wild, a son of Wild Again, is now 2 for 2 since moving to Dutrow from trainer T.V. Smith. Dutrow said Offlee Wild had myriad infirmities when he got him, but "nothing major."

[Valuist]

There is an interesting phenomenon at work. When horses get bet down like Offlee Wild and they end up in photo finishes, they almost always win. I've seen this happen too many times, many times in just run of the mill claiming races. But when these types always have that "little something extra", it really makes one wonder if all they've been feed is hay.

[tdthomas]

Originally posted by comet
From the DRF website...


Dutrow enjoying the moment

"That's a spot we're looking at," said Dutrow, who was confident in Offlee Wild's chances in the Mass Cap. "I bet out on him, so did everybody I know. I thought he was going to be tough to beat."

"

Thank you, Comet. That is what I suspected. The General Public just doesn't bet these horses like that. I suspect some general public noted the action and took and second and third look at the horse, and kept the odds from going to a more "typical" level.