Will Belmont even have a meet this year?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Let me go back to the thread topic...since I'm usually correct about things in the end.

a) there will almost certainly be a Belmont meet this year

b) and unless some more craziness crops up between now and August, there will very likely be a Saratoga meet, with or without fans in live attendance

Here are my predictions:

1. I think most likely at some point the argument for bringing back racing- without spectators and with strict controls, along the lines of what Gulfstream does and Santa Anita proposes- becomes unanswerable. So I certainly think you'll see some spectator-less racing at Belmont. Whether it happens in May or in June I don't know.

2. There will be no fans at any major sporting event in the United States until at least the fall, and very possibly 2021. If any fans are allowed into a major sporting event in the fall, it will be under social distancing protocols- crowds will be very sparse.

3. I highly doubt NYRA will move its operation to Saratoga to operate without spectators. But if they try to, Gov. Cuomo will likely prohibit it, because New York City's infection rate makes such a massive move a terrible idea.

4. The 2020 Kentucky Derby will not be run.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Umm... no.

I say that because with each and every passing day we are learning new things about the virus and the current pandemic.

The following article was posted by Lamboguy in The Coronavirus thread. Right now as I type this, that thread is almost 300 pages long - so I am reposting it here in an effort to make it easier to find.

The Only Man Who Has A Clue:
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...ho-has-a-clue/

Imo, the article is a long but very worthwhile read.

For those who don't want to read through the entire article, the author interviews Nassim Taleb and makes the point that epidemiologists are not the experts whose predictions we should be relying on - because epidemiologists are treating things that cannot possibly be known in their models as if they are fact.

Imo, this is the exact same reason such a high percentage of horseplayers fail in their chosen endeavor.


Carry on,

-jp

.

So a random website that nobody's ever heard of and which is not peer reviewed says that epidemiologists, who complete at least 9 years of study in microbiology classes at the best universities in the world, places like Harvard and Stanford, and who conduct and publish peer reviewed studies, are completely out to lunch.

And Nassim Taleb, by the way, is a STOCK TRADER. He literally has zero qualifications here.

Personally, I think any opinion on epidemiology that is not supported by citations to epidemiologists starts out with a 1 percent likelihood of being true, maybe less. Let's listen to the scientists and stop latching on to nutballs simply because you might like what they say better.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

For God's sake, it's APRIL people...A lot WILL change...

Ergo the word if was used!

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

So a random website that nobody's ever heard of and which is not peer reviewed says that epidemiologists, who complete at least 9 years of study in microbiology classes at the best universities in the world, places like Harvard and Stanford, and who conduct and publish peer reviewed studies, are completely out to lunch.

And Nassim Taleb, by the way, is a STOCK TRADER. He literally has zero qualifications here.

Personally, I think any opinion on epidemiology that is not supported by citations to epidemiologists starts out with a 1 percent likelihood of being true, maybe less. Let's listen to the scientists and stop latching on to nutballs simply because you might like what they say better.

A stock trader? Really? You couldn't come up with anything better than that to try and diminish a man with impeccable credentials? Perhaps your expert epidemiologists could have been better served with such a background before coming out with their wildly incorrect predictions.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by groupie doll

No, and that's not what I was responding to...

I appreciate your experience with the mask, good info to know. I am still suggesting that greatly ramping up the production would serve everyone better. I wouldn't dismiss widespread use of the mask just because it would involve educating the new users.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I appreciate your experience with the mask, good info to know. I am still suggesting that greatly ramping up the production would serve everyone better. I wouldn't dismiss widespread use of the mask just because it would involve educating the new users.

Agreed.
Hopefully this comes to fruition : https://www.afmc.af.mil/News/Article...ntract-awards/

[cj]

Well, this got back on track for a little while but didn't last. Plenty of discussions in off topic for those that want to continue.