HOLY BULL STAKES

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Fierceness and
Sea Streak

were against the track configuration

I don't hold that as highly significant due to the tradeoff with that significant forward speed favoring setup.

Domestic Product was against the setup, but his trip was extremely efficient. Bodes well for possessing the fundamentals and class, but a little brilliance would be nice. That would put him in contention for the Triple Crown Series

I realize this is Chad Brown and the horse can certainly improve.


Both replay and 'setup' are clear: Domestic Product got the best trip in the race - BY FAR. That he couldn't get by the winner after that trip is


Retrain the model

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

The pace for this race was a joke and probably led to the slow-ish final time. The figure is the figure, but I'm not putting much stock in it one way or the other in this case.

This is one of those situations where you are probably better off looking at the race qualitatively. There was a reason Fierceness was .20 - 1 besides his own big race in the Juvenile. To me it looked more like a decent NW2 ALW for 2nd or 3rd tier future stakes types than a field a field of lightly raced Derby prospects. Even if he was short he figured to win.

Interesting that Hades came into the race with an 84 Beyer off his big win that has since been upgraded to 90 after the win Saturday.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Interesting that Hades came into the race with an 84 Beyer off his big win that has since been upgraded to 90 after the win Saturday.

Here are the PPs

[wiretowire68]

Haaaa. huh.... never believe the hype. in any 3rd old. If there are horsemen or horsewomen on here, horses change and grow at their own genetic response. The horse was a huge question mark going into the Breeders Cup Juvenile because he bounced so bad. I was not shocked to see Pletcher's horse lose.. Come on...this why Pletcher picks his spots... there is a reason he gets overrated and there is a reason why he is one of the best of all time. When you have a full deck of cards, you do not reveal your hand and guaranteed, he has seen this a million times in his horses turning 2-3. He always comes up with 1/2 that are really good going into the Derby. Lets wait and see how the horse rebounds... me personally, not sold on him but Pletcher may look at the pattern the way he runs and give him 1 more.. to me the horse has huge issues.. Forte... to me was one talented horse but the lay offs for whatever reason made him kind of lazy ... The best 3 year old last year to me was the horse that had to retire, he was my pick in the derby and to me Larry Rivelli had him...going great and this horse was going to get better and injury. The Two Phil's was the most consistent horse.. going into the derby, the Ohio Derby and his prep races were consistent.... It is a complete crap shoot, Mage peaked, The Preakness he tried so hard and the horse was not the same afterwards.. The breeding lately is killing their stamina, not adding to it, this is why the long layoffs as oppose to running them.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is one of those situations where you are probably better off looking at the race qualitatively. There was a reason Fierceness was .20 - 1 besides his own big race in the Juvenile. To me it looked more like a decent NW2 ALW for 2nd or 3rd tier future stakes types than a field a field of lightly raced Derby prospects. Even if he was short he figured to win.

Interesting that Hades came into the race with an 84 Beyer off his big win that has since been upgraded to 90 after the win Saturday.

Unless the preps in March have better races on the under card I take the figures for these early preps as a work in progress. The preps in April are the biggest race days for these winter and early spring meets. Those figures held up last year with better predictive value for the summer and fall races.

I think Fierceness 2 bad races are due to something other than he ran slow. For some reason he didn't feel comfortable. It might be he gets competitive when challenged outside. Maybe he just needs an easy lead...? It could anything, but in 2 races he didn't run a step after switching leads. I don't think it's because he wasn't capable.

[racenomics]

Originally Posted by bisket

I think Fierceness 2 bad races are due to something other than he ran slow. For some reason he didn't feel comfortable. It might be he gets competitive when challenged outside. Maybe he just needs an easy lead...? It could anything, but in 2 races he didn't run a step after switching leads. I don't think it's because he wasn't capable.

Maybe he just dosen’t care unless 25k+ people are there.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bisket

I think Fierceness 2 bad races are due to something other than he ran slow. For some reason he didn't feel comfortable. It might be he gets competitive when challenged outside. Maybe he just needs an easy lead...? It could anything, but in 2 races he didn't run a step after switching leads. I don't think it's because he wasn't capable.

