Dow and S&P Bear Market?

[Valuist]

This is the problem with all the QE that has been pumped out in the past 6 years. If the market had truly been allowed to bottom out, yes things would've been worse in 2009 and probably 2010. But you would've had a true bottom and a solid market to invest in. Fast forward to 2015 and you have a market with fantasy valuations thanks to all the QE and artificially low interest rates. Its not a healthy market, and a dangerous one to invest in.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

China blinked first.

China has been blinking for over a year, if you had bother to pay attention. They have known for at least two years they had a problem. They choose to take the conservative approach to their problems and their problems have snowballed as a result. They are going to have to take much strong action than they are currently to right the ship. Commodity producing countries like Brazil are going to be shit out of luck until China gets its house in order. Almost every country/region outside of the US is in a full blown recession currently. Only the dumbest right wing commenters on CNBC could think that we could keep it away forever. The plan for the US should be to ride it out with as little of pain as possible. With the idiots we have in control of congress right now and the goofballs running for president, it is highly unlikely that will be goal. We have candidates talking about some stupid wall and the term "Anchor Babies" instead of what they are going to do help small (and Mom and Pops) businessmen and middle class wage earners. Of course the tea partiers are eating it up as their futures are being sold off to the highest bidders, the Kochs or the Ricketts or Soros or the Arab oil barons or the flash traders on Wall Street. Pick which of the above you want controlling your future and vote accordingly. You can vote for Trump if want, but he won't be able to do much because of congress. Obama has found that out. The moneyed power brokers have a veto on everything. He only got the ACA through because they were so busy fighting among themselves, they did realize what was happening until it was too late. A mistake they are not likely to repeat anytime soon.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by Valuist

This is the problem with all the QE that has been pumped out in the past 6 years. If the market had truly been allowed to bottom out, yes things would've been worse in 2009 and probably 2010. But you would've had a true bottom and a solid market to invest in. Fast forward to 2015 and you have a market with fantasy valuations thanks to all the QE and artificially low interest rates. Its not a healthy market, and a dangerous one to invest in.

It lost half its value in 6 months, how low was it suppose to go. I think we were lucky to avoid a 1930's style depression. Currently the P/E ratios were not out of line for American companies. The problem with QE was it put money into the wrong hands, stock traders and large corporations. It should have gone into the hands of the consumer instead. Companies are not investing in new products or new plants even though they have the cash to do so because they know their potential customers do not have the money to buy their products. Plus our crazy tax laws encourage the dynamite duo of oversea investment and short term domestic investment. The way the capitol gains tax law is written, it far more profitable to flip a house or a building than it is to build new and better one. Heaven forbid, you buy and hold an apt or office building. Flipping is much more profitable. That can not be a good thing for the country as a whole let alone those people who want to invest long term.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

. With the idiots we have in control of congress right now and the goofballs running for president, it is highly unlikely that will be goal. We have candidates talking about some stupid wall and the term "Anchor Babies" instead of what they are going to do help small (and Mom and Pops) businessmen and middle class wage earners...... He only got the ACA through because they were so busy fighting among themselves, they did realize what was happening until it was too late. A mistake they are not likely to repeat anytime soon.

So with all the massive regulations and the ACA being heaped upon the small businesses and middle class wage earners, you believe that to be a good thing? There seems to be a prevailing "wisdom" among the left wing that only the government can help small business and wage earners and that more should be done. The burden from all of the "help" the government has already provided has stagnated the economy.

[Marshall Bennett]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Goren - did you vote for William Jennings Bryan?

Nearly everything in his post (#14) is wrong in one way or another.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

.......The problem with QE was it put money into the wrong hands, stock traders and large corporations. It should have gone into the hands of the consumer instead. Companies are not investing in new products or new plants even though they have the cash to do so because they know their potential customers do not have the money to buy their products. Plus our crazy tax laws encourage the dynamite duo of oversea investment and short term domestic investment. The way the capitol gains tax law is written, it far more profitable to flip a house or a building than it is to build new and better one. Heaven forbid, you buy and hold an apt or office building. Flipping is much more profitable. That can not be a good thing for the country as a whole let alone those people who want to invest long term.

QE hasn't provided consumers with lower mortgage rates and auto rates, etc.? What other methods would you suggest for getting the money into the hands of the consumer?

Do you really believe that buying a house, fixing it up and selling it for a profit is taxed as a capital gain? If you bought a house and did nothing for a year and sold it for a profit you would have a capital gain. Do you know of any person who doesn't appreciate a flipper buying in their neighborhood and upgrading properties? Or is the prevailing sentiment: "Don't touch that house, we like that dump just the way it is"?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

He only got the ACA through because they were so busy fighting among themselves, they did realize what was happening until it was too late. A mistake they are not likely to repeat anytime soon.

Obama didn't get the ACA through. Pelosi and Reid did that while Obama was touring the country campaigning for its passage with promises of $2500 savings while keeping your doctor and your plan. And Pelosi and Reid did that by bribing and/or strong arming Democratic members of Congress. Obama didn't have a clue what was in the bill or what the Dem leaders were doing to get it passed.

