Finding "claimed from" trainers to avoid

[Milkshaker]

Traditional PP's show a trainer's win percentage first time off the claim.

Anyone out there have access to stats that are essentially the reverse--ie how well or poorly a given trainer's horses fare the first start after being claimed away?

[bob60566]

Try

Mitchell, Mullins, Hollondorfer.

Then add any 30% winning trainer of your choice.

Mac

[tbwinner]

Formulator lets you do this, and I'm sure other outlets do too, but it gets tedious as you have to go in for every trainer you're looking at.

[mistergee]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Try

Mitchell, Mullins, Hollondorfer.

Then add any 30% winning trainer of your choice.

Mac

makes sense to me, every track has their miracle workers, if someone is dumb enough to claim from them just throw m out

[BIG49010]

Calabrese / ? Canani/ ? Ziadie most don't do to well off the claim from these guys, but trainers claim off them and down the tubes they go!!

Once in a blue moon, they do loose a good one, Marty Wolfson won a stake last year with a horse he claimed off them. Several years ago Calabrese lost a horse that ended up winning the Lonestar Derby.

Peter Walder is a tough guy to improve on also.

[Striker]

Originally Posted by BIG49010

Calabrese / ? Canani/ ? Ziadie most don't do to well off the claim from these guys, but trainers claim off them and down the tubes they go!!

Once in a blue moon, they do loose a good one, Marty Wolfson won a stake last year with a horse he claimed off them. Several years ago Calabrese lost a horse that ended up winning the Lonestar Derby.

Peter Walder is a tough guy to improve on also.

3 of the success stories off Calabrese owned horses are-

1. Exchanging Kisses-- Claimed by Monique Cameron for Richard Glander in June 2010. Funny story here as Danny Miller had some Calabrese horses and then was quickly fired and Exchanging Kisses was 1 of those horses. I don't have any proof but I am taking a stab that Miller was scared to list himself on the claim after he was fired, as Monique Cameron has never trained for Richard Glander to my knowledge, and Glander has been one of Millers owners for a long time now. Horse goes up to Canterbury for Cameron in a starter stakes(finishes 5th I believe) and then shows up a month later with Miller listed as the trainer now and wins an Aoc nw3x. Horse has won 3 races since the claim, yes that is a success off Calabrese.

2. Embers Glowing--Claimed by Ingrid Mason on 6/5/2010. Horse has won 5 times since the claim.

3. Its Never to Late-- Claimed from Miller and Calabrese for 32k Jan of 2010. Horse has won 8 times and has been in recent overnight stakes races at Tampa and GP.

I'm sure there are some more good claims of those guys but the list of claims off them is real long, and the horses that have turned out well for others is not so much.

[Dahoss9698]

Took me a little while to find it, but there was a thread about this a few years ago.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=76351

I'm going to look and see if things have changed much, but I doubt it. For example, in the last 5 years, horses claimed from Juan Carlos Guerrero:

68 starters
4% winners
$ 0.20 ROI

When he claims a horse:

136 starters
43% winners
$ 2.62 ROI


Pretty incredible

[Dahoss9698]

Hollendorfer really doesn't belong in this discussion based on the stats.

When he claims a horse:

292 starters
26% winners
$ 1.64 ROI


When he gets claimed from:

337 starters
20% winners
$1.45 ROI


When Mike Mitchell claims a horse:

185 starters
32% winners
$ 2.73 ROI

When he gets claimed from

191 starters
13% winners
$ 1.19 ROI

[castaway01]

This angle makes sense (look at those Guerrero stats), but from the limited research I've done I found that a lot of time these horses don't get bet next start anyway. It would be nice to see the horse running for the new 2 percent barn and going off at 7-5, but often the horse is either too ambitiously placed or people notice the trainer change and the horse is 12-1. Actually, I guess it's that the horse got bet in the past because of the 35% trainer, but now they're not bettting 2 percent Jones. It might be a good idea to start with trying to beat the ML favorites claimed from supertrainers. Not sure how that would turn out but it would help focus on beating horses that will draw some money.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't have the numbers to give but horses claimed from Jamie Ness go down quick and when he claims them,usually within 2 starts they win at a higher level and jump in speed figures by 10-20 points.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I don't have the numbers to give but horses claimed from Jamie Ness go down quick and when he claims them,usually within 2 starts they win at a higher level and jump in speed figures by 10-20 points.

When Jaime Ness claims a horse:

449 starters
35% winners
$ 1.91 ROI

Jaime Ness 2nd off the claim

365 starters
32% winners
$ 1.82 ROI


When he gets claimed from:

322 starters
17% winners
$ 1.49 ROI


The 2nd off the claim stats are almost unbelievable.

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Jaime Ness 2nd off the claim

365 starters
32% winners
$ 1.82 ROI

Do the 2nd off stats include those horses that won 1st off?

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

Do the 2nd off stats include those horses that won 1st off?

Yes

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

When Jaime Ness claims a horse:

449 starters
35% winners
$ 1.91 ROI

Jaime Ness 2nd off the claim

365 starters
32% winners
$ 1.82 ROI


When he gets claimed from:

322 starters
17% winners
$ 1.49 ROI


The 2nd off the claim stats are almost unbelievable.

I was looking through Tampa forms from this meet and last looking for whatever,I love to do it from time to time,and the 2nd start off the claim really jumps off the page in Ness horse's PP's.A lot of them win directly off the claim but that 2nd start they blow up.A lot of risers jumping 10-20 speed figure points.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm fascinated with this stuff for some reason.

When Chris Englehart (one of my favorite trainers) claims a horse:

173 starters
29% winners
$ 1.50 ROI


Englehart 2nd off the claim

153 starters
32% winners
$ 2.13 ROI


When Englehart gets claimed from

126 starters
17% winners
$1.80 ROI