The start of the race was messy. He got bumped from both sides. A couple of other horses bumped also. So many of them bumped early it probably contributed to the slow early fractions. He was also up close while wide being used a bit after that.

IMO it wasn't a comfortable trip.

That said, even if you assume he was a bit short and adjust the performance up for the trip, imo really good horses have the reserve energy and competitiveness to run right through things like that. It's one thing if you have a rough trip and lose to a similar rival. He lost to "meh" field. This is the 2nd time things didn't go well and he came up empty.

His debut was on an off track that was kind to speed and imo he got a really nice trip in the Juvenile. He might just be a horse with good speed that looks better than he is when he's comfortable but not a Derby winner quality horse that can take some heat and still win. We'll find out.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The start of the race was messy. He got bumped from both sides. A couple of other horses bumped also. So many of them bumped early it probably contributed to the slow early fractions. He was also up close while wide being used a bit after that.

IMO it wasn't a comfortable trip.

That said, even if you assume he was a bit short and adjust the performance up for the trip, imo really good horses have the reserve energy and competitiveness to run right through things like that. It's one thing if you have a rough trip and lose to a similar rival. He lost to "meh" field. This is the 2nd time things didn't go well and he came up empty.

His debut was on an off track that was kind to speed and imo he got a really nice trip in the Juvenile. He might just be a horse with good speed that looks better than he is when he's comfortable but not a Derby winner quality horse that can take some heat and still win. We'll find out.

To say the least the start was messy. I went back, looked at the chart and rewatched the start a few times. The 8 broke inward, which affected the 3 horses to his inside (7, 6, and 4). There was also some mild bumping between the 2 and 3 at the start, though that probably didn't affect the outcome at all. Basically the only horse that got a really clean break was the winner, who also got an easy lead.

[Hoops McCann]

i think the main problem was the hard hold the jock put on him on the backstretch. i'm sure they wanted to teach him to sit off of horses but it didn't work. he would've been much better off if they had let him roll.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

I realize this is Chad Brown and the horse can certainly improve.


Both replay and 'setup' are clear: Domestic Product got the best trip in the race - BY FAR. That he couldn't get by the winner after that trip is


Retrain the model

He didn't run some monster race, but he made up a little ground against a forward flow.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He didn't run some monster race, but he made up a little ground against a forward flow.

Define 'forward flow'

[bisket]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Define 'forward flow'

Robert might have a little different meaning, but the winner wasn't coming back to the field. He had a slow pace, and was still running with energy. A faster pace and the field will be tailing off and easier for a horse coming off the pace to catch. So Domestic Product was able to pass some horses even though he didn't pace set up.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by bisket

Robert might have a little different meaning, but the winner wasn't coming back to the field. He had a slow pace, and was still running with energy. A faster pace and the field will be tailing off and easier for a horse coming off the pace to catch. So Domestic Product was able to pass some horses even though he didn't pace set up.

I think you nailed it.

[the little guy]

Domestic Product was right on the heels of the pace. Hard to say he was in any way compromised. Did the winner have a slightly better trip? Probably, but it was marginal and not as big as the final margin. Domestic, who I sure wish had won, had no actual excuse. Maybe if he lost by a head or neck you could argue he was best. Maybe.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Domestic Product was right on the heels of the pace. Hard to say he was in any way compromised. Did the winner have a slightly better trip? Probably, but it was marginal and not as big as the final margin. Domestic, who I sure wish had won, had no actual excuse. Maybe if he lost by a head or neck you could argue he was best. Maybe.

would have been worthy of a 'Trips & Traps' segment back in the day;


If both were hypothetically entered in the Fountain of Youth, you may expect to see Hades at a shorter price than Domestic Product.

That doesn't mean I'm going to a loan shark to bet Domestic Product.


If I have some kind of gimmick such as a 'Dime Superfecta', then an opinion of how much classier Domestic Product is than Hades ( a very cool horse in his own right ) provides me with a an edge albeit of a low hit rate.


I wish he was a windfall life-changing darkhorse, but he's just a mildly valuable opinion.