Mountaineer Saturday card - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Valuist · 08-05-2011, 10:10 AM

Kudos to Mountaineer for a great racing and betting card on Saturday. Felt they deserve their own thread.

Still have a bit more handicapping to do but thought two heavy morning line favorites are vulnerable: Immortal Eyes probably deserves favoritism but 7-5 in a 12 horse field? At that price he becomes a go-against. And Fabulous Strike at even money? I did a double take when I saw that. Based on his 2011 form, there's no reason to think he's anywhere near the horse he was years ago.

Sparky13 · 08-05-2011, 11:01 AM

Never really bet on Mountaineer races. How do you take into account the odd track configeration in your handicapping?

Valuist · 08-05-2011, 11:14 AM

I don't. Some horses like the track and others don't. I played the track quite a bit from 2006-2008. I try to avoid preconceived notions when I play a track.

cj · 08-05-2011, 12:47 PM

I think it is safe to say Rule won't be running since he won yesterday at Saratoga.

Valuist · 08-05-2011, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I think it is safe to say Rule won't be running since he won yesterday at Saratoga.

I had already drawn a line thru him. The scratch of Rule would mean even less speed in the 7th. I don't know if Cryptolight will win but I don't see Demarcation outfinishing him like he did in last year's running.

DigitalDownsJoe · 08-05-2011, 01:30 PM

On a side note about mountanieer...D Parker is often bet way below value, I have found O Pereria and E Oro are just as good Jockeys and can often get much better prices on them. I also tend to like the middle to outside posts in the 5-6f races..They seem to have an edge especially if they get out of the gate good.

Valuist · 08-05-2011, 02:33 PM

When I was playing Mnr regularly it did seem like the outside was more often better than the inside. But not every day.

I don't think we need to worry about Parker being overbet, at least on Saturday. With Bejarano, Cornelio, Talamo, Borel, Lanarie, Garcia and Graham in town, the local riders don't figure to draw much money.

Qstick333 · 08-05-2011, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

Kudos to Mountaineer for a great racing and betting card on Saturday. Felt they deserve their own thread.

Still have a bit more handicapping to do but thought two heavy morning line favorites are vulnerable: Immortal Eyes probably deserves favoritism but 7-5 in a 12 horse field? At that price he becomes a go-against. And Fabulous Strike at even money? I did a double take when I saw that. Based on his 2011 form, there's no reason to think he's anywhere near the horse he was years ago.

I agree with both of those points. If the 2nd race was longer, I would worry about the speed battle between Immortal Eyes and the 12, Dazzled Saint. At 4.5f, not as much of a concern.

I was rather surprised at the 1:1 as well...

Good points,

Zach

mountainman · 08-06-2011, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist

Kudos to Mountaineer for a great racing and betting card on Saturday. Felt they deserve their own thread.

Still have a bit more handicapping to do but thought two heavy morning line favorites are vulnerable: Immortal Eyes probably deserves favoritism but 7-5 in a 12 horse field? At that price he becomes a go-against. And Fabulous Strike at even money? I did a double take when I saw that. Based on his 2011 form, there's no reason to think he's anywhere near the horse he was years ago.

Much appreciated. We worked like crazy to put it together. Incidentally, I think Fabulous Strike is EXTREMELY shakey, but Immortal Eyes deserving of strong favoritism.

Valuist · 08-06-2011, 03:11 PM

Where's TVG or HRTV? I can't believe that those small fields at Mth or the NW2 claimers at LaD are better betting races than Mnr today.

lamboguy · 08-06-2011, 03:35 PM

congraduolations to the SILLY GOOSE STABLES, ONEFAST, for winning the 3rd race stakes handicap with D'WILD RIDE. he won this race inspite of me because i urged him to run the horse last week in monmouth and she got stuck in a bad paced race for her, MIKE LUZZI didn't abuse her and she was right back in today and won the race. he is now 5 for 5 at the moutain. i am real happy for one of the nicest people on this board and am very proud of his horse overcoming my stupidity.

picojim · 08-06-2011, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

congraduolations to the SILLY GOOSE STABLES, ONEFAST, for winning the 3rd race stakes handicap with D'WILD RIDE. he won this race inspite of me because i urged him to run the horse last week in monmouth and she got stuck in a bad paced race for her, MIKE LUZZI didn't abuse her and she was right back in today and won the race. he is now 5 for 5 at the moutain. i am real happy for one of the nicest people on this board and am very proud of his horse overcoming my stupidity.

actually Bejarano rode her

Some_One · 08-06-2011, 04:34 PM

Amateur hour at the Mountain continues, looks like they sprung the hatch when Velasquez wasn't ready yet on Fabulous Strike and ended up on the ground 2 strides out of the gate.

Tom · 08-06-2011, 05:20 PM

Good card. I played last night to get the feel of the track.
Will be playing tonight for sure.

firstoffclaim · 08-06-2011, 05:22 PM

Mountaineer has a long history of screw ups having to do with bad steward decisions,gate trouble etc