Dow and S&P Bear Market?

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by bks

Vastly, vastly overvalued. What are the odds we see 10K before 20K?

The charts are all broken. It takes quite a bit of time for those to repair. Absolutely no reason to buy this market for the rest of 2015.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Not just the charts are broken. The liquidity in the market is so thin that prices are having a tough time finding any stable value. I'm surprised that after two days we're still seeing these moves in the futures......huge.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by bks

Vastly, vastly overvalued. What are the odds we see 10K before 20K?

10k is a realistic projection for September of next year!

[Marshall Bennett]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Pretty crazy today. Nobody was surprised at the deadcat bounce 2-3% rally for most of today. What people weren't expecting was the final 30 minutes wiped out all the gains. This market is sick.

A reflection of an unstable economy, which in general is sick.

[ReplayRandall]

Here are two posts I made in other threads back in early July:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall on 07-01-2015

DOW--Will fall below 16K before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 15,000- 15,250

NASDAQ--Will fall below 4400 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 4000- 4050

S&P 500--Will fall below 1900 before stabilizing, only to test a new low between 1800- 1825

Of course, any major homeland crisis or further economic unraveling in Europe and China, and we may plunge into a very deep worldwide recession/depression......Monitor all precious metals on a daily basis for a break-out, be liquid and have cash at the ready to buy physically, IMO.

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall on 07-09-2015

With one of the lowest volume totals of the year, The DOW's 30 components ALL dropped today......July and August looking mighty bleak, historically speaking, and with chaos bubbling in China and the Eurozone......NYSE, WSJ and United Air all with "glitches"? Hmmm......I wonder what will happen next?..

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI  Watchlist

17,515.42 Down 261.49(1.47%) 4:42PM EDT

Adj Close*

Jul 8, 2015 Volume- 69,830,000 Close-17,515.42

[Valuist]

Futures down pretty big again. The market takes the stairs up, but the elevator down.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Futures down pretty big again. The market takes the stairs up, but the elevator down.

The opposite of gasoline prices.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think you need to distinguish between libertarians and mainstream republicans.

If libertarians had their way, we'd have a sound banking and monetary financial system. 2008 would never have even happened. But given that we don't and it did, many libertarians would have liked to have seen all the large financial institutions to be bailed out to save the jobs and to prevent the economy from collapsing, but the upper management that engaged in illegal and unethical dealings either jailed or thrown out and the system reformed.

The "upper management" did not engage in illegal dealings. They had bought enough congressmen to make sure that anything they did was not illegal. They did do and still are doing plenty of things that are unethical.
I never ceased to amazed by the libertarians who apparently think that if we have no laws regulating business, that some how the free enterprise system will make the crooks stop act acting like crooks and start acting with integrity. I forget who said it, but whoever it was had it about right " The only difference between John Dillinger and a bank president is the amount of money they steal. " I will add there is another difference in today's world. The bank president not only bought off enough congressmen to make sure his stealing was not a crime, but there is also a good chance he wrote a book promoting the idea that his stealing was nothing more than sound business practice, should be celebrated and taught in business schools.

[Tom]

I never ceased to amazed by the libertarians who apparently think that if we have no laws regulating business, that some how the free enterprise system will make the crooks stop act acting like crooks and start acting with integrity.

Name three.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

Not just the charts are broken. The liquidity in the market is so thin that prices are having a tough time finding any stable value. I'm surprised that after two days we're still seeing these moves in the futures......huge.

I have been saying this for months. Despite stocks being widely held, most of the stock is held by things like pension funds who are fully invested and can not move. It is a relative few traders who trade back and forth between themselves that set the price of a stock. This works fine until they all get the same idea that today is the day to sell. A smart trader( and most are very smart) will not start buying until he thinks it at the bottom and only he and God knows where that price point is. You will see days like today as some the traders use algorithms which trigger the buying and selling of certain stocks for reasons that do make much sense in a strong bear market. At the risk of looking like a fool, I expect several more days of strong declines then the market to stabilize until some time in October, when the bottom will fall out again. I think it is going to get really bad by the end the year and early into next year. I do not think a drop below 9000 is out the question. Our large companies are so heavily invested overseas and in China in particular that we have to go the way the world goes. The greedy companies that went overseas to save a buck on taxes are going to be the hardest hit. I learned a long time ago, but I keep forgetting it when things are relatively good that when companies start looking at tax laws, cost cutting, and accounting tricks to show an increase in earnings rather introducing new and better products, a bear market is coming fast. Greed always implodes on itself sooner rather than later. It is just too bad the greedy bastards have to cause so much misery to so many innocent bystanders. I am confident the country will start to recover from this recession by the end of next year, but history tells us that at some point the greedy bastards will go too far and the country will not be able to recover. Hopefully that time is well off into the future. But when I listen to the GOP hopefuls, I begin to wander how far off that time is. They seem to be pushing every bad idea that has been tried failed in the past. It is like they have had their eye shut and their ear plugs in their entire life. 1998 and 2008 did happen in their worlds. Neither did 1929 or 1974 or 1948 or 1959 or 1992.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by Tom

