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Old 01-28-2021, 03:03 PM   #1
Robert Fischer
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Question The next Cloud Computing? Crowded Trade

Race 5 today at Aqueduct.

Eventful First time start. Mulligan on today's Speed Figure.
He'll have more chances to prove that later.

Broke a bit slow (have to re-watch), had to make up ground in a long drive, lost a bit of momentum after that hard work as they went on the turn, then a rival got loose and brave... And he 're-broke' in the stretch to run down the rival.

Similar to Cloud Computing, a MSW who stayed in NY for the winter, Klaravich, Chad Brown.

could be any type, but watch that race if you are a fan.
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Old 01-29-2021, 08:02 AM   #2
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I guess the board is hibernating a bit in winter, but we're starting to get some interesting Triple Crown Trail horses, and already some points.

hit this P5 a bunch of times (there was a huge false fav in race 4, and some logicals earlier, to set up singles to Crowded Trade in the 5th) but tore up my tickets prematurely. There's always another day to play...

this one could be any type.

I can't promise you that he'll sniff Cloud Computing, but this was fun.


As amazing as this tweet 'clip' is - it only does about half the justice, broke a bit slow and was in a long drive to even get anywhere near on the turn, then slightly lost some momentum/saving a path... even this alone is cool;
(He's the off the pace on the outside)

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Old 01-29-2021, 04:26 PM   #3
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Was climbing early then the rider checked briefly on far turn when he almost ran up the heels of the tiring 6-horse. Got a good setup with contested pace up front.

On pedigree wouldn't be surprised if he ended up on turf.

At any rate, I hope he isn't the next Cloud Computing (i.e., a disappointing one-hit wonder).
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Old 01-29-2021, 06:29 PM   #4
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The Aqueduct winter dirt track is a bog, hard to know how any of the horses will perform on a "regular" dirt surface. I generally line through those races when horses run somewhere else, similar to what I do with Los Al thoroughbred races at Del Mar and Santa Anita. For the most part, it has served me very well though there are always exceptions.
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Old 01-29-2021, 10:06 PM   #5
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Was climbing early then the rider checked briefly on far turn when he almost ran up the heels of the tiring 6-horse. Got a good setup with contested pace up front.

On pedigree wouldn't be surprised if he ended up on turf.

At any rate, I hope he isn't the next Cloud Computing (i.e., a disappointing one-hit wonder).
I don't know how completely blowing the break is a "good setup" but I thought it was a very promising debut. It was a relatively fast race and the runner up did not come back to the field at all.

He's unlikely to be in the Preakness, as he's a very different horse physically than Cloud Computing. We'll see, but he needs to start getting out of the gate when the races get tougher.

As for turf, given he's a More Than Ready that Chad Brown left in NY for the Winter, it feels like turf is only in his future if he fails going forward on the dirt.
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Old 01-29-2021, 11:30 PM   #6
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In the Prevalence thread I rated the three impressive maiden breakers from last Saturday........Crowded Trade is better than any of those horses.
He didn't like the inside(which is rare for a Chad horse).
He certainly didn't like the kickback.
He sort of runs with his head up in the air.
And he almost props early-turn(Give Manny Franco credit for keeping things composed).
Then Crowded Trade comes home like a locomotive the final 1/16th.
Monster in the making.
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Old 01-29-2021, 11:54 PM   #7
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I don't know how completely blowing the break is a "good setup" but I thought it was a very promising debut. It was a relatively fast race and the runner up did not come back to the field at all.
Good setup in terms of pace only (presuming he's a closing type). There was a strongly contested pace up front and once he recovered and got into stride down the backstretch he was in good position to capitalize if the frontrunners got rubber-legged. That's downplaying his tardy start, but the fact that he overcame that, the early climbing (which might have just been the kickback), and being checked off the tiring horse, stamps him as one to watch.

Maybe he'll pull a 180 once his gate issues are behind him and show speed; he certainly recovered better than the other 2 horses that broke poorly. In that respect maybe it was a blessing he missed out on mixing it up up front.

I expect the runner-up to be odds-on and to win by the length of the stretch all other things being equal next time out.

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As for turf, given he's a More Than Ready that Chad Brown left in NY for the Winter, it feels like turf is only in his future if he fails going forward on the dirt.
Hard to tell how the barn stratifies its runners during the winter, especially since it has mostly high quality stock. The horse didn't start working until mid-October last year and was kept at Monmouth at the time. Relatively speaking, he was not an expensive purchase. I figured the horse was left in NY because he was behind in terms of foundation and/or perhaps was not highly regarded previously.
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Old 01-30-2021, 12:29 PM   #8
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I expect the runner-up to be odds-on and to win by the length of the stretch all other things being equal next time out.


or (Hyperactive chris? - Watch List) could be a big bet against


Major point = Runner up got loose and brave. The field (perhaps weak) wasn't making up ground.


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Old 01-30-2021, 01:05 PM   #9
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or (Hyperactive chris? - Watch List) could be a big bet against


Major point = Runner up got loose and brave. The field (perhaps weak) wasn't making up ground.


I look at it as he was a first time starter that took some early heat and survived without getting visually tired down the lane. I suppose it depends on how strong the pace was (I'll leave that to figure makers); on raw time the 1/2 mile seemed to match up with other races on the card.

Other issues:

Like you said, not sure of the quality of the field which was mostly other first timers.

Not sure of Rudy Rodriguez stats with maidens, do they improve 2nd time out or go backwards?

At any rate, he was well clear of third and if Crowded Trade is any kind of prospect Hyperactive Chris will likely flatter him.
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Old 01-31-2021, 11:19 AM   #10
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Maybe he'll pull a 180 once his gate issues are behind him and show speed; he certainly recovered better than the other 2 horses that broke poorly. In that respect maybe it was a blessing he missed out on mixing it up up front.
I have no opinion on this horse because I haven't reviewed the day yet, but it's kind of ironic.

Some horses with speed are equally comfortable sitting off horses and finishing strongly. It just usually makes more sense to use their speed to get good position. However, on some surfaces on some days or with some race setups, breaking slowly, settling, and finishing fast late winds up being better than using the horse's speed as you typically would or even worse rushing up (even if you'd rather get out of the gate well).

I thought a high profile example of that was Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup. As great as he was at that time, a REAL LOT of horses made very deep closes well out on the track that day to win or finish close. People were over the top on that trip because of the bad start and ground loss, but he probably wasn't particularly disadvantaged that day on that surface against Gun Runner who was close up and never really liked an off track to begin with.
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