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Old 01-21-2021, 01:51 PM   #1
46zilzal
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I find the BIGGEST mistake than even some mildly competent players repeatedly undertake: FORGETTING that this is two games: an evaluation side, and a MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE gambling side..Once the handicapping process is done, WAIT....See if this investment is worth your time and money.

With simulcasting offering a race very few minutes, there should be a hard and fast rule: IF the odds offered on you choice(s) do not represent a probability on the board SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW (aka higher odds) than what your evaluation process shows, simply pass it by as a bad investment. With an ever changing odds board, this can be a challenge, but it does not take a lot of practice to project that a popular odds board choice will usually DROP the closer to post it is. Observing the board at each track will tell, through practice, just how long that process carries on after the race has started

Surely ANY rational investor, given, let's say in the real estate market, would never consider an investment in a property at 100K that was appraised and on the market for 103K, yet one sees over and over the same poor investment/profit ratio attempted in the parimutuel market all the time.....That small a profit, will NEVER buoy up a ROI to keep you in the black for all those following bets that did not prove to have materialized.

Also, if you have a documented long term inability to show a healthy profit on one surface (grass), distance, class level or particular oval (Hawthorne for me is horrible and always has been), it doesn't take a genius (although I see it admitted here all the time) to simply STAY AWAY from what you are less than adequate at doing. Work out a list of demographics: where you do well and where you don't and adhere to it. You can revisit a few now and again and play on paper to see if it has changed (I noticed Mahoning Valley for example changed for the better), but don't bet a nickel there until you see if evolve for the better.
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Old 01-21-2021, 06:38 PM   #2
therussmeister
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My observation is the thread title is missing an "s".
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Old 01-21-2021, 07:21 PM   #3
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
I find the BIGGEST mistake than even some mildly competent players repeatedly undertake: FORGETTING that this is two games: an evaluation side, and a MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE gambling side..Once the handicapping process is done, WAIT....See if this investment is worth your time and money.
I have a slightly different take on this sort of observation:
I think that any player that considers themselves “competent” at this game and doesn’t recognize that playing it is continually a double edged sword is only kidding themselves.
One edge being the selection process and the other being the practice of betting for value (and profit).
That’s not to say that the majority of players are just not “competent” for any number of reasons related to either one of these sword edges.
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Old 01-21-2021, 07:40 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
I find the BIGGEST mistake than even some mildly competent players repeatedly undertake: FORGETTING that this is two games: an evaluation side, and a MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE gambling side..Once the handicapping process is done, WAIT....See if this investment is worth your time and money.
Overlay - who posts here occasionally and advertises here has some excellent publications that I purchased from him that addresses this exact subject. Perhaps he'll check in and offer some insights.
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