Name three.

The father and son duo of Ron and Rand Paul and former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson. In reality, there are plenty of GOP politicians who share this belief to a certain extent when it comes to business, but take an opposite view on moral issues. There are also plenty of democrats who take a libertarian view on moral issues but take the exact opposite view on business issues. pick your poison.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

... Our large companies are so heavily invested overseas and in China in particular that we have to go the way the world goes. The greedy companies that went overseas to save a buck on taxes are going to be the hardest hit. I learned a long time ago, but I keep forgetting it when things are relatively good that when companies start looking at tax laws, cost cutting, and accounting tricks to show an increase in earnings rather introducing new and better products, a bear market is coming fast. Greed always implodes on itself sooner rather than later. It is just too bad the greedy bastards have to cause so much misery to so many innocent bystanders. ...

This a very good observation IMO.

Btw, I think right now it's all about China and it's spreading slowly and faster to .... Europe, South America other Asian countries and very soon to a business and street corner near you.

I think China (the second largest economy) is lying and has lied about their economic strength and growth. Otherwise, why would they devalue their currency and now cut their interest rate(s). They're manipulating the system and got caught and they're very smart in finances.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

This a very good observation IMO.

Btw, I think right now it's all about China and it's spreading slowly and faster to .... Europe, South America other Asian countries and very soon to a business and street corner near you.

I think China (the second largest economy) is lying and has lied about their economic strength and growth. Otherwise, why would they devalue their currency and now cut their interest rate(s). They're manipulating the system and got caught and they're very smart in finances.

It's difficult to gauge the impact that China's problems will have for the U.S. On one hand, the Chinese market amounts to something like 7.5% of American exports, so even if the Chinese tank, it's not the end of the world. On the other hand, China has quadrupled it's debt from 2008 from $7T to $28T, or almost 300% of GDP. Going into a global deflationary environment, that can't be good.

And you're probably correct - the government for China has been putting out suspicious numbers for years. Their interest rate cut and yuan devaluation moves in the last couple of weeks is their way of looking for a chair to sit in now that the music has stopped....

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

.......The greedy companies that went overseas to save a buck on taxes are going to be the hardest hit. I learned a long time ago, but I keep forgetting it when things are relatively good that when companies start looking at tax laws, cost cutting, and accounting tricks to show an increase in earnings rather introducing new and better products, a bear market is coming fast. Greed always implodes on itself sooner rather than later. It is just too bad the greedy bastards have to cause so much misery to so many innocent bystanders.......

Corporation X manufactures a widget outside the US and sells all of the widgets outside the US and uses all of the funds from the sale of the widgets to fund widget operations. So in your view Corporation X is greedy because it doesn't want to pay US income taxes at a 35% rate and a state tax of upwards of 10% on business having no nexus to the US?

Would you be greedy if you drove by a gas station selling gas for $3.00/gal to go to a station selling for $2.50/gal? Of course not, you would be prudent. But somehow if a corporation acts prudently they are branded as greedy.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Corporation X manufactures a widget outside the US and sells all of the widgets outside the US and uses all of the funds from the sale of the widgets to fund widget operations. So in your view Corporation X is greedy because it doesn't want to pay US income taxes at a 35% rate and a state tax of upwards of 10% on business having no nexus to the US?

Would you be greedy if you drove by a gas station selling gas for $3.00/gal to go to a station selling for $2.50/gal? Of course not, you would be prudent. But somehow if a corporation acts prudently they are branded as greedy.

Yes...but you are only telling half the story, Andy. There are also income shifting schemes which allow most big corporations to drastically slash the amounts that they pay to the IRS.

The US corporate tax may be 35%...but Google only paid an effective tax rate of 2.4% on its $5.5 billion annual revenue.