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Old 01-20-2021, 08:18 PM   #1
SkunkApe
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Last Judgement in the Pegasus

I look at this horse, coming back after only week from a win against state-breds, and can’t help but thinking “Maker must know something.”

Third off the layoff after two races since Maker claimed him, distance and Bris speed figure progression, staying at the same track, and Dirty Paco aboard.

With him, Knicks, and and Sleepy probably the only speed, maybe he can walk around with an easy pace and get first jump.

At 20/1, I think I might bite.

Thoughts?
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Old 01-20-2021, 11:58 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkunkApe View Post
I look at this horse, coming back after only week from a win against state-breds, and can’t help but thinking “Maker must know something.”

Third off the layoff after two races since Maker claimed him, distance and Bris speed figure progression, staying at the same track, and Dirty Paco aboard.

With him, Knicks, and and Sleepy probably the only speed, maybe he can walk around with an easy pace and get first jump.

At 20/1, I think I might bite.

Thoughts?
If you're considering a horse @ 20-1,just ask yourself how you'd feel if he won and paid $42.00............and you got off him.
In terms of the race itself.......great betting race.
Knicks Go can't help but clear off by 2-3 lengths early,thinking Tax lays second........a few of them could be buched up in the third spot.
I hate making selections in races where Brad Cox has a horse nitroed up......but......I'll go with Code of Honor.....thought he loked good the final 1/8th of the Clark.
FWIW: I won't let Brad Cox knock me off a ticket,so I'll include Knicks Go on my P-3/4/5.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:26 AM   #3
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Speaking of the Pegasus, this years edition really stacks up well, might be better than the first two years. Whatever they were doing before, compared to what they are doing now, they might rethink it.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:36 PM   #4
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maybe

If doesn't quarterhorse and outbreak the expected pace projector, Last Jugment may be right there in that 2nd flight with Tax.


The GP post bias is real, but much depends on the inside horses breaking aggressively.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:43 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by SkunkApe View Post
I look at this horse, coming back after only week from a win against state-breds, and can’t help but thinking “Maker must know something.”

Third off the layoff after two races since Maker claimed him, distance and Bris speed figure progression, staying at the same track, and Dirty Paco aboard.

With him, Knicks, and and Sleepy probably the only speed, maybe he can walk around with an easy pace and get first jump.

At 20/1, I think I might bite.

Thoughts?

I know it's a lot easier to bash a 20-1 shot than to make a case for one, but I'd be surprised if he finishes better than 10th. With the short run into the turn & big field I think you're going to see a level of aggression from the other riders that you might not be expecting, and that easy pace or trip you may envision will not come close to materializing. GP was desperate to fill one more slot in the race when True Timber was a late scratch, they put the invite out there & the connections figured what the hell, I'm not under the impression this is some crafty move by Maker.



But you know, don't let one internet dissenter ruin your day if he somehow wins
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Old 01-22-2021, 12:49 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Speaking of the Pegasus, this years edition really stacks up well, might be better than the first two years. Whatever they were doing before, compared to what they are doing now, they might rethink it.
Tell me about it. Was looking over the field today and thought to myself, huh?
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Old 01-22-2021, 02:29 AM   #7
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I know it's a lot easier to bash a 20-1 shot than to make a case for one, but I'd be surprised if he finishes better than 10th. With the short run into the turn & big field I think you're going to see a level of aggression from the other riders that you might not be expecting, and that easy pace or trip you may envision will not come close to materializing. GP was desperate to fill one more slot in the race when True Timber was a late scratch, they put the invite out there & the connections figured what the hell, I'm not under the impression this is some crafty move by Maker.



But you know, don't let one internet dissenter ruin your day if he somehow wins

Yeah, good comments. I am trying to see easy early pace to overcome the post, as part of my “this horse is so obviously overmatched that Maker must know something that I don’t” theory.

And trying to get some Pegasus discussion going to further whet my appetite.

Last edited by SkunkApe; 01-22-2021 at 02:30 AM. Reason: Thought of something else.
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Old 01-22-2021, 08:37 AM   #8
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I'm keying Knicks Go but as was written earlier in the thread I won't be caught without a win bet on Last Judgment as well as Harpers First Ride.


https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...asus-world-cup
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Old 01-22-2021, 10:01 AM   #9
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the
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkunkApe View Post
“Maker must know something that I don’t” theory..
...

Also Dubb wouldn't mind having a player for the Pegasus, with a thriving, relatively fast horse whom Maker has given the green-light. He's a sportsman.

Honestly, I think they may have lucked-into a relatively good situation (depending on whether one or both Ortiz Bros. are aggressive and/or have the horses w/ requisite quickness)...

Cruising along with Tax, in the 2nd flight, behind a walkover loose Knicks Go, is a possibility.

It's a dice roll, but it is one of the plausible scenarios.

Unfortunately, if they do happen to roll 7-11, they still will have a hard time (and many will argue 'overmatched') with Tax for place/show, and it can't be ruled out that someone like the even trying to muster a rally against the flow and track.
( should be too slow, and the footnotes are wrong about the gate thing, but he was slightly uncomfortable on the rail last. Also I am an irrational fan of Albaugh horses in some of these races, rooting for a horse like this to luck into the mix from a somewhat favorable draw)


All of this is moot if Jose Ortiz can quarterhorse and play the first turn. Hell, even come out a touch to the 2+ path initially. - such a scenario changes things for the completely.
Maybe even bothers Tax.
Gives the a chance to be the 'price include'
Helps what's-his-name?, - the jock of the
etc..

who knows... I could be wrong, then if the ballpark idea is even true, the jock and team has to be aware, then the horse has to be capable ...
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Old 01-22-2021, 10:47 AM   #10
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Pace Projector is favorable for the (it's a Free Feature race for anyone who signs-up for www.timeformus.com ), - it shows him 2nd quickest, behind Knicks Go.

That's without even considering jockey tactics and a short dash to the 1st-turn.


If it works that way = bad news for
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Old 01-22-2021, 01:04 PM   #11
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.......................


re Knicks Go


I'm always wary of horses going longer than they've ever gone before - especially frontrunners -



*
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Old 01-23-2021, 04:53 PM   #12
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Let's put a few biggins up for the warm up act, Pegasus Turf.

Going with and here... 31/1 & 14/1 currently...because I'm all about longshots.
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Old 01-23-2021, 05:08 PM   #13
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And I'll go with Jesus' Team in the big race....cause...why not? Can't hurt...
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Old 01-23-2021, 05:46 PM   #14
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The #8 Harpers First Ride has earned his shot vs the big boys.
Building a tiny tri ticket around him at 25-1 with a win bet, just in case.
I think he runs well today
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Old 01-23-2021, 05:50 PM   #15
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The #8 Harpers First Ride has earned his shot vs the big boys.
Building a tiny tri ticket around him at 25-1 with a win bet, just in case.
I think he runs well today

I’m gonna finish typing this before he finishes
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