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Old 01-30-2021, 12:20 AM   #1
deelo
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Pick 4 bomb searching

Which of these do you think is true about the betting public concerning a Pick 4 wager for example...

1. Normally deepest in the first leg just wanting to be live to take a stand later.

2. Normally deepest in the last leg hoping to hit a random bomb if their stand gets through.

What I'm bascially wondering without having to do a bunch of manual spreadsheeting and payout lookup is does a sequence pay better if 3 chalks are linked to a 1st leg 20/1 versus a last leg 20/1?
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Old 01-30-2021, 01:00 AM   #2
Ray Donovon
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I always felt it was more productive if you get a decent price to start it.
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Old 02-02-2021, 01:44 PM   #3
SkunkApe
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From casual conversations and observations, I see a lot more people going shallow early and deep late, to avoid the psychological trauma of being “that close” but getting bombed out at the end.

That would imply that there is more “guess” money on tickets that are deep in the last leg, vs. the 1st.

Best thing, I think, is to avoid swinging wildly and play value, regardless of where it occurs.

Full disclosure: I’m as guilty as the next guy. If I’m alive after the first two legs of the P5, with a single in one of the remaining races, I’ll sometimes play a saver P3 by spreading a bit in the race that I singled in the P5. (Then lose both tickets on one of the other races, of course.)
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Old 02-02-2021, 02:52 PM   #4
Bennie
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I don't play the pick4 if I feel I need to go deep in any leg. A friend of mine will play deep in the first if he goes short in the final but will also go deep in the last if he can go short in the first. It all depends on the middle 2 legs. He will limit his play total accordingly. I will play between $4 and $8 while he will play between $18 and $24. Based on our results, I hit just as often as he does. Sometimes the same ones. Drives him crazy when I do that.
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Old 02-02-2021, 03:03 PM   #5
Nitro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deelo View Post
Which of these do you think is true about the betting public concerning a Pick 4 wager for example...
There is an alternative that many successful players utilize that eliminates a lot of the guesswork when playing multiple races.

Instead of playing the Pick-Whatever and being forced to play a predetermined sequence of races, why not do yourself a favor and simply Parlay the races that you feel most comfortable with?

You would also have an opportunity to pass or play those races based on the value that they might offer.
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Old 02-02-2021, 09:02 PM   #6
SkunkApe
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How does the takeout compare between pick 4s and parlays?
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Old 02-02-2021, 11:52 PM   #7
PIC6SIX
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Agree with the parlay statement. You would also not be straddled by inside money in a latter race and you also can see the horses on the track, if that is any help!!!
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Old 02-09-2021, 09:21 PM   #8
dryrunguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
There is an alternative that many successful players utilize that eliminates a lot of the guesswork when playing multiple races.

Instead of playing the Pick-Whatever and being forced to play a predetermined sequence of races, why not do yourself a favor and simply Parlay the races that you feel most comfortable with?

You would also have an opportunity to pass or play those races based on the value that they might offer.
.
Yeah. This.

I constantly take stock of and reevaluate my strengths and weakness. My strengths are generally sprint races on dirt involving claimers, allowance, stakes.

My weaknesses are maiden claiming races, maiden specials (to some degree), and turf route races.

So if I see two turf route races and a maiden claiming race in the sequence, I'll skip the sequence. I'm just not good enough yet.

But if I see a sequence with a turf route, a maiden race, and two dirt sprints, I'll give it a try. (Obviously, for me, four sprint races on dirt would be even better.)

Then, when it comes time to handicap the sequence, I start with the maiden race first; then the turf route; and then I do the dirt sprints last--generally giving myself the most coverage in the turf spring and the maiden race. So I routinely handicap the races out of order in terms of when they run.

But there are always surprises. Sometimes I give myself coverage in the turf route and the maiden race--and then realize one or both of the dirt sprints is far more difficult than I thought. And then I have to decide if I'm going to reduce my coverage in the turf route or the maiden race--or perhaps skip the sequence altogether simply because I'm not good enough yet to figure it out.

::

The BIGGEST mistake I make is handicapping all of the races in the sequence except one, and then I realize that the last race I handicap is far more difficult than I thought. And then I either: 1) Spend too much money on the sequence, or 2) start cutting horses off the ticket that ultimately go on to win. I need to say, "F*** this sequence!" more often, regardless of how much work and thought I have put into it.

Once I am better and more reliable at handicapping, then I may spend more time thinking about whether I want more coverage in the first or last races of the sequence. I'm not there yet. I'm still figuring out how to win sequences more consistently.
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