Probability percentage from a rating

[PaceAdvantage]

This is a perfect example of why people who don't know what they are talking about when it comes to a certain subject (value betting lines) really should not try to school people on said subject (value betting lines).

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I know that some believe that their odds lines reflect true value. And odds line are fun to make. Still, an odds line is only as good as the predictive powers of the odds maker. When it's time to wager, if our goal is profit, one must be honest and realize that they are in the dark about which horse will win and what these horses are really worth. There is only one absolute truth in handicapping: Good handicapping defeats random odds. Anything else is a guess. And that's no hogwash.

And better handicapping , with a learning component (i.e. gauging how well your methods work in order to make adjustments and actually making those adjustments) defeats "good handicapping."

Most people just will not make the effort.

I have found that the key to finding value is to track who you toss out in a race. Ask yourself this question: "When I toss out a horse (that ultimately goes off at) below 7/2, how much do those horses lose?"

If the answer to that question is, a $net of $1.30 or less, then you should be able to throw darts in those races and break even or better because there is enough pool money to recover the takeout.

In other words, if your low odds toss outs are losing 35% per wagered dollar, you should have no problem finding value in those races.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

And better handicapping , with a learning component (i.e. gauging how well your methods work in order to make adjustments and actually making those adjustments) defeats "good handicapping."

Most people just will not make the effort.

I have found that the key to finding value is to track who you toss out in a race. Ask yourself this question: "When I toss out a horse (that ultimately goes off at) below 7/2, how much do those horses lose?"

If the answer to that question is, a $net of $1.30 or less, then you should be able to throw darts in those races and break even or better because there is enough pool money to recover the takeout.

In other words, if your low odds toss outs are losing 35% per wagered dollar, you should have no problem finding value in those races.

Funny, I believe the opposite. When my 7/2 horse goes up in odds is it because the barn or smart money know not to bet him? Wow! Odds as a red herring?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

This is a perfect example of why people who don't know what they are talking about when it comes to a certain subject (value betting lines) really should not try to school people on said subject (value betting lines).

The average race has 7 or 8 horses in a field. The public picks better than 1 out of 3 and the rookie handicapper should pick about 1 out of 4 or 5. All of which are less than the average size of a field which are an indisputable facts. Now with your righteous indignation, lets see your proof.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The average race has 7 or 8 horses in a field. The public picks better than 1 out of 3 and the rookie handicapper should pick about 1 out of 4 or 5. All of which are less than the average size of a field which are an indisputable facts. Now with your righteous indignation, lets see your proof.

Righteous indignation? I prefer to call it fact telling.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Building an odds line should only be understood as playing with numbers. What would be the predictive assertion be worth when our top choice is wrong at least two-thirds of the time? Odds line are more self serving as our own tribute to our systems and logic. In practice, they are useless. I too suffer from this ailment from loving my numbers. That's why we are handicappers.

Al, no disrespect meant, but if I wanted the opinions of others, regarding whether or not an oddsline is a worthy endeavor, I would have asked that in the first post. Since I didn't, then why do you even post this stuff? Start your own thread on that topic please. Most of us here are adults, who can think for ourselves.

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by raybo

Al, no disrespect meant, but if I wanted the opinions of others, regarding whether or not an oddsline is a worthy endeavor, I would have asked that in the first post. Since I didn't, then why do you even post this stuff? Start your own thread on that topic please. Most of us here are adults, who can think for ourselves.

He has, many times. But that's not enough. ALL threads that mention odds lines need to be rescued by Capper Al lest we ever forget we shouldn't be talking about such useless instruments. It is for your own good, you see. Once you come around and think correctly, you'll thank him...

[Dave Schwartz]

Funny, I believe the opposite. When my 7/2 horse goes up in odds is it because the barn or smart money know not to bet him? Wow! Odds as a red herring?

I am thinking you did not understand what I said.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by raybo

Al, no disrespect meant, but if I wanted the opinions of others, regarding whether or not an oddsline is a worthy endeavor, I would have asked that in the first post. Since I didn't, then why do you even post this stuff? Start your own thread on that topic please. Most of us here are adults, who can think for ourselves.

Fair enough.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Righteous indignation? I prefer to call it fact telling.

Then we are the facts?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I am thinking you did not understand what I said.

Maybe so. But what find more difficult is the reverse when my 7/2 goes off at 8/1. More times than not it's not a value play.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

He has, many times. But that's not enough. ALL threads that mention odds lines need to be rescued by Capper Al lest we ever forget we shouldn't be talking about such useless instruments. It is for your own good, you see. Once you come around and think correctly, you'll thank him...

You're actually right about some of that except I'm not expecting any thanks. I like to talk about what works.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by raybo

Lots of things to read and mess with. Thanks guys!

Good luck.

Sounds like you're getting into Bayes or maybe you can apply Monte Carlo simulation to improve the initial odds e.g., given the odds as presented insert the effect of variables such as slop, trainer ITM%, jockey ITM% etc.

Steveb once provided a flowchart as I recall which showed a method of using iterations to improve a factor's results at least that's the way I interpreted it.

[Speed Figure]

Al, should get back to his rewrite!

[098poi]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Al, should get back to his rewrite!

You need to replace the ribbon in your typewriter.