Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-15-2021, 12:38 PM   #16
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 20,889
Santa Cruiser - i'm of the opinion that he's a little out-classed here, but that he also is a bit better than he appears, especially if he can get into a race with some late flow.

unfortunately, a drop in class cancels a bunch of that value.

With this Risen Star race, where you had Senor Buscador wildly overbet, it wasn't really worth trying to get a horse up for 4th in a dime super. Just key Mandoulen or whatever his name and use with the 3 or 4 obvious contenders.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2021, 02:06 PM   #17
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,840
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
I went down with Santa Cruiser also.
Needless to say, i was disappointed in his race as well.
I think he got a bad ride (again) on Saturday...he needs a jockey that will put him in the race early. He has the pace figs to be among the early leaders but Beschizza chose to settle off the pace. He was 4-5 wide on the first turn, which is death on a tight turning track like FG.
Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree here, and this colt isn't much, but I'd love to see what he can do against Stakes runners if given the ride i think he needs.
Sadly though, i think his Derby trail ended over the weekend, and his connections may seek easier competition.
I agree.


It looks like those top few moved forward a bit anyway and it would have been tough for him even if he did get better position and save some ground. He was over 20-1. I can live with that bet.

I feel better about that one than the one I made in the Rachel Alexandra. I played Moon Swag to win and in exotics but not under the top 2 finishers.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 02-15-2021 at 02:08 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2021, 10:37 AM   #18
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 11,496
Santa Cruiser

Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I tried to get the Santa Cruiser into the exotics. I was disappointed in his effort. He was well beaten by the top 3 finishers in his previous race, but he got squeezed at the start and dropped far back in that race on a track that may have been mildly biased towards horses that were up close early in a race that flowed heavily towards the front. I thought he'd be a lot closer early yesterday and finish among that top group. He had a wide trip, but I didn't see much else. I have to watch all the replays.
Guess who's entered in the Southwest Stks this weekend at Oaklawn?
He looks up against it once again, although it's encouraging that Desormeaux is pushing on with him instead of trying easier company.
He should be a good price if we still have faith
__________________
Mise En Place
Ferme la bouche
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2021, 11:09 AM   #19
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,143
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Guess who's entered in the Southwest Stks this weekend at Oaklawn?
He looks up against it once again, although it's encouraging that Desormeaux is pushing on with him instead of trying easier company.
He should be a good price if we still have faith
Why is it encouraging that he continues to run this horse over its head?
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2021, 03:30 PM   #20
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 20,889
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Guess who's entered in the Southwest Stks this weekend at Oaklawn?
He looks up against it once again, although it's encouraging that Desormeaux is pushing on with him instead of trying easier company.
He should be a good price if we still have faith
Also rooting for Desormeaux's Santa Cruiser to keep improving.

Kind of a tough race for me to even make a fan bet on something like a bottom-Tri or Super... Only 7 entries, and two or three others who are a danger to make a belated move.

Decent field in terms of the chalks being worthy of some debate as to whether they are serious derby trail hopes. I don't have a great read of them yet TBH.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2021, 04:16 PM   #21
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,840
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
He looks up against it once again, although it's encouraging that Desormeaux is pushing on with him instead of trying easier company.
He should be a good price if we still have faith
It would be more encouraging if it was some other trainers (and I'll leave it at that ).

I didn't see much of an excuse for him in his last other than being wide. Last time I was just trying to get him into the exotics. I still think he's better than he looks, but this looks like an even tougher spot at the top.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 02-25-2021 at 04:23 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2021, 07:12 PM   #22
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 11,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Why is it encouraging that he continues to run this horse over its head?
Heard that.
What I meant was that (as a stubborn fan of this colt who still thinks he can be a Stakes caliber runner) I was happy that he's still trying.
On the other hand, he looks like he's in a tougher spot here than he was at FG.
He gets Eramia up this time...a 3% jock so far

I'm not expecting much on Saturday (nobody is)
__________________
Mise En Place
Ferme la bouche
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2021, 11:02 PM   #23
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,143
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Heard that.
What I meant was that (as a stubborn fan of this colt who still thinks he can be a Stakes caliber runner) I was happy that he's still trying.
On the other hand, he looks like he's in a tougher spot here than he was at FG.
He gets Eramia up this time...a 3% jock so far

I'm not expecting much on Saturday (nobody is)
Hang in there. Good chance you will be able to claim him by Summer:-)
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2021, 11:08 PM   #24
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,143
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Heard that.
What I meant was that (as a stubborn fan of this colt who still thinks he can be a Stakes caliber runner) I was happy that he's still trying.
On the other hand, he looks like he's in a tougher spot here than he was at FG.
He gets Eramia up this time...a 3% jock so far

I'm not expecting much on Saturday (nobody is)
I just noticed he's owned by Calumet. It's not trainer confidence. It's owner overconfidence.
the little guy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-26-2021, 01:10 PM   #25
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,840
I'm a way bigger fan of trainers like Brown, Pletcher, Shug, Baffert, Cox etc... sticking with a horse and demonstrating confidence than some other trainers (and again I'll leave it at that). It could mean they've seen something in recent works that makes them think the aggressive spot is the right one. They are also competent enough to know. I think they'd also be more likely to influence an overly aggressive owner (as many are) to not run unless he was showing something in his works that encouraged them to do so.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 02-26-2021 at 01:15 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-26-2021, 05:09 PM   #26
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,530
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I'm a way bigger fan of trainers like Brown, Pletcher, Shug, Baffert, Cox etc... sticking with a horse and demonstrating confidence than some other trainers (and again I'll leave it at that). It could mean they've seen something in recent works that makes them think the aggressive spot is the right one. They are also competent enough to know. I think they'd also be more likely to influence an overly aggressive owner (as many are) to not run unless he was showing something in his works that encouraged them to do so.
So you're saying you like Spielberg in this spot?
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-26-2021, 06:02 PM   #27
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,840
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
So you're saying you like Spielberg in this spot?
It's funny you asked because I was just wondering that.

In this case, I think it's likely he's avoiding his own monsters back in CA. However, you would think he knew this was not going to be the typical Grade 3 easier spot for a horse like Spielberg. Maybe he thinks the potential monsters in this race are not as good as the monsters in his own barn he knows well. Either way, this looks like a tough spot for Spielberg to get a win even if he thinks the horse is going to run better than in his last start and still has upside.

I like Jackie's Warrior to turn the tables on Essential Quality because I think he's moving from a race where he was compromised by pace to one where he'll probably shake loose. But I don't see much value in either opinion because I don't totally hate EQ just because he had a good setup last out.

I don't know anything about this race that everyone else doesn't also know. Unless I come up with a very strong opinion for 3rd or there's a bias, I'll be watching this race as a fan.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 02-26-2021 at 06:07 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-27-2021, 06:41 PM   #28
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,840
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
So you're saying you like Spielberg in this spot?
Second money in a 750K race was worth the trip. Better than 3rd, 4th, or whatever in the San Felipe running against his 2 big horses out there.

I have to watch the replays for paths, but I thought that track was not particularly kind to speed all day.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-27-2021, 07:20 PM   #29
taxicab
Registered User
 
taxicab's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 2,960
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Second money in a 750K race was worth the trip. Better than 3rd, 4th, or whatever in the San Felipe running against his 2 big horses out there.

I have to watch the replays for paths, but I thought that track was not particularly kind to speed all day.
The wider the better @ Oaklawn right now.
taxicab is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
preferred pick 5 type
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:48 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.