Congress and the rest of the country had to wait until the bill was passed to find out what was in it. Obama still doesn't know what is in it, and he doesn't care. All he knows or cares about is that there is a "universal" healthcare act in place and it has his name on it. He sees it and the Iran surrender as his legacy.

For once I agree with him. That is his legacy. I can't wait to see the ObamaScare and Iranian Nuke wings of his presidential library.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Goren - did you vote for William Jennings Bryan?

If I had been alive back then, I would have voted for one of Nebraska's favorite sons. The Gold Standard held back economic growth in this country from the Civil War until after WWII just as today the sound dollar policy has eliminated the once strong manufacturing base of this country. As late as 1980 manufacturing represented 23% of GDP. Today it is about 11%. The strong dollar has made it impossible for a US manufacturer to sell their oversea except for some very special products like airliners.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

The way the capitol gains tax law is written, it far more profitable to flip a house or a building than it is to build new and better one. Heaven forbid, you buy and hold an apt or office building. Flipping is much more profitable. That can not be a good thing for the country as a whole let alone those people who want to invest long term.

I forgot to mention that flipping houses not only results in income being taxed at the highest marginal rates for Fed and state it also results, in most cases, in income being subject to self-employment taxes. So after putting their money up for risk, putting in many hours of work, they get to share anywhere from 40% to 60% of their hard earned profits with their "partners" in the way of taxes. Sounds like a loophole that needs to be closed.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

As late as 1980 manufacturing represented 23% of GDP. Today it is about 11%.

How much of this is due to oppressive government regulation and burdensome taxes, imposed or at least tolerated by both sides of the aisle?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

China has been blinking for over a year, if you had bother to pay attention. They have known for at least two years they had a problem. They choose to take the conservative approach to their problems and their problems have snowballed as a result. They are going to have to take much strong action than they are currently to right the ship.

If you've known that China had a problem for the last 2 years, you are WAY behind the curve. China has been expanding credit and creating an artificial boom for so long I still had hair when they started. Now they are paying the piper and desperate to prop up their easy credit induced bubble.

[bks]

Originally Posted by Clocker

How much of this is due to oppressive government regulation and burdensome taxes, imposed or at least tolerated by both sides of the aisle?

It's due to the financial elites running the country and wanting it that way. They engineered gov't support for NAFTA and the other "free trade" agreements in order to tap every cheap labor source they could around the world. They don't give a sh*t about US persons who work for a living. They want everyone living precariously, and they're getting what they want.

The fact we're even having this discussion is grotesque. By the principles most of you libertarians espouse, every single major financial house deserved to go under in 2008. Every one. And yet you talk about "the economy" like there was no other choice but to:

1. recapitalize them with stolen US Treasury "Bailout" money,

2. so they could raise rates on everyone for a couple of years while the Fed promised to buy their sh*t paper for which there was no real market,

3. with the effect being those financial elites wound up "paying us back" for the money they stole from us in the first place. AIG stole $160 Billion dollars and Goldman Sachs was made whole the same day. Citigroup received more than $1 trillion in cash, loans, and asset guarantees. They're still around, and flourishing, because they run the country.

Any idiot can borrow money from a discount window for .25% and then buy USTs for 2-2.5% with it, wash rinse repeat, and be made whole again while he's impoverishing the country. Sickening, fraudulent, and standard operating procedure. Pure transfer of wealth.

[Valuist]

Pretty crazy today. Nobody was surprised at the deadcat bounce 2-3% rally for most of today. What people weren't expecting was the final 30 minutes wiped out all the gains. This market is sick.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bks

It's due to the financial elites running the country and wanting it that way. They engineered gov't support for NAFTA and the other "free trade" agreements in order to tap every cheap labor source they could around the world. They don't give a sh*t about US persons who work for a living. They want everyone living precariously, and they're getting what they want.

The fact we're even having this discussion is grotesque. By the principles most of you libertarians espouse, every single major financial house deserved to go under in 2008. Every one. And yet you talk about "the economy" like there was no other choice but to:

1. recapitalize them with stolen US Treasury "Bailout" money,

2. so they could raise rates on everyone for a couple of years while the Fed promised to buy their sh*t paper for which there was no real market,

3. with the effect being those financial elites wound up "paying us back" for the money they stole from us in the first place. AIG stole $160 Billion dollars and Goldman Sachs was made whole the same day. Citigroup received more than $1 trillion in cash, loans, and asset guarantees. They're still around, and flourishing, because they run the country.

Any idiot can borrow money from a discount window for .25% and then buy USTs for 2-2.5% with it, wash rinse repeat, and be made whole again while he's impoverishing the country. Sickening, fraudulent, and standard operating procedure. Pure transfer of wealth.

I think you need to distinguish between libertarians and mainstream republicans.

If libertarians had their way, we'd have a sound banking and monetary financial system. 2008 would never have even happened. But given that we don't and it did, many libertarians would have liked to have seen all the large financial institutions to be bailed out to save the jobs and to prevent the economy from collapsing, but the upper management that engaged in illegal and unethical dealings either jailed or thrown out and the system reformed.

[bks]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Pretty crazy today. Nobody was surprised at the deadcat bounce 2-3% rally for most of today. What people weren't expecting was the final 30 minutes wiped out all the gains. This market is sick.

Vastly, vastly overvalued. What are the odds we see 10K before 